Recently, a reader asked me my opinion of Prince Fielder and to look deeper into his numbers to see when he turned things around. Could the signing of Ryan Braun or the trade of CC Sabathia have motivated him to pick things up?
The Braun signing came first, and we’ll start there. His signing came right around May 15, so that’s the date that I am going to use for this comparison. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
- Through May 15: .255 (36-141), 5 HR, 23 RBI, 18 R, .362 OBP, .411 SLG
- From May 17 on: .282 (126-440), 29 HR, 79 RBI, 68 R, .375 OBP, .537 SLG
Obviously, it is clear to see that the numbers were significantly better after the Braun signing, but was that the reason why? In the first 13 games after the signing, Fielder did hit .321 (17-53), but with just 1 HR, 2 RBI and 5 R. Yes, the average was there, but the power did not really come around until May 30.
From May 30-June 22, Fielder hit 10 HR in just 77 AB. Was there any rhyme or reason to that hot stretch? Maybe, maybe not. It’s easy to say that his struggles early on this season was due to his lack of a contract. It’s easy to say that once he saw Ryan Braun get a major deal from the Brewers he felt that he needed to turn things up in order to get the Brewers to sign him to a similar deal.
We really will never know, but what we did know was that Fielder had a terrible stretch to start the season, but he did turn things around. That turn around just came well after the ink dried on Braun’s contract.
The Sabathia acquisition was another milestone in the Brewers season. The numbers are a little bit closer, but he was still obviously better after the trade then before it. I used the cut-off date of July 8 for this comparison. Let’s look at the lines:
- Prior to the trade: .269 (88-327), 17 HR, 48 RBI, 51 R, .354 OBP, .483 SLG
- After the trade: .284 (74-261), 17 HR, 54 RBI, 35 R, .393 OBP, .536 SLG
To me, this split is a lot more telling. In 56 less AB, he was a significantly more productive player, basically up in every category across the board. Again, am I willing to say it was Sabathia who pushed Fielder to better himself?
Not by looking at his August numbers, when he hit .228 with 6 HR and 20 RBI with a .436 SLG over 101 AB. That was his lowest Average and Slugging Percentage in any month this season, even with his horrendous start to the season. If it were Sabathia who motivated him to produce, why would his worst month of the season come just weeks after his acquisition?
Basically, what it comes down for me is that Fielder’s season was not motivated by contract signings or trades. Simply put, he was not the same player that he was in 2007, when he hit .288 with 50 HR and 119 RBI. The speculation as to the reasons are endless really. He became a vegetarian. He didn’t get a long-term contract. He simply isn’t that good.
Whatever reason you want to believe, and we will probably never know the truth, all you can do is knock him down a few notches on your 2009 draft board. A player who was viewed as a potential first round pick a year ago, should now be seen as a late second round, early third round pick.
Last season he entered the season as a possible Top 3 first baseman now he is behind guys like Pujols and Berkman, Howard and Teixeira, for sure. Some may see him as a lesser choice then Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez. The comparison between he and Kevin Youkilis is an intriguing one as well. Basically, Fielder can be ranked almost anywhere in the Top 5-8 1B, and someone would be able to justify it.
It’s too early for me to say exactly where I’m going to rank him heading into 2009, but I will say that I am not going to ignore his 2007 season when evaluating him. Still, his FB% was down, similar to his number from 2006, when he hit 28 HR in his first full major league season.
Maybe he is just a .280ish hitter that’s going to launch 30-35 HR every season. Maybe the 50 HR season was the aberration, not the rule. Still, unlike some of the other 1B around, he’s proven he has the potential to bust out and carry your team in HR. That’s something worth considering. That’s something worth gambling on.