Atomic RoadRunners

Minor League Ball’s John Sickels recently did a “Prospect Retro“-spective feature on Josh Johnson:

Josh Johnson was drafted by the Florida Marlins in the fourth round of the 2002 draft, out of high school in Jenks, Oklahoma. Tall and projectable at 6-7, 215, he was erratic in high school, throwing 90-92 MPH at his best, but sometimes working in just the 85-87 range. He also needed to improve his breaking ball and changeup. Considered a first-round talent six months before the draft, his stock dropped due to an erratic spring and a University of Oklahoma scholarship. He signed late and got into just 15 innings in the Gulf Coast League, posting an 11/3 K/BB with a 0.60 ERA. I didn’t put him in the 2003 book, but if I had I would have rated him a Grade C prospect.

The Marlins ignored my advice and Johnson spent all of 2006 in the majors, pitching very well, going 12-7, 3.10 with a 133/68 K/BB in 157 innings, 136 hits allowed, a very successful rookie campaign. However, the injury bug struck in 2007. Although it was the shoulder that bothered him in the minors, in ‘07 his elbow gave out, necessitating Tommy John surgery. He came back extremely quickly in 2008 and went 7-1, 3.61 with a 77/27 K/BB in 87 innings. As you know, last year he went 15-5, 3.23 with a 191/58 K/BB in 209 innings, allowing 184 hits. Last year’s performance was better than anything he’d done in the minors, and it earned him a fat contract this off-season.

Johnson throws harder now: 92-98 last year according to fangraphs, averaging almost 95 MPH. This is about eight MPH harder than he threw in the lower minors, making him a textbook example of a “projectable” pitcher gaining velocity as he matures physically. His slider is his main second pitch; he uses his changeup a bit less than five percent of the time. Fangraphs rates all of his pitches as above average, and he picks up a lot of grounders to go with the strong strikeout rate.

My main concern for Johnson going forward is the possibility that the shoulder problems he had in the minors may recur. If he avoids injury and gets proper support from teammates, Johnson has the ability to be a Cy Young contender in the coming years along with Ubaldo Jimenez. Not bad for a guy who never really dominated in the minors. This is another example of how Grade C pitching prospects at the lower levels can sometimes develop into something very interesting.

With protected rosters due in seven days, it’s time to review the options for the 2010 Roadrunners. As I did the past two seasons, I’ve broken the list into five groups:

• The No Doubters
• The Almost Automatics
• The Probables
• The Fringe
• Not So Much

These should be self-explanatory. First up, the No Doubters:

Prince Fielder
2 Years – $29
.299 Average, 103 Runs, 46 HR, 141 RBI, and 2 steals
Fielder was acquired mid-season in a trade with Get Off Kong!, and thus re-joined the Atomic Roadrunners for his sixth overall season, which is impressive, since he’s only 25 years old. After a power dip in 2008 due (possibly) to a vegetarian diet, the homers (and everything else) returned. Signed to a relatively modest $29 contract, he should again earn his keep in 2010.

Josh Johnson
1 Year – $5
15 Wins, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 191 K’s
Johnson, who just signed a four-year, $39 million contract extension, was touted early on as a Cy Young dark horse, though that would be tough in Florida. He had a lot of innings (209) coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008, but was pretty solid, though he did have a few clunkers that damaged his ERA a bit down the stretch. A potential ace worthy of protection for $5.

Clayton Kershaw
1 Year – $9
8 Wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 185 K’s
Picked up mid-season in a trade with Misogynistic Padres, the 21-year old Kershaw found himself as de-facto staff ace for the Dodgers entering the post-season. He did relatively well, without major flame-outs, but he was gassed after a long season. The toll manager Joe Torre placed on his young arm is worrysome, but Kershaw should definitely deliver $9 worth of value, especially since all reports indicate he’s still improving.

Marlins signed RHP Josh Johnson to a four-year, $39 million contract. Johnson’s future in Florida was in doubt after the two sides reached an impasse with negotiations in November, but coincidental or not, they made considerable progress after MLB and the MLBPA singled out the Marlins for not spending enough of their revenue-sharing money on player payroll. The new contract buys out Johnson’s final two years of arbitration and his first two years of free agency. Johnson, who turns 26 later this month, will earn $3.75 million in 2010, $7.75 million in 2011 and $13.75 million in In 2012 and 2013. Johnson has quickly emerged as one of the National League’s best starters since his return from Tommy John surgery, going 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings with the Marlins last season. (Rotoworld)

Just two days after the MLB, the MLBPA, reached an agreement with the Florida Marlins that they would increase MLB player payroll after the union for the players believed them to not be spending revenue-sharing dollars the manner the current CBA defines it, they broke out the wallet.

According to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, the Marlins have signed pitcher Josh Johnson to a guaranteed $39 million contract that will keep the player wrapped up with the Marlins through 2013.

In a sign that the contract is tied to the opening of the new ballpark for the Marlins, something outlined in the agreement with MLB and the MLBPA, Johnson’s contract is heavily backloaded. As reported by Crasnick:

The deal will pay Johnson $3.75 million this season, $7.75 million in 2011 and $13.75 million in each of the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

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Johnson’s contract is the second-biggest ever for a pitcher heading into his second salary arbitration. The only bigger deal was signed by Johan Santana, who agreed to a four-year, $40 million contract with Minnesota in February 2005 after winning the Cy Young Award.

Johnson made $1.4 million last year. His $3.75 million salary for 2010 is an increase of 168 percent. To add to the deal, he sees an increase of 107 percent from this season to 2011 and an 83 percent increase from 2011 to 2012 when his salary levels off for the 2013.

As further reported by Crasnick, the jumping off point for the near recording-setting salary arb deal, was Zack Greinke’s four-year, $38 million contract with Kansas City, while the Marlins countered with a reported three-year, $23 million offer.

With the salary arbitration filing period ending tomorrow, the Marlins have six players left that are salary arbitration eligible, Jorge Cantu, Leo Nunez, Renyel Pinto, Cody Ross, Anibal Sanchez, and Dan Uggla. Uggla will be a key player to deal with in the salary arbitration process. Last year, the Marlins and the top-tier second baseman went all the way to salary arbitration hearing, where Uggla won his $5.35 million asking figure to the Marlins $4.4 million offering figure.

As of Thursday – the day before the salary arbitration filing period ends – there were 133 players still salary arbitration eligible. See The Biz of Baseball’s salary arbitration tracker for details.

According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, Josh Johnson has agreed to a four-year, $39 million contract extension with the Marlins. Considering that Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick originally used Zack Greinke’s four-year, $38 million contract as a framework, this is a pretty good deal. The new contract buys out his final two years of arbitration and his first two years of free agency. Johnson, who turns 26 later this month, emerged as Florida’s ace last season, winning 15 games while posting a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings. He has a 3.34 ERA in 47 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008. (Rotoworld)

Previously:

Josh Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick is “cautiously optimistic” about reaching a long-term deal with the Marlins. After talks reached an impasse in November, Sosnick is now saying he’s “open to anything,” including the possibility of resuming talks during the season. For now, the two sides are just “just throwing ideas back and forth” on the arbitration-eligible right-hander, but Sosnick is “much more optimistic” that he felt a couple of months ago. It makes sense since the Marlins reached an agreement with the players’ union to increase spending in anticipation of their new ballpark. If an extension can’t be reached, Johnson figures to make over $4 million in arbitration. (Rotoworld)

Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reports that Josh Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick still won’t agree to anything other than a four-year deal with the Marlins, but his stance has softened compared to November. We’re not sure what that means since if anything, Sosnick should have the upper hand with everyone around baseball taking a closer look at how the Marlins conduct their business. The chances of Johnson actually getting the four-year deal he covets should be better than ever. The two sides are reportedly negotiating a new contract for Johnson this week, but if an extension can’t get done, he’ll continue to go year-to-year in arbitration. (Rotoworld)

The Marlins plan to discuss a contract extension for Josh Johnson with his agent this week. In November, contract negotiations fell apart over agent Matt Sosnick’s demands for a four-year deal with the Marlins only willing to guarantee three years. Johnson took a major step towards being an ace in 2009, tossing 209 innings of 3.23 ERA ball. If Florida is willing to guarantee four years, an accord will likely be reached. (Rotoworld)

Also, from MLB TradeRumors.com:

Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that Josh Johnson’s agent Scott Sosnick hasn’t ruled his client eventually signing an extension with the Marlins. Talks reached an impasse last month, but after getting a one-year deal done with Ricky Nolasco on Thursday, Sosnick sounded optimistic about Johnson’s future in Florida. “We’re doing everything we can to try to bridge the gap, and get a deal done,” said Sosnick. “And we’re wanting to do something that will keep J.J. in Florida for the long term.” Johnson desires a four-year contract worth at least $42 million, while so far the Marlins are only willing to do three years and $23 million. (Rotoworld)

According to Josh Johnson’s agent, Matt Sosnick, the Marlins and his client are not close on long-term contract negotiations. The Marlins offered a three-year, $23 million contract, while Johnson wants a four-year deal for at least $42 million. Johnson and Sosnick are using the four-year, $38 million deal the Royals gave Greinke in January as a yardstick. “Greinke signed his deal coming off a worse year than Josh had,” Sosnick said. “We’re not going to do a deal that does not far exceed Greinke’s deal for four years.” Sosnick believes Johnson will pitch for the Marlins in 2010 before getting traded next offseason. “My hope is that he signs a long-term deal and stays in Florida,” Sosnick said. “But I would say it’s much more likely that we’ll do a one-year deal this year and he’s playing for somebody else in 2011.” (Rotoworld)

The Hardball Times feature fantasy article “Wavier Wire” by Michael Street today features Carlos Lee, David Wright, and our very own Josh Johnson:

As a result [of his Tommy John surgery], 2009 wasn’t terribly steady, though Johnson turned in a career year in virtually every significant category. He had flashes of dominance along with rough starts, including a scare in May when he was pulled from a start for shoulder weakness. All of them the kinds of things you expect from a young pitcher who’s the ace of his staff.

Looking back at his GP graph, the downward trend on his K/9 rates highlights the big worry about Johnson: As Marc Hulet points out in his GP writeup, logging 200+ IP is a leap of more than 120 IP from 2008 and a scary workload for a young arm just one year away from TJS. Fredi Gonzalez is proving to be a real arm-shredder, and he’s signed up as the Marlins skipper through at least 2011.

As 2009 progressed, Johnson clearly lost some of his control, perhaps because of this workload. Even though his strikeouts rose, so did his walks; except for a stellar August (43 Ks and 8 BBs in 37.1 IP, including taking a no-no into the seventh inning) he put more runners on base after the break than before. His BABIP rose every month in the second half, too, either a measure of bad luck, diminishing defense or him losing giddyup on the ball.

And giddyup is what he’s got. Johnson’s amazingly talented, with a fastball in the 94-96 range and a hard slider, and both have great movement. Because he can throw a two- and four-seamer and change the tilt on his slider, he gets away with a lesser change-up. If he could develop that change of pace, he’d be even more devastating.

Like many other young pitchers, however, the question with Johnson is not the skills, but his health, durability and makeup. He’s never had big problems in the mental department, but those injury questions will linger until he can put together consecutive injury-free seasons, something he has yet to do in the majors. Last year’s 209 IP was not only a big step up from his 87.1 IP in 2008, it was the most he’s ever thrown as a pro.

This makes 2010 a make-or-break year for Johnson, and just in time, too. He’s headed for free agency after the 2011 season, and putting together another solid season or two would drive his price into the stratosphere. Another injury setback might make him tainted goods.

Ranked on pure talent alone, Johnson’s a very valuable pitcher. The question marks in his future, particularly his health, will drive down his value, and rightfully so. Other owners in your league might forget about this, but you shouldn’t. TJS recovery is as ordinary these days as the surgery, but Johnson still needs to prove that he can pump fastballs into a mitt over and over without breaking down. The history of baseball and its promising pitchers shows that this is no easy task, particularly with a surgically rebuilt elbow.

This all makes him a good gamble, depending on your strategy and the outlook of your fellow owners. I tend to stick with more established talent in the volatile pitching area, so I’d avoid Johnson unless he’s a bargain. But if he stays healthy, the return on that gamble could be huge.

According to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, the Marlins are expected to re-open long-term contract negotiations with Josh Johnson at some point. Johnson, 25, went 15-5 in 2009 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He’s under team control through 2011 so the Marlins don’t have to budge just yet, but they clearly want him to be a part of their organization for a long time to come. The stud right-hander turns 26 in January. (Rotoworld)

Update: The Rangers must be confident in their chances next year. Both T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com and Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com are reporting that the team offered Justin Smoak and Neftali Feliz to the Marlins for Josh Johnson.

Marlins GM Michael Hill said Sunday that there was no chance Josh Johnson would be traded this winter. “Yes, I can say with certainty, yes,” Hill said when asked if Johnson would remain with the team into next season. Johnson trade speculation started nine days ago, when he and the Marlins reached an impasse on extension talks. (Rotoworld)

Also: Josh Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick would be “surprised” to see the pitcher traded this winter, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. “I’d be less surprised if Elijah showed up at my parents’ house this Passover than if they trade him before the start of the season,” Sosnick said. According to two sources with knowledge of the club’s intentions, the Marlins do not plan to trade Johnson this winter. Speculation ran rampant following a “tweet” by John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus on Friday night, but it appears the Marlins will hang on to their young ace for now. (Rotoworld)

Apparently Debunked: John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus hears that the Marlins are willing to trade Josh Johnson “right now” for the right package. It stands to reason that the Marlins would entertain offers for the 25-year-old Johnson with a weak free agent market and Roy Halladay also expected to be traded this winter. While Johnson won’t cost the $15.10 million Halladay will next season, teams would have to give up some combination of major-league ready talent and prospects in exchange for two years of team control of one of the best young power arms in the game. (Rotoworld)

Joe Frisaro of MLBlogs identified some options for the Marlins and Josh Johnson, after the two sides reached an impasse in long-term contract negotiations.

