Atomic RoadRunners

This is the final installment of the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series. Protected lists are due for submission this Monday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern. Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2010:

Kyle Blanks
2 Years – $10
.250 Average, 24 Runs, 10 HR, 22 RBI, and 1 steal
Blanks was a top 1B prospect for the Padres, but was moved to the outfield due to the presence of Adrian Gonzalez. To give you a vision, Blanks is like a fatter Frank Thomas in the outfield. He can slug, but he probably should be tethered to first base. He was lost for the season in August with plantar fasciaitis, and just isn’t worth protecting for $10, as he was originally drafted by Misogynistic Padres in the third round of the minor league draft.

Kiko Calero
2 Years – $5
2 Wins, 1.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 69 K’s (in 60 innings)
Still a free agent as of this writing, Calero strung together a good season in the Marlins’ pen, but is not a player anyone should consider protecting. No save chances, just some decent WHIP if you need it.

Nick Masset
2 Years – $5
5 Wins, 2.37 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 76 innings)
Like Calero, Masset is another guy that was picked up for ERA and WHIP assistance. The problem with relievers is you can usually never bank on them repeating their performance from year-to-year. One bad outing will taint the stats for three months. Meanwhile, some other scrub is mowing them down, and thus is worth the FAAB flyer in May. Masset just signed a two-year, $2.58 million extension, and will likely be one of the top Reds set-up guys, but not for $5.

Steve Peace
2 Years – $5
.206 Average, 19 Runs, 4 HR, 16 RBI, and 1 steal
Originally picked up by The Pi Train in 2009, Pearce was a second-hand pickup in August. Pearce’s career is at a crossroads, and may already be over, though the Pirates will keep paying him for another year or two. Pearce had a tremendous season in 2007 in AAA as a 1B/OF, but he couldn’t repeat the magic. Pittsburgh got tired of waiting for him to develop, and now he’s behind Garrett Jones and possibly Jeff Clement at 1B, and also may lose out to Jones, Ryan Church, and Brandon Moss in right field (assuming Milledge and McCutchen occupy left and center, respectively). And he keeps getting worse at the plate. Pass.

Ryan Roberts
2 Years – $5
.279 Average, 41 Runs, 7 HR, 25 RBI, and 7 steals
Picked up after the Roadrunner trade of Brandon Phillips, Roberts pretty much was the starting 2B for the Diamondbacks after the deadline trade of Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and he filled in rather well. At the end of the season, it was thought that Roberts might have a shot as the starting 2B for 2010, but then the D’backs received Tony Abreu from the Dodgers to complete the Jon Garland deal, and then signed a below-market-value Kelly Johnson in January. Now either Roberts or Abreu is the primary middle-infield backup, assuming the D’backs can move Augie Ojeda. Roberts also can play 3B and OF, so he’s a handy guy to have around. Obviously, not worth protecting.

Rusty Ryal
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 11 Runs, 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 0 steals
If Ryan Roberts isn’t worth protecting, what does that mean for Roberts’ backup in Rusty Ryal? Bad news, that’s what. Ryal was called up in August to help out, and to his credit, he filled in at first and second base once it was clear the Diamondbacks were phoning it in. He did hit 17 homers and 70 RBI with a .290 average at AAA Reno, but quite obviously, there’s no protections here.

Delwyn Young
2 Years – $5
.266 Average, 40 Runs, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 2 steals
Young was given every chance to earn the 2B job after the Pirates traded Freddy Sanchez to the Giants at the deadline. The fact that Pittsburgh traded for Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura is an indication of how that experiment went. Pirates GM Neal Huntington has announced that Young will be on the squad in a utility role, as he can play OF corners, 2B, and a passable 1B (though he’d be forth or fifth on that depth chart). Not really protectable material.

