Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

After being scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday because of elbow soreness, Todd Wellemeyer is expected to rejoin the rotation this weekend. He’s set to throw a bullpen session Tuesday after saying Monday that the injury “is nothing serious.” (Rotoworld)

As expected, Todd Wellemeyer will miss his scheduled start Tuesday because of elbow inflammation. An MRI on Todd Wellemeyer’s inflamed right elbow Friday showed no structural damage. Mitchell Boggs will get the nod. “It’s nothing serious,” said Wellemeyer. “I felt it after my start against Pittsburgh and again Thursday’s game. It was enough to get it checked out.” He’ll throw a bullpen session Tuesday and expects to avoid the disabled list. Wellemeyer has already eclipsed his career high for innings in a season, so it’s not much of a surprise that he’s having inflammation issues. (Rotoworld)

Todd Wellemeyer held the Pirates to one run in seven innings to pick up his fourth win of the season on Wednesday night. Wellemeyer allowed just two hits in the dominant effort, striking out five and walking three. Wellemeyer came out for the eighth for the first time in his career, but was taken out after giving up a lead-off single. That run came around to score, doing the only damage against him. He was helped by a great play from Rick Ankiel, however, who robbed Adam LaRoche of home run. He should do well in San Diego next week.

There’s little in the underlying numbers to suggest that Wellemeyer’s hot start is fluky, in that his BABIP (.273 entering Wednesday) and strand rate (.745) aren’t far from his career averages. Wellemeyer has won his last two decisions and has allowed three earned runs over his last three starts spanning 18 innings (1.50 ERA). He also has 47 strikeouts in 55 innings this season. He has been a better than expected arm for St. Louis and is worth using as a No. 5 or No. 6 Fantasy SP in mixed leagues. As long as he limits the damage with the long ball, Wellemeyer should stay the course and prove to be a very good back of the rotation fantasy starter. (Rotoworld, Rotowire, CBS Sports)

Todd Wellemeyer held the Brewers to two unearned run over six innings in a no-decision on Friday. Wellemeyer was in line for the win, but that was blown. His owners can take heart that he no longer has to worry about his job following Mark Mulder’s setback this week. He has a 3.56 ERA after eight starts. (Rotoworld)

Todd Wellemeyer yielded two runs and three hits in five innings Sunday in a victory over the Cubs. Wellemeyer improved to 3-1. Oddly, his two shortest starts of the year have resulted in victories. He’s 1-1 with three no-decisions when going six innings or longer. He allowed two runs on three hits and two walks, striking out four. He also bounced back from two straight starts in which he allowed four earned runs. The Cards could pull Wellemeyer from the rotation when Mark Mulder returns later this month, but they’d likely be downgrading. Even if it happens, Wellemeyer would be worth holding on to in NL-only leagues. Wellemeyer has still been little more than passable in his last five starts, compiling a 4.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He’s still a decent start in mixed leagues, but think of him more as a matchups type than a must-have. His next start is scheduled for Friday at Milwaukee. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

Cardinals SP Todd Wellemeyer took his first loss of the season Monday against the Reds, but he settled down after the beginning. He allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in six innings, striking out five, but only two of those hits came in his last three innings. He had been 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his first two starts at home this season. Wellemeyer has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts, lifting his ERA to 4.14 after such a hot start. He continues to strike out a good number of batters, but is looking more and more like a less-than-certain bet in Fantasy. His next start is scheduled for Sunday against the Cubs. (CBS Sports)

Cardinals SP Todd Wellemeyer squandered away a 4-0 lead Wednesday against the Pirates and ended up with a no decision as Pittsburgh rallied for 7-4 win. Wellemeyer blanked the Pirates for three innings and the game was tied in the fifth after Jason Bay’s two-run homer. Wellemeyer was charged with seven hits, four runs and one walk in six innings. He struck out five. Wellemeyer has allowed four or more runs in just two of his five starts this season. He continues to be a surprise arm for the Cardinals, but could be out of a job later this season when some injured arms recover. For now, he is a decent option in larger mixed leagues. His next scheduled start is for Monday against the Reds. Wellemeyes is on track to be a two-start pitcher Fantasy Week 5 (April 28-May 4) with his second start coming against the Cubs. Wellemeyer has been solid early, but will probably struggle over the course of the season if he remains in a starting role, since he’s never pitched a lot of innings at any level. (Rotowire, CBS Sports)

Todd Wellemeyer threw over 100 pitches in a game for the first time in his career Friday night and moved to 2-0 after a seven-inning, four-hit performance. Wellemeyer allowed only one run and struck out six. His ERA sits at 3.24. Granted, he was facing the Giants, but Wellemeyer looked great. He kept the ball down and worked ahead all night. Of the 107 pitches he threw, 72 were strikes. OK, here’s the downside: Friday’s start was the first in which Wellemeyer didn’t strike out a batter per inning. Of course, he still struck out six in seven, which is awfully close. The more Wellemeyer pitches, the more he starts to look like a legitimately good hurler and not just some journeyman on a hot streak. Has pitching coach Dave Duncan produced another gem? Wellemeyer is probably worth a flier in all leagues at this point. His next start is scheduled for Wednesday at Pittsburgh — a good matchup, for sure. He has suddenly become a very nice-looking option in NL-only leagues. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

SP Todd Wellemeyer received some kudos from Marc Normandin over at Baseball Prospectus in his BP Fantasy Beat: Patching Up the Rotation:

Todd Wellemeyer has some neat stats to start the year, with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings. His ERA of 4.00 isn’t optimal if you’re picky about rate stats and are aware that he probably won’t finish even there, but the strikeout rate and his decent K/BB of 2.9 have made up for it so far. The problem is that Wellemeyer’s already given up five big flies; I don’t expect him to give up homers on 36 percent of his fly balls on the season, but even when that figure falls out of orbit, there is the more serious issue of regression from even this level of performance to wonder about.

April is wonderful for player performance in limited playing time, and Wellemeyer’s line is no different. Yes, he has an ERA of 4.00, but he has also stranded 93 percent of his baserunners. He’s allowed 14 hits and seven walks on the season, with five of those hits coming as home runs. Even when the homer rate drops, his Left on Base rate should drop around 20 percent, to a more normal figure. His QERA is an improvement on his ERA, since it’s based on K/BB/GB rates, but even that should drop as the season drags on. His current K/9 is 10.0, but in his two longest campaigns, Wellemeyer posted K/9 of 6.2 and 6.8, respectively. Dropping his strikeout rate down to 2007 levels and plugging it into the QERA formula gives you 4.80. This is probably closer to his actual value—his Equivalent ERA from his PECOTA projection is also 4.80—assuming his problems with homers stop plaguing him. Wellemeyer doesn’t have much upside, and there are too many small sample issues surrounding his work so far. Unless you’re in a very large, very deep league, you can do better.

Cardinals SP Todd Wellemeyer, who had allowed no more than two earned runs in either of his first two starts, was cruising along in his third at the Giants before the sixth inning, when he allowed five earned runs. Wellemeyer had a shutout going until Matt Cain’s solo shot in the top of the sixth. He went on to give up four more runs in the inning. They were all originally ruled unearned, but the call was changed afterwards. It just isn’t easy to get credited with an error these days. He took a no-decision, striking out seven in six innings of work while surrendering five hits and three walks. Wellemeyer continues to strike out batters at a phenomenal rate, having whiffed 20 in 18 innings. No one saw him as a strikeout-per-inning guy, but pitching coach Dave Duncan is known for working miracles. We say Wellemeyer’s upside remains limited to NL-only leagues, but you could do worse than give him a chance in his next start, which should come Friday against the Giants. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

Cardinals SP Todd Wellemeyer pitched six scoreless innings Monday against the Astros before running into trouble in the seventh. Lance Berkman and Carlos N. Lee led off with consecutive solo home runs. However, Wellemeyer remained in the game and retired the next three hitters. He was on the hook for the loss until St. Louis tied the game at three in the ninth. He finished the game allowing five hits and one walk. He struck out seven in seven.

Wellemeyer has now made it through two starts and has allowed a total of three runs in 12 innings. He also has 13 strikeouts in that span. No one saw him as a strikeout-per-inning guy, but it looks as though Dave Duncan has once again worked his magic. Wellemeyer will remain in the rotation as long as the Cardinals need him. Consider him a NL-only and larger mixed league flier. His next scheduled start is for Saturday against the Giants. He was 1-0 with five scoreless innings in his lone start against the Giants last season. (CBS Sports)

FAAB Acquisition: Todd Wellemeyer, SP, St. Louis Cardinals ($5 bid) [active]

Down: P Jason Marquis

Cut: P Rick VandenHurk