Conventional wisdom has it that the Marlins will wind up trading Josh Johnson now that negotiations for a multiyear deal fell through. Before everyone jumps the gun on what the future holds, ask yourself, “When do the Marlins do anything conventional?”

What history has shown us about the franchise is they don’t walk in step with everyone else in the league. They often go against the grain, and they have enjoyed success doing it their way.

Johnson’s agent, Matt Sosnick, recently told MLB.com: “The strategy the Marlins have used has been good for the Marlins. They’ve been competitive almost every year with less.”

Indications are the Marlins would be perfectly willing to retain Johnson on one year contracts for his final two arbitration years. The ace right-hander, who earned $1.4 million in 2009, is looking at signing for between $4 million and $4.2 million in 2010.

It’s after 2010 that many feel the Marlins would consider trading Johnson. Since the team doesn’t speak publicly about contract negotiations, it’s purely speculation.

Don’t dismiss the prospect that the team will end up signing Johnson for 2011 as well, and if need be, take the compensatory draft picks in 2012 if the right-hander signs elsewhere when he reaches free agency. Also, the team may decide to keep him in 2011, and if they fall out of contention, then trade him at the July 31 deadline.

In the past, the Marlins accepted draft picks for pitchers Carl Pavano and A.J. Burnett when they moved on through free agency.

Granted, the Marlins have also dealt players who became too pricey before reaching free agency. Josh Beckett had one more year of arbitration when he was dealt to the Red Sox on Thanksgiving Night 2005.

That year was different for Florida. At the time, a potential new stadium deal fell through, and there was a mandate to dramatically reduce payroll.

The Marlins now have the security of a new ballpark opening in 2012. After that point, when their revenues rise substantially, the organization projects to have a mid-range payroll.

The team takes every player on a case-by-case basis. And they look to win every year, and adjust accordingly after each season. So if they feel keeping Johnson for two years gives them the best chance to win, they just might do so, rather than be reactionary and deal him to get something in return.

Besides, the Marlins view draft picks as receiving value.

And let’s not forget the fact that Johnson won’t be a free agent for two more years. So while both sides aren’t talking now doesn’t mean they can’t reconsider and open negotiations before then.

Josh Johnson and the Marlins have reached an “impasse” on contract talks, leaving the chances of a multi-year agreement in doubt. “Based on our conversations, there’s no chance of doing a long-term deal with the Marlins,” Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick said. “We made it clear that it was going to be this year or it wasn’t going to happen. It was now or never. And the Marlins agreed.” According to Sosnick, the Marlins weren’t comfortable offering anything more than a three-year deal. Johnson, under team control through 2011, is due to make $4 million as an arbitration-eligible player next season. (Rotoworld)

Update (11/25): Despite recent failed contract extension talks, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told the Miami Herald that Josh Johnson will not be traded anytime soon. “We do love Josh,” Loria said Tuesday. The two sides had trouble finding common ground on long-term contract discussions last week, but it apparently hasn’t tarnished the relationship. Johnson, 25, went 15-5 in 2009 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He’s under team control through 2011. (Rotoworld)

Josh Johnson surrendered five runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies on Sunday but did not factor into the decision of a 7-6 Marlins’ loss on Sunday. Johnson struck out five and walked one, but he did yield seven hits. It was a disappointing outing from Johnson, with Jayson Werth being the only Phillies’ regular in the lineup. Still, the young right-hander had a superb campaign with a 15-5 record, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts. (Rotoworld)

Up:

• CM Mat Gamel
• MI Rusty Ryal
• DH Oscar Salazar

Down:

• CM Steve Pearce
• MI Ian Desmond
• DH Josh Thole

Notes:

• This being the final week, only X-Men made any pickups, acquiring OF Tony Gwynn, Jr. to replace Orlando Hudson on the active roster. He also acquired Diamondbacks P Billy Buckner, as a reserve, which won’t really help him in this final week.
• Final tally of players on the 2009 Atomic RoadRunners: 92  Yikes!
• Number of players still on the roster from Draft Day 2009: 7 (Chris Iannetta, John Baker, Mat Gamel, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Gonzalez)