Today we have the fourth installment in the my series of 2010 Protected List columns – The Fringe. These guys could go either way, with a lot of factors ultimately determining whether they make the cut. Of last year’s Fringe (Blake DeWitt, Jody Gerut, Chris Dickerson), two were protected, while hindsight said that I was 0-for-3 on that score. So, lesson learned, here goes this year’s attempt, in which I try to be more discerning:

John Baker
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 59 Runs, 9 HR, 50 RBI, and 0 steals
Baker was selected in the 2009 auction, and didn’t seem to have that great a season. In fact, it often seemed that he was slumping and losing playing time to platoon partner Ronny Paulino, but his totals actually made his $5 salary worthwhile. Due to the Roadrunner roster crunch, it’s between Baker and Buster Posey, who is cheaper and has more upside.

Verdict: Release

Matt Diaz
2 Years – $5
.313 Average, 56 Runs, 13 HR, 58 RBI, and 12 steals
Seemingly as usual, Diaz was an early-season pickup and produced some decent numbers in a platoon in the Braves outfield, shared with Garrett Anderson. Normally a .280 hitter, the 2009 average was a surprise, as were the 12 steals. Most projection systems have him earning between $9-14 for 2010, so likely to be protected this year, unless the Braves sign Johnny Damon or Jermaine Dye in the next few days before the deadline.

Verdict: Probable Protection – Game Day Decision

[Update: Protected]

Mat Gamel
2 Years – $5
.242 Average, 11 Runs, 5 HR, 20 RBI, and 1 steal
Gamel was protected as a minor leaguer and was one of Milwaukee’s top prospects coming into 2010. He was called up in May, but languished on the bench, as the hot hand of Casey McGehee manned third base. A defensive liability, he has lost most of his luster as a hitter, his strong 2008 may now be an outlier.

Verdict: Release

Ryan Hanigan
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 22 Runs, 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 0 steals
Hanigan took over from Ramon Hernandez in July, and at a glance, seemed to do a good job, especially when it came to batting average. However, reviewing his stats, there’s just nothing there. The re-signing of Hernandez by the Reds relegated Hanigan to backup duty again, and most agree that will be his role for the next decade.

Verdict: Release

Chase Headley
1 Year – $5
.262 Average, 62 Runs, 12 HR, 64 RBI, and 10 steals
Headley has been on the RoadRunners since midway through the 2007 season, when he was gunning for the Texas League MVP. Stuck in left field due to the arrival of Kevin Kouzmanoff the past two seasons, Headley should be the starter at the hot corner in 2010 with the Crushin’ Russian’s departure to Oakland. Headley’s numbers should look better at 3B, and those steals are a bit of a surprise.

Verdict: Protect

Angel Pagan
2 Years – $5
.306 Average, 54 Runs, 6 HR, 32 RBI, and 14 steals
Pagan was a great pickup mid-season, as he became a starter due to the injuries to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church, who was later traded to Atlanta. .300 average and 14 steals should play everyday, but this is the Mets, who brought in Jason Bay this offseason. But then Carlos Beltran underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, and may miss the first month or two of the season. To counter, the Mets took Lil’ Sarge, Gary Mathews, Jr. off the Angels’ hands, so now Pagan has to compete for the CF job, and eventual 4th OF slot. Too much risk for what would be my 4th OF slot. No thanks.

Verdict: Release

Brendan Ryan
2 Years – $5
.292 Average, 55 Runs, 3 HR, 37 RBI, and 14 steals
Another sneaky fast performer that was picked up mid-season, this time to replace the injured Jose Reyes on the roster. As a starting shortstop, Ryan will have to fend off prospect Travis Greene, as well as middle infield re-tread Julio Lugo, and may find himself batting ninth behind the pitcher due to manager Tony LaRussa’s whims. That said, you pretty much know what you get with him, though the average and steals are probably high-water marks. We’ll look for him as a pick-up or even minor league pick, but the roster spot is too valuable.

Verdict: Release

Edinson Volquez
1 Year – $2
4 Wins, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 47 K’s (in 49 innings)
Volquez was the injury-challenge player acquired from Get Off Kong! in June (Jose Reyes went the other way, neither played again in 2009 – a wash). After several false-starts in rehab, Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery in August, and will likely miss most of the 2010 season, though he is targeting a mid-season return. The protected list isn’t a good place for rehab.

Verdict: Release

Sean West
2 Years – $5
8 Wins, 4.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 103 MLB innings)
West was called up from AA to fill in for the injured Andrew Miller in May, and he did alright the first time through the league. He had some great outings, and some rather pedestrian ones as well. He could likely use more seasoning, but would be a decent 5th starter type. But not worth a protected slot.

Verdict: Release

Today is the third installment in the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner protected list preview. We’ve already identified six players that are keepers, now we’re moving on to “The Probables” – guys that it makes sense to protect, are generally a good value, but wouldn’t be shielded from expansion, if you know what I mean. The problem is that we need three more guys in that scenario – yikes. Here’s the breakdown:

Casey Blake
2 Years – $5
.280 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 79 RBI, and 3 steals
Blake was acquired from The Pi Train in August specifically for his protectability. Typically a model of consistency, Blake has put up roughly a 80/18/80/.275 season each of the past seven seasons. There are no prospects pushing him, and he just finished the first year of a three-year contract. With the ownership and money issues in the Dodgers’ front office, everyone needs a little stability, even if he is 36 yars old. He will run streaky, however.

Madison Bumgarner
2 Years – $2
0 Wins, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10 K’s (in 10 MLB innings)
12 Wins, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 92 K’s (in 131 High-A and AA innings)
The Giants’ No. 2 prospect behind Posey (below), Bumgarner plowed through Hi-A and AA before getting the call in September. Seeing occasional outings, including one start, Bumgarner impressed, though the loss of velocity as the season progressed was a concern. Still, the 20-year old (yes, 20) is penciled in as the Giants’ No. 5 starter to start 2010.

Mat Latos
2 Years – $5
4 Wins, 4.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 39 K’s (in 50.2 MLB innings)
8 Wins, 1.37 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 73 K’s (in 72.1 Low-A and AA innings)
Latos was picked-up mid-season as a great minor league protection candidate, but the Padres inexplicably allowed him to pitch a meaningless game on September 1st, passing the 50-inning rookie threshold, and then promptly shut him down for the season. Often cited as having an attitude problem, Latos reeled off great minor league innings, and having Petco Park as a home can’t hurt either. Decent flyer for $5 – went for $7 in the November experts draft.

Buster Posey
2 Years – $1
.325 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, and 6 steals (combined Hi-A and AAA numbers – only 17 MLB at-bats)
Posey is the heir apparent behind the plate in San Francisco. However, his value and protectability took a hit when the Giants re-signed Bengie Molina to a one-year contract, almost guaranteeing that Posey starts the season in AAA. Still it’s only $1, but it’s also my second catcher position. There’s no doubt Posey will be a star, but he’d be a much better investment if his contract clock hadn’t started last season.

Drew Stubbs
2 Years – $5
.267 Average, 27 Runs, 8 HR, 17 RBI, and 10 steals
Stubbs was a mid-season pickup, and I was planning on possibly protecting him as a minor leaguer. Lo and behold, the former No. 6 overall pick replaced Willy Taveras in centerfield, and amassed 180 at-bats. The good news is that he made enough of an impression that most are projecting him as the starting CF. While there is debate about his power numbers, everyone is in agreement that he’s worth more than $5.

Yesterday we started off our upcoming protected list preview with the 2010 No Doubters. There were only three, as for the first time since 2006 it didn’t include “Lincecum – $7″. Along with a new rule change that reduces the minimum amount of protectables from 9 to 5, the 2010 Roadrunners may be off to a shaky start. Here’s a look at the next group – the “Almost Automatics”. These guys would be No Doubters except for one or two chinks in the armor. Here’s the breakdown:

Johnny Cueto
1 Year – $5
11 Wins, 4.41 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 132 K’s
Cueto was acquired mid-year from Cover Zero, and shortly after that, the 23-year-old starter had a run-in with Dusty Baker’s School of Young Pitcher Fatigue. It was apparent to the entire world that he was either gassed, hurt, or both, but a 15-day DL stint for a sore hip seemed to cure all. According to most sources, his ERA and WHIP won’t be this bad, as he was lit up a bit in some of those aforementioned starts. Still plenty of potential here, for $5

Chris Iannetta
1 Year – $1
.228 Average, 41 Runs, 16 HR, 52 RBI, and 0 steals
Long-time Roadrunner Iannetta finally was given the starting gig for 2009, but his paltry average allowed Yorvit Torrealba to steal at-bats. Always a power threat, Iannetta suffered a May hamstring injury, and he just wasn’t the same after that. Last season he was a no-doubter, but this season, with the lousy average, and the signing of former Royals starter Miguel Olivo a threat to take more at-bats, Iannetta has some issues to be concerned about. He did sign a three-year, $8.35 million contract extension in early January, so at least he’ll be on the squad. Almost too much drama for $1.

