Atomic RoadRunners

Today we have the fourth installment in the my series of 2010 Protected List columns – The Fringe. These guