Posted on June 1, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Meet the New Guy: John Axford
Brewers RP John Axford pitched a perfect ninth inning on Saturday night, striking out one and recording his second save of the year in an 8-6 win over the Mets. The right-hander only needed 14 pitches to retire the side and is now 2 for 2 in save chances this year. Axford looks to be the front runner to get the majority of the save opportunities in Milwaukee, with Trevor Hoffman struggling, and has only allowed two runs in eight innings pitched since being called up. “It’s a tough situation to be in,” Axford said. “I don’t hold a flame to Trevor Hoffman. I’m not thinking about that, really. I’m just trying to get my job done.” He has been a career minor-leaguer, but has gotten the job done so far. Fantasy owners in NL-only formats might want to scoop the 27-year-old up just in case he gets double-digit saves. (CBS Sports)
Update: Baseball Prospectus Fantasy Beat just added Axford to their Hot Spot list:
Milwaukee keeps trying to give Trevor Hoffman chances to get his job back, and he keeps making a bad situation even worse when he does things like allow three runs in an inning to the Marlins, costing the Brewers the game. His advanced state of “being toast” brings us to the first teammate swap on the Value Picks board, as we say goodbye to Carlos Villanueva and say hello to John Axford. Villanueva didn’t actually pitch that poorly while he was on the board, picking up a save the day he was added and two holds since while maintaining a high K rate, but Ken Macha clearly prefers to keep him in his set-up role and has started to give the opportunities to Axford. If you haven’t jumped on him yet, now is the time, since he’s picked up three saves and a win in his last four outings and is starting to gain attention in the fantasy world.
Axford’s story is an interesting one, especially considering the pedigree of the man he’s (currently) replacing. The 27-year-old mustachioed Canadian rookie was drafted in the 42nd round by the Reds in 2005, but didn’t sign and played independent ball north of the border. He was then picked up as an amateur free agent by the Yankees for 2007, where he was so impressive that he was… released right after the season. The Brewers picked him up for 2008, and while a 4.55 ERA, 1.674 WHIP, and 6.9 BB/9 (!!) rate in High-A ball that year isn’t much to speak of on its own, it’s even less so when you realize he was 25, quite old for that level. Still, the Brewers must have seen something they liked, because they brought him back for 2009 and something clicked right away. A return engagement in Broward County was complete domination, striking out 14 per 9, and good work at both AA and AAA as the year progressed got him an MLB cup of coffee late in the year, where he captured his first save – a stunning rise considering where he’d been in 2008.
Back in AAA to start this season, Axford struck out nearly 13 per 9 before being recalled in mid-May, working in middle relief until his recent promotion to the closer’s role, where he’s maintained that K rate in the short time he’s been up. Unlike the changeup artistry of Hoffman and Villanueva, Axford deals in pure heat, averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. That said, the Brewers seem to want Hoffman to work his way back into the role so badly that there’s always the danger the future Hall of Famer could steal some opportunities if he puts some clean outings together, but with the Brewers featuring the second-worst bullpen in baseball, they’d do well to go with the hot hand, and right now that’s John Axford. Whether or not he sticks long-term, he’s almost certainly going to get the save opportunities right now.
The Padres called up Luis Durango from the minor leagues. He joins the team Tuesday for the start of a series against the Cardinals. The Padres are playing National League opponents this week and were short a position player. Durango is considered one of the fastest players in the Padres organization. He is batting .305 for the Beavers with 17 stolen bases, although he has been caught 10 times. With two outfielders on the DL (Kyle Blanks and Scott Hairston), Durango will provide depth and someone to pinch run. Consider him merely a deeper NL-only Rotisserie flier at this point. Durango’s big season at Paortland has not gone unnoticed. The 24-year old is hitting .305 with 17 stolen bases and adds a different dimension than the guy he’s replaced, Kyle Blanks, who is on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Durango provides significant keeper value, but needs to produce to stay up once Blanks returns. 
The National’s right field situation has been in shambles since the team released Elijah Dukes in the spring. The Roadrunners have already had two of the fill-ins, first OF Willy Taveras, released by both parties recently, as well as experimentation with SS Cristian Guzman. Roger Bernadina was called up from AAA Syracuse, and has done decently in limited action thus far. Bernadina has started four of the last five games and has seven hits, two homers and five RBI over that period. He has been on fire lately, but will probably return to the bench once he cools off. He is only viable in the deepest of NL-only formats at this point. (CBS Sports)
With two other Phillies relievers on the shelf, both Ryan Madson (broken toe) and Brad Lidge (ineffective, elbow), the simmering Jose Contreras was tabbed to be the standby closer. Perhaps he’s not worth the $42 FAAB bid (the only other bid was for $13), but hey, we have zero saves. Contreras did well in the Rockies’ pen last season, but was put in competition for a starting job in Spring Training and didn’t fare well. Looks like he can extend his career quite a bit if he stays successful in the pen. 
Dodgers starter John Ely has been a surprise success this season, getting the call to spell Vicente Padilla from AAA. Dodgers SP John Ely had his most impressive start yet in a victory against the Astros on Monday, allowing two runs on eight hits with no walks and eight strikeouts in seven innings. He threw first-pitch strikes to 20 of his 25 hitters and went to a three-ball count just five times. The rookie right-hander, who turned 24 last Thursday, has faced 84 consecutive batters without allowing a base on balls — the longest current streak in the majors. “I try not to think about that at all. I’m just going out there with the same game plan — trying to throw strikes and keep the ball down,” Ely said. “I’m a competitor and I hate giving in to guys, so I’m going to go at them. If they beat me, that’s fine. But at least I know I went at them with my best stuff. I’m getting a little more confidence each time out and learning how to face different kinds of hitters.” Ely wasn’t known for having exceptional control in the minors, so you have to think he’ll start walking batters eventually. Still, he has been quite a find out of the Dodgers minor-league system and quite an addition of the waiver wire in NL-only leagues. Another start or two like this one, and he’ll deserve a look even in mixed leagues. His next start and second of Fantasy Week 7 (May 17-23) is scheduled for Saturday against the Tigers. (CBS Sports)
Jody Gerut was originally selected by Stanimals in the 10th round of the 2010 minor league draft, but was subsequently released on April 13th. Gerut has received attention of late due to the banged-up status of Brewers OF’s Carlos Gomez (now on the 15-Day DL) and Jim Edmonds, especially after powering a game-winning grand slam in a six-RBI effort Saturday night. Gerut re-joins the squad that picked him up as a 2008 FAAB, protected him for 2009, and then released him following his trade from San Diego to Milwaukee, where he was allowed to rot on the bench.
Pirates C Jason Jaramillo was selected to fill the shoes of the recently demoted Chris Iannetta. Jaramillo may have his uses later this season as well, as it is rumored that starter Ryan Doumit may be traded by the deadline, and he also has a penchant for injuries. Jaramillo hit his first homer of the season Saturday, a solo shot in a 5-2 loss to the Astros. Jaramillo has just 14 at-bats this season as he continues to back up Ryan Doumit. He remains barely worth worrying about in the deepest of NL-only formats. (CBS Sports)
Pirates AAA OF Jose Tabata rejoins the Roadrunner squad, after spending a month on the 2009 edition. Tabata had four hits and three steals for Triple-A Indianapolis on Sunday. Tabata was 11-for-19 stealing bases in 93 games last year, but he’s already 12-for-13 in 22 games this season. He’s also batting .330/.391/.450 in his 100 at-bats. More power would be nice, but he’s still primarily a contact guy, something that will limit his upside in the majors. (Rotoworld)
One of the losers of the Padres’ 5th-starter battle, LeBlanc did well, but couldn’t supplant Mat Latos for the 5th spot. However, due to an injury to starter Chris Young, LeBlanc was called up from AAA Portland and has pitched well. LeBlanc pitched three-hit ball over six innings in Saturday’s win in Cincinnati. LeBlanc (1-0), making his second start since being recalled from Triple-A Portland on April 18, walked two and struck out three. “He mixed his pitches up,” said Reds 3B Scott Rolen, who went 0 for 3. “That’s what he set out to do and he accomplished it.” LeBlanc has now allowed just one earned run through 11 innings over his first two starts. He didn’t show quite the strikeout potential on Saturday as in his first start when he struck out seven batters, but he’s shown enough potential to be worth a pickup in all NL-only leagues and even in larger mixed formats. His next start is slated for April 29 against Milwaukee. (CBS Sports)