Randy Wells
2 Years – $7
12 Wins, 3.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 104 K’s
Wells was picked up in May, and proceeded to surprise all, earning a sixth-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting (with one 2nd place vote). A converted catcher, Wells survived well in his second and third times through the league. While his ERA can’t possibly be as good, he should be a solid starter for 2010.

With protected rosters due in seven days, it’s time to review the options for the 2010 Roadrunners. As I did the past two seasons, I’ve broken the list into five groups:

• The No Doubters
• The Almost Automatics
• The Probables
• The Fringe
• Not So Much

These should be self-explanatory. First up, the No Doubters:

Prince Fielder
2 Years – $29
.299 Average, 103 Runs, 46 HR, 141 RBI, and 2 steals
Fielder was acquired mid-season in a trade with Get Off Kong!, and thus re-joined the Atomic Roadrunners for his sixth overall season, which is impressive, since he’s only 25 years old. After a power dip in 2008 due (possibly) to a vegetarian diet, the homers (and everything else) returned. Signed to a relatively modest $29 contract, he should again earn his keep in 2010.

Josh Johnson
1 Year – $5
15 Wins, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 191 K’s
Johnson, who just signed a four-year, $39 million contract extension, was touted early on as a Cy Young dark horse, though that would be tough in Florida. He had a lot of innings (209) coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008, but was pretty solid, though he did have a few clunkers that damaged his ERA a bit down the stretch. A potential ace worthy of protection for $5.

Clayton Kershaw
1 Year – $9
8 Wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 185 K’s
Picked up mid-season in a trade with Misogynistic Padres, the 21-year old Kershaw found himself as de-facto staff ace for the Dodgers entering the post-season. He did relatively well, without major flame-outs, but he was gassed after a long season. The toll manager Joe Torre placed on his young arm is worrysome, but Kershaw should definitely deliver $9 worth of value, especially since all reports indicate he’s still improving.

Protected lists have been submitted, and we’re locked in for the 2009 WBRL Draft.  Here’s who we’re bringing:

• C – Chris Iannetta  (2 / $1)
• 2B – Brandon Phillips  (1 / $16)
• SS – Ryan Theriot  (1 /$1)
• 3B – Chipper Jones  (1 / $23)
• MI – Blake DeWitt  (2 / $5)
• OF – Chase Headley  (2 / $5)
• OF – Jody Gerut  (2 / $5)
• P – Tim Lincecum (1 / $7)
• P – Josh Johnson (2 / $5)
• P – Todd Wellemeyer (2 / $5)
• P – Matt Lindstrom (2 / $10)
• P – Brian Wilson (1 / $10)
• P – Mike Gonzalez (2 / $5)
• 3B – Mat Gamel (3 /$5) (Minors)

Here are the figures:

• Players Protected: 14
• Payroll: $98
• Players Needed: 11
• Available: $162
• Available per Player: $14.73

Also note that the Atomic Roadrunners will have the final selection in the 2nd Round of the Minor League Draft (the 11th pick overall)

This is the final installment of the 2009 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series.  Protected lists are due for submission this Sunday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern.  Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2009:

Chris Coste
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 28 Runs, 0 Steals
Coste was a great pickup with incumbent Carlos Ruiz struggling. Although a heavier workload brought down the average later in the season (when he had been replaced by Pablo Sandoval on the AaRr squad), he did an admirable job. The Phillies also brought in Ronny Paulino from the Pirates, so Coste’s security might be in jeopardy.

Gregor Blanco
2 Years – $5
.251 Average, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 52 Runs, 13 Steals
Blanco was a 7th-round minor league pick, though he really wasn’t much of a prospect. He did pretty well in spring training, and won at-bats from Matt Diaz (injured), Josh Anderson (sent to AAA) and the oft-injured (and then traded) Mark Kotsay. However, other than average (which fell his second time through the NL) and the occasional steal, he didn’t seem to do much, though his totals in the counting stats look decent. With some high-profile OF prospects coming up soon, there isn’t much certainty in Blanco’s world right now.

Brett Myers
2 Years – $31
10-13, 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 163 K’s
Myers was supposed to be my top-tier pitching acquisition, but he had a horrible first half, was sent down to AAA for three weeks, and then came back and pitched like a decent No. 2 starter. He kept up the strikeouts, but also walked more than expected. Apparently he needed a full year to get used to the move back from the bullpen, where the Phillies had him closing for 2007 before the Brad Lidge acquisition. He’ll be a decent starter in 2009, but not for $31 – that’s bollocks.

Jason Marquis
2 Years – $10
11-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 91 K’s
Marquis was a minor league selection as a fill-in starter. He wasn’t very good, and I didn’t activate him very often, but he lasted the year, which is more than many other pitchers can say. He had a bit of a hot streak in July and August, and we rode him for that. He was traded to Colorado, so that can’t possibly be good for his numbers.

Tony Pena
2 Years – $3
3-2, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 52 K’s and 3 saves
Pena was won at auction as a “handcuff” for the then-protected Brandon Lyon. This was after it was announced that Chad Qualls would handle the 7th inning, Pena the eighth, and Lyon the ninth. Pena didn’t do as well as his 2007 numbers, and he never had the chance to close, especially after the Diamondbacks acquired Jon Rauch. While Pena will be a decent set-up man, Qualls is the closer going into 2009.

Noah Lowry
2 Years – $1
– did not pitch –
Lowry was a transaction deadline pickup viewed exclusively for 2009. Injured in spring training, he had two surgeries on his throwing arm, and further complications in October pretty much killed any enthusiasm for protecting him. Plus, I think we’ve seen his peak three years ago, and he never had good stuff, for that matter.

Today we have the fourth installment in the my series of Protected List columns – The Fringe. These guys could go either way, with a lot of factors ultimately determining whether they make the cut. Here goes:

Blake DeWitt
2 Years – $5
.264 Average, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 45 Runs, 3 Steals
Nice pickup in week one. DeWitt was the fourth 3B on the Dodgers’ depth chart to start the season, behind Nomar Garciaparra, Andy LaRoche, and Tony Abreu. However injuries to the other three kept DeWitt starting, save for a few days in May. The deadline acquisition of Casey Blake ended the party only for a week, as DeWitt was then moved across the diamond to fill in for Jeff Kent. All indications have DeWitt as the starting 2B for 2009 for the Dodgers, with the Mark Loretta signing only providing a platoon partner against tough lefties. If he was still a 3B, then he wouldn’t be protected, but he’s adequate at 2B, and should earn his $5 keep. Should.

Verdict: Protect

Jody Gerut
2 Years – $5
.296 Average, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 46 Runs, 6 Steals
I had tracked Gerut through spring training, and picked him up once he was called up in May, after Jim Edmonds was dismissed from the Padres. He did really well, including a hot 7-homer August, but then missed most of September with a strained ligament in his finger on a stolen base attempt – leaving him unable to swing a bat. Padres manager Bud Black has already indicated that Gerut would be the starting center fielder. With more playing time, those counting numbers should increase. Worth $5.

Verdict: Protect

Chris Dickerson
2 Years – $5
.304 Average, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 20 Runs, 5 Steals
Dickerson was a flier pickup at the deadline, originally for a few extra steals. He was activated when Gerut went down with an injury for the Roadrunners. Dickerson exceeded all expectations, contributing the above stats in only 102 at-bats. This was the toughest decision for the final spot on the 2009 Roadrunners. Here are some additional projections and comments:

SOURCE        AVG    R     HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
BP Pecota    .247    63    15   50    17
Shandler     .243    53    12   42    19
Lindy's      .275    81    10   60    14
Fanball      .253    41    8    25    12
Marcel       .282    36    9    31    6
CBS Sports   .278    65    7    41    14
------------------------------------------

Average:     .263    56    10   41    14

Those are some very Mike Cameron-lite projections. The speed and athleticism doesn’t bother me, but boy, does that projected average, especially for someone that is “old” for a rookie and never really broke out in the minors.

Here’s a quote from Chris Bracke, associate editor of Fanball Magazine:

I admit I bought into him last year mostly in an attempt to pick up a couple extra steals, but I believe his inability to make consistent contact will make him too much of a liability in the batting average department. The comp I believe people should keep in mind when considering the potential for Dickerson this season is Michael Bourn. And if that didn’t make you just throw up in your mouth, I don’t know what will.

Exactly.

Plus, the Reds then signed Willy Taveras to play CF, pushing Dickerson (who held his own in CF) over to left field, potentially in a platoon with Norris Hopper.  Okay, fine.  Then then Reds signed BOTH Jacques Jones and Johnny Gomes to minor-league deals with spring training NRI’s, which further informs me that Dickerson is now one of four competing for the LF spot.  So now he’s a talented 4th outfielder (don’t ask me who the #3 is), and that’s not worth $5, not with that kind of uncertainty.  We’ll see how spring training goes, and may bid accordingly.

Verdict: Release

Today is the third installment in the 2009 Atomic Roadrunner protected list preview. We’ve already identified nine players that are keepers, now we’re moving on to “The Probables” – guys that it makes sense to protect, are generally a good value, but wouldn’t be shielded from expansion, if you know what I mean. Here’s the breakdown:

Todd Wellemeyer
2 Years – $5
13-9, 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 134 K’s
Nice pickup in week two. Wellemeyer received the benefit of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, who was able to stretch out the career reliever. He had some rough spots in June and July as he fought through some elbow soreness, but he is a serviceable #3/#4 starter. Good for $5, obviously.

Mat Gamel
3 Years – $5 (Minors)
.329 Average, 19 HR, 96 RBI, 96 Runs (Double-A Stats)
Gamel is one of the top Brewers prospects, and he had a tremendous season at Double-A, even though he slumped in August and September as he was moved up to AAA and a September call-up to Milwaukee. It was later revealed that he had some elbow soreness that was affecting his swing. His defense is a question mark, but he may be called up in May a-la Ryan Braun two seasons ago. Right now the Brewers are creating a Bill Hall / Mike Lamb platoon at 3B.

Chase Headley
2 Years – $5
.269 Average, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 34 Runs, and 4 steals
Last year, Headley was essentially where Mat Gamel was last season. The Double-A MVP in 2007, he was picked up, did well in spring training, was sent down, and was called up in early June. Headley, however, is a solid defender at the hot corner, but was moved to OF due to the presence of Kevin Kouzmanoff, who can’t play anywhere else. With more AB’s and confidence, Headley should improve his average and his counting stats.

Yesterday we started off our upcoming protected list preview with the No Doubters. The good news is that there were five, so the 2009 Roadrunners look to be off to a good start. Here’s a look at the next group – the “Almost Automatics”. These guys would be No Doubters except for one or two chinks in the armor. Here’s the breakdown:

Chipper Jones
1 Year – $23
.364 Average, 82 Runs, 22 HR, 75 RBI, and 4 steals
Chipper enjoyed a very strong first half, batting over .400 into late May, and ended up winning the NL batting title. Injuries took effect in the second half, and he missed the majority of September, save for pinch hitting duties. He was an All-Star, and led the NL in batting, On-Base percentage, and was 12th in the MVP voting, which was partially due to the Braves’ fade in the standings. The dings against him are his age coming into 2009 (37) and that he’ll likely have a few DL stints. He’s actually moved up in the NL 3B rankings, as Garrett Atkins and Aramis Ramirez disappointed in 2008.

Brian Wilson
1 Years – $10
3-2, 41 Saves, 67 K’s, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
All-Star selection and finished 2nd in the NL in saves behind Jose Valverde. Not that great a pitcher, statistically speaking, but was the go-to guy. No other options were around, but now there’s an improved bullpen backing him up.

Mike Gonzalez
2 Years – $5
0-3, 14 Saves, 44 K’s, 4.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Picked up in April, he ascended to the closers role mid-season, but unfortunately the Braves lacked save opportunites down the stretch. Good bet for $5.

Matt Lindstrom
2 Years – $10
3-3, 5 Saves, 43 K’s, 3.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Was given the closing opportunity late in the year due to Kevin Gregg’s injury, and did quite well – well enough to have the Marlins trade Greeg to the Cubs.

With protected rosters due in six days, it’s time to review the options for the 2009 Roadrunners. As I did last season, I’ve broken the list into five groups:

• The No Doubters
• The Almost Automatics
• The Probables
• The Fringe
• Not So Much

These should be self-explanatory. First up, the No Doubters:

Tim Lincecum
1 Year – $7
18 Wins, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 265 K’s
Seabiscuit was ridden hard by Manager Bruce Bochy, wrapping up a Cy Young award and an All-Star appearance. He was first in strikeouts, K/9, hits/9, shutouts, and wild pitches. He was 2nd in ERA, Wins, and won-loss percentage. For $7.

Ryan Theriot
1 Year – $1
.307 Average, 85 Runs, 1 HR, 38 RBI, and 22 steals
Theriot again earned his salary with the high average and runs, and 22 steals were nice as well, though he was caught 13 times. Gained 50 points of average to offset 6 fewer steals and 2 fewer homers.

Brandon Phillips
1 Year – $16
.261 Average, 80 Runs, 21 HR, 78 RBI and 23 steals
Considered a “down” year for Phillips, he didn’t match his 2007 30/30 totals, but still was possibly the second-best 2B after Chase Utley. 20/20 is still very nice, but the drop in AVG and batting cleanup are both concerns.

Chris Iannetta
2 Years – $1
.264 Average, 50 Runs, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 0 Steals
Iannetta finally broke-out in his second season, stealing playing time away from the presumptive starter Yorvit Torrealba to start in 104 games. With additional playing time, counting stats should improve, but the average is a problem. Still, for $1, he’s the 4th or 5th-best catcher in the NL.

Josh Johnson
2 Years – $5
7 Wins, 3.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 77 K’s
Picked up mid-season as he came back from Tommy John surgery, Johnson went 7-1 in 14 starts, with 77K’s in 87 innings. Better yet, reports indicate that he gained 2-3 mph on his fastball. Very good for $5.

Protected list has been submitted.  Here’s the squad:

• C – Carlos Ruiz $2
• 1B – Prince Fielder $10
• 2B – Brandon Phillips $16
• SS – Jose Reyes $38
• 3B – Chipper Jones $23
• MI – Ryan Theriot $1
• OF – Corey Hart $7
• OF – Shane Victorino $1
• P – Brandon Webb $25
• P – Tim Lincecum $7
• P – John Maine $5
• P – Chuck James $5
• P – Brandon Lyon $5
• P – Brian Wilson $10
• 3B – Chase Headley $5 – Minors

Final additions were Brandon Lyon, more than 50% odds to be the closer, and Chuck James, as Jurrgens will likely start in the minors, and Mike Hampton is hurt yet again (after one pitch in the Venezuelan League).

Players Needed: 10

Available $: $105

In the final installment of our tour through the 2007 Atomic Roadrunners roster on the lookout for protectables, we encounter the fifth group of player – “The Not-so-Much’s”.  Self-explanatory:

The Not-So-Much’s

• Chris Iannetta – Destined to be next in the line of Ben Petrick, J.D. Closser, of hyped Rockies rookie catchers?
• Mike Fontenot -Can’t believe he’d cost $11 to protect.
• Ruben Gotay – Once Luis Castillo was signed, he was doomed
• Brendan Ryan – May be a good reserve pick for 2008, given the crap St. Louis will roll out at the keystone.
• Alfredo Amezaga – Good player to have on a real baseball team – very versatile, but doesn’t run anymore.
• Morgan Ensberg – 2007 wasn’t the bounceback I had hoped for.  Currently a free agent.
• Ryan Ludwick – Decent mashing OF for St. Louis, may be worth a minor league pick
• Ryan Spilborghs – Very good #4 OF that has some power and a .300 avg.  Will re-visit, and might go in the auction
• Chris Sampson – Wasn’t that much stuff there to begin with, maybe better than Woody Williams – not a compliment
• Saul Rivera – Seemed decent in stretches, led the league in appearances, may have been used up

