Andrew Flynn's High-Energy Fantasy Baseball – Since 1992
Posted on March 10, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Padres manager Bud Black hinted on Tuesday that he may enter the season with an 11-man pitching staff, the North County Times reports. This will mean that Mat Latos will not see his first start until April 19 at the earliest. Keep this in mind if you own or are planning to bid on Latos. (Rotowire)
Posted on March 5, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Mat Latos started and allowed one run and two hits Friday against the Mariners. Latos seemed like a pretty good bet to keep his rotation spot after a nice major league debut last year, but now he’s locked in a battle with Tim Stauffer and Sean Gallagher and he’s at a big disadvantage because the other two are out of options. His talent will win out eventually, but maybe not in early April. (Rotoworld)
Posted on February 27, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
There will be some heavy competition for the fifth spot in the Padres’ rotation. “We’ve got much more pitching depth than we’ve had,” said Padres manager Bud Black, who will have to choose between Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Cesar Ramos, Tim Stauffer and Sean Gallagher. It’s worth noting that Stauffer and Gallagher are out of options, although the latter will almost certainly stick around in the bullpen if he doesn’t make the rotation. (Rotoworld)
Posted on February 24, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Padres general manager Jed Hoyer said Tuesday he expects Mat Latos to throw between 140-50 innings this season, the team’s official site reports. Latos threw 120 innings last season – his rookie campaign – before getting shut down by the Padres, and the expectation is the organization will closely monitor his workload again this season, especially since the Padres aren’t likely contenders in the NL West. Latos isn’t assured a spot in the Padres’ rotation come Opening Day, but he’s certainly one of the favorites to grab a spot. (Rotowire)
Posted on February 3, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Padres almost-rookie Mat Latos was profiled in MinorLeagueBall.com’s “Not a Rookie” series. John Sickels had this to say:
Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.
Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he’d be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That’s outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.
His major league statistics weren’t quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that’s just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.
There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he’s a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook: “He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from “he’s just a different guy” to “what a jackass.” His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn’t look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don’t have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I’m not overly concerned about the makeup issue.
I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think “he’s gonna get hurt.” Your mileage may vary.
In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he’d come in under the 50-inning limit, I’d rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher’s list.
Posted on January 27, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Today is the third installment in the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner protected list preview. We’ve already identified six players that are keepers, now we’re moving on to “The Probables” – guys that it makes sense to protect, are generally a good value, but wouldn’t be shielded from expansion, if you know what I mean. The problem is that we need three more guys in that scenario – yikes. Here’s the breakdown:
Casey Blake
2 Years – $5
.280 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 79 RBI, and 3 steals
Blake was acquired from The Pi Train in August specifically for his protectability. Typically a model of consistency, Blake has put up roughly a 80/18/80/.275 season each of the past seven seasons. There are no prospects pushing him, and he just finished the first year of a three-year contract. With the ownership and money issues in the Dodgers’ front office, everyone needs a little stability, even if he is 36 yars old. He will run streaky, however.
Madison Bumgarner
2 Years – $2
0 Wins, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10 K’s (in 10 MLB innings)
12 Wins, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 92 K’s (in 131 High-A and AA innings)
The Giants’ No. 2 prospect behind Posey (below), Bumgarner plowed through Hi-A and AA before getting the call in September. Seeing occasional outings, including one start, Bumgarner impressed, though the loss of velocity as the season progressed was a concern. Still, the 20-year old (yes, 20) is penciled in as the Giants’ No. 5 starter to start 2010.
Mat Latos
2 Years – $5
4 Wins, 4.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 39 K’s (in 50.2 MLB innings)
8 Wins, 1.37 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 73 K’s (in 72.1 Low-A and AA innings)
Latos was picked-up mid-season as a great minor league protection candidate, but the Padres inexplicably allowed him to pitch a meaningless game on September 1st, passing the 50-inning rookie threshold, and then promptly shut him down for the season. Often cited as having an attitude problem, Latos reeled off great minor league innings, and having Petco Park as a home can’t hurt either. Decent flyer for $5 – went for $7 in the November experts draft.
Buster Posey
2 Years – $1
.325 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, and 6 steals (combined Hi-A and AAA numbers – only 17 MLB at-bats)
Posey is the heir apparent behind the plate in San Francisco. However, his value and protectability took a hit when the Giants re-signed Bengie Molina to a one-year contract, almost guaranteeing that Posey starts the season in AAA. Still it’s only $1, but it’s also my second catcher position. There’s no doubt Posey will be a star, but he’d be a much better investment if his contract clock hadn’t started last season.
Drew Stubbs
2 Years – $5
.267 Average, 27 Runs, 8 HR, 17 RBI, and 10 steals
Stubbs was a mid-season pickup, and I was planning on possibly protecting him as a minor leaguer. Lo and behold, the former No. 6 overall pick replaced Willy Taveras in centerfield, and amassed 180 at-bats. The good news is that he made enough of an impression that most are projecting him as the starting CF. While there is debate about his power numbers, everyone is in agreement that he’s worth more than $5.
Posted on December 11, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
In today’s BP Chat, Kevin Goldstein had the following to say about current RoadRunner youngsters Mat Latos and Drew Stubbs:
Chachi (Chicago): Who is your favorite pitcher from 2009 to exhaust their rookie status, without generating any serious ROY noise, to have an impact next year?
Kevin Goldstein: Mat Latos.
Jeff (Pittsburgh): Is the power that Drew Stubbs showed in his brief MLB stint legitimate?
Kevin Goldstein: If not, it’s awfully damn close. I could see him doing 15-20 home runs annually, maybe even a bit more.
Posted on November 20, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
Mat Latos was featured in The Hardball Times profile of three potential stars from the waiver wire:
Like [Nationals' starter Jordan] Zimmermann, Latos was his team’s top pitching prospect before shooting through the minors to earn a hasty promotion by a crummy team wanting a sneak peek at its future. Unlike Zimmermann, Latos is two years younger and finished the season hale and healthy. But there are other differences, too.
The Padres didn’t take Latos until the 11th round, not because of his skills, but because of his reported attitude problems—according to BA, he’s got a poor work ethic and “rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” But those skills are something else. He’s got a 95-plus mph heater, tight curve and hard slider, and has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout the minors, along with increasingly sharp control.
As a 19-year-old in short-season A-ball, Latos struck out 74 and walked 22 in 56.1 IP, giving up just pne HR. Those 22 free passes would represent the most he’d give up in the minors, and he would continue to strike batters out while keeping the baseball in the yard. At three levels in 2008, his K rate would dip slightly from 11.8 to 11.1 K/9, while his K/BB grew from 3.4 to 5.3; only his HR/9 rose to 0.6 from 0.2. His 2.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP confirmed his dominance.
Amazingly, almost all would continue to improve in 2009. Though his strikeouts fell to 9.1, his K/BB continued to rise to 6.1, his HR/9 fell to 0.1 (1 HR in 72.1 IP), and his 1.37 ERA and 0.75 WHIP were at elite levels. The Padres could wait no longer and promoted him straight from Double-A for his July 19 start against Colorado.
Posted on July 16, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
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Posted on June 30, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
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Posted on June 2, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
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