The Astros’ second-round pick from a South Carolina prep school, Jordan Lyles has rocketed up Houston’s meager prospect charts, and is currently doing well at AA-Corpus Christi. Rated by Baseball Prospectus as the Astros’ No. 3 prospect, behind SS Jio Mier and C Jason Castro, Lyles whiffed seven over five innings (four hits, one run) as a 19-year-old; 16/2 K/BB in 15.2 innings. From 
RHP Burke Badenhop was acquired as a hedge against closer Leo Nunez. Badenhop already has one save this season, and may get more if Nunez is tired or becomes ineffective. Badenhop said he was pleasantly surprised manager Fredi Gonzalez kept him in Sunday’s game after he entered in the seventh inning and retired Philadelphia 3B Placido Polanco, a right-handed hitter. Instead of going with LHP Renyel Pinto or LHP Dan L. Meyer — both of whom have struggled this year — Gonzalez stuck with Badenhop, who retired two tough lefty hitters, 2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard, to end the seventh and open the eighth, respectively. “I thought maybe they’d bring Pinto in,” said Badenhop, who has an 0.91 ERA in nine innings over five appearances. “It was nice of him to leave me in there. I kept the ball down and got some outs.” Badenhop is a viable middle reliever for the deepest of leagues that use true middle men at this point. He isn’t a candidate for saves yet, though. (CBS Sports)
Formerly a starting prospect, Sean Marshall has been getting key late-inning assignments for the Cubs, and may potentially become a candidate for saves if closer Carlos Marmol doesn’t improve his control. Marshall was called upon to get the final out in an ugly seventh inning in a loss to the Mets on Monday. Marshall allowed a hit before getting the out and threw nine pitches. His ERA is 2.16 on the year. Marshall has a blown save and a loss already this season and isn’t likely to join the starting rotation anytime soon. He has the stuff to succeed in such a role, but in his current role, he’s just a low-end NL-only option. (CBS Sports)
With Chris Carpenter out for several months, the Cardinals are giving some of their pitching prospects a shot at the fifth starter job. First was P.J. Walters, who didn’t do well, but will stick in the bullpen. Now prospect Michell Boggs has the opportunity, and he did well last Saturday, with a win, one run (zero earned) in 5-2/3 innings. He’ll get the start against a weak Nationals team on Thursday, so we’ll give him a shot. “He always had the intangibles,” said pitching coach Dave Duncan. “He needed to develop the skills that seem to be coming together for him now.”
Originally drafted by The Pi Train in the 12th round of the minor league draft, Chad Gaudin finished third in the Cubs fifth-starter competition, and the Cubs released him in early April. The Pi Train followed suit. Gaudin then signed in the best possible situation – with the pitching-starved Padres in cavernous Petco Park. He’ll get the start today, so we’ll see how it goes before activating him. Gaudin is a high-risk option for the deepest of NL-only leagues, but the two starts make him at least mildly intriguing. Consider taking that flier now if you need a starter in Fantasy Week 4.
Versatile to play four infield positions, Brian Barden, the former Diamondbacks prospect, is in a good situation with the Cardinals. He’s half of the 3B platoon while Troy Glaus is out (through June, at least), and he’s also capable at SS and 2B. He can play 1B, but usually Chris Duncan will fill in for Pujols first. Barden has been seeing some time at short and will find himself in the lineup as long as he can remain productive. His ceiling is not very high, so this could end fairly quickly. However, anyone on this type of run is worth taking a flier on in NL-only play at least. He already has 3 HR and a .391 average in just 23 at-bats so far.
Braves OF Matt Diaz is finding his way into more playing time in Atlanta. Diaz will continue to make on-and-off starts for the Braves this season. He’s an excellent contact hitter with above-average pop, but because he doesn’t get regular at-bats, he’s not worth owning outside of deeper NL-only leagues. However, with platoon-mate Garrett Anderson hitting the Disabled List for a strained quadriceps, Diaz looks to be the go-to-guy in left, at least through April.
Diamondbacks reliever Juan Gutierrez wasn’t high on the closer food chain, but he has already moved past Jon Rauch to sit closer to manager Bob Melvin in his bullpen Circle of Trust. (Rotowire) Gutierrez has long-term potential, but he is nothing more than a low-end middle reliever for the deepest of NL-only leagues that use true middle men at this point. Acquired from Houston in the Jose Valverde-Chad Qualls del, Gutierrez has been very solid this season, and he struck out five in two scoreless innings Sunday, and looked good doing it.
Houston starter Felipe Paulino has teased us in the past. Once a high-profile (at least for the Astros) starter, injuries have cost Paulino most of 2007, and he was ineffective last season. However, in a spot start filling in for the injured Brian Moehler, he did not allow a run on three hits over six innings on Sunday against the Reds but still didn’t pick up the win. Paulino was saddled with a no decision as the Reds ended up winning by besting Geoff Geary later in the game. Paulino walked two and had six K’s. “We got a great start from Paulino,” manager Cecil Cooper said. “I think he did a terrific job today. He just kind of ran out of pitches a little bit, but I thought he was really overpowering, and he opened a lot of eyes.” Paulino was called up to make this start from Triple-A. If it was up to us, Paulino would not be going down to the minors again so soon after Sunday’s performance. He was dazzling while in the game. Paulino had only three career starts coming in to Sunday’s game and he was 2-1 with a 7.11 in 2006. Paulino was a top pitching prospect before arm injuries set him back. It seems his career is on track and now Houston will give him a shot. Consider him a NL-only Fantasy SP unless the matchups are great in his favor. That won’t be in Week 3 (April 20-26) however as he only pitches once against the Brewers and Yovani Gallardo on Friday. (CBS Sports)
In the mercurial St. Louis bullpen, Josh Kinney has an outsider’s chance at getting a few saves, but specifically, he should be a decent reliever. With Jason Motte’s blown save yesterday in the home opener, Kinney may have a chance to move up in the bullpen. Here’s his Rotoworld 2009 Outlook: The hope was that Kinney would be ready to pitch last April following March 2007 Tommy John surgery, but he was unable to make it back until September. At least he did impress when he finally returned, throwing seven scoreless innings down the stretch. Kinney throws 88-91 mph and has a pretty good slider that’s proven surprisingly useful against left-handed hitters. The Cardinals are essentially penciling him into Russ Springer’s old role, so the pressure will be on for him to become an effective setup man this year. He would be a possibility in the closer’s role if the younger relievers fail to secure the job, but he’s not a realistic long-term option there. (Rotoworld)
Cardinals rookie RP Jason Motte is an elite relief prospect, but he is nothing more than a low-end middle reliever for the deepest of NL-only leagues that use true middle men down the stretch. If the Cardinals go with someone on staff as the closer in spring 2009, it would likely be Perez as the first choice at this point. Motte has 110 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings, so he clearly has good stuff. A converted catcher, he has not played in the majors, but he has good strikeout numbers in the minors. As a reliever, though, he shouldn’t matter much in Fantasy.
Braves SP James Parr tossed six sharp innings and combined with three relievers for a five-hitter to beat the Nationals in his major-league debut Thursday. Parr surrendered just two hits — both to Ronnie Belliard — walked three and struck out three. The 22-year-old right-hander didn’t allow a runner past second base. “What a night he had,” Atlanta manager Bobby Cox said. “He’s sneaky quick. He doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he’s got a little looping curve and a changeup. I was impressed. It’s a great way to break in.” 
Mets RP Luis Ayala, acquired Sunday from Washington, pitched a perfect ninth inning, striking out two for his first save of the season Friday against the Astros. Aaron Heilman, who had filled in as closer with Billy Wagner (elbow) on the DL, pitched a perfect eighth inning, striking out one. “Might see more of that as long as we’re seeing more of those types of results,” manager Jerry Manuel said of using Heilman and Ayala in the eighth and ninth. Heilman thrived in his short stint as Mets closer, so Manuel pulling the plug on him so soon makes little sense. Still, he’s the one calling the shots, so you have to consider Ayala the more favorable Fantasy option out of the Mets bullpen right now. He’ll likely have a short leash, though, so consider him only a No. 3 option. (CBS Sports)
Giants INF/C Pablo Sandoval moved over the first base on Sunday to earn a start against the Padres. Sandoval delivered again. He went 2-for-3 with an RBI, his third of the season in 31 at bats. Sandoval went 0-for-3 in his debut against Houston back on Aug. 14 and since has gotten at least one hit in every game he’s played. That’s eight straight now and he’s getting starts at first base and catcher as well. It looks as if the lowly Giants will give him the shot to play consistently and that could bump him up to a useful NL-only Fantasy catcher. (CBS Sports)