Part IV of my tour through the Roadrunner roster in search of protectables for 2008 leads us to the fourth group – “The Fringe.”  This group includes players that require a certain leap of faith to include on a protected list.  When faced with the choice of questionable unknowns or questionable knowns, you opt for familiarity.  If the Maximum Number of Protections was set lower, there is no way these players would make the cut.  You’re not sure if you could get them again for the same price, but you wouldn’t be heart-broken if your rival secured the player (and the ulcer that goes with it).  These are the guys you expose for expansion draft purposes.  Their inclusion haunts your offseason, as your auction strategy is dependent on something resembling production from these guys.  Here they are, in their glory, The Fringe.

The Fringe (This could go either way)

• Brandon Lyon
  • 2 Years – $5
  • 6 Wins, 2 Saves, 40 K’s, 2.68 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP
  • Why: With the uncertainty of the Diamondbacks’ closer role, Lyon could be in line for saves in 2008
  • Why Not: Not exactly durable, not exactly good, stuff isn’t exactly great
• Chuck James
  • 1 Year – $5
  • 11 Wins, 116K’s, 4.24 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP
  • Why: #4 starter on a good team, probable run support, doesn’t really kill you
  • Why Not: Doesn’t really help you, soft-tosser, injury risk/dead-arm late in season
• John Lannan
  • 2 Years – $5
  • 2 Wins, 10 K’s, 4.21 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP
  • Why: Well, he certainly seemed to be better than his numbers late in the season, mild prospect sheen
  • Why Not: Nationals, bad numbers, did you see the bad numbers above? And he could start in Single-A again
• Sean Marshall
  • 2 Years – $6
  • 7 Wins, 67 K’s, 3.93 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP
  • Why: Decent numbers, a chance to be #5 starter on a playoff team
  • Why Not: Signing of Jon Lieber, Moving Ryan Dempster to rotation, Jason Marquis’ contract
• Moises Alou
  • 2 Years – $12
  • .341, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 51 Runs and 3 Steals – in only 320 AB’s
  • Why: Obviously he can hit, imagine the numbers over the course of a season, great lineup
  • Why Not: He’s 42, he’ll never NOT be injured, a little pricey
• Ronny Paulino
  • 1 Year – $5
  • .263, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 56 Runs and 2 steals
  • Why:  Good numbers for catcher, seemingly guaranteed starter
  • Why Not: While HR went up, average dropped 50 points from 2006, questions about attitude, $5 may be pricey

Here’s Part III of my 2008 Protect List rundown, looking at the third likely group of protections – “The Probables”. This group consists of players that are probably going to be protected, having a decent value, but they’re not star caliber, and casual fans might not be sure of who they are, exactly, but Rotisserie players will nod in appreciation. Still, each requires a justification.

The Probables:

• Carlos Ruiz
  • 2 Years – $2
  • .260, 6HR, 54 RBI, 42 Runs, 6 Steals (for a catcher!)
  • Justification: Starting C Rod Barajas hasn’t been retained, so Ruiz will be Opening Day catcher
• Ryan Theriot
  • 2 Years – $1
  • .266, 3 HR, 45 RBI, 80 Runs, and 28 steals.
  • Justification: Theriot became the starting SS, so should benefit, but faded down the stretch.
• Brian Wilson
  • 2 Years – $10
  • 1 Win, 6 Saves, 18K, 2.28 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP
  • Justification: Named Giants closer for 2008 after September call-up. No other options for Giants, really.
• Chase Headley
  • 3 Years – $5 (protectable as Minor Leaguer)
  • .330, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 82 Runs and 1 steal (AA stats)
  • Justification: AA MVP, and has a good shot to start the season in San Diego at 3B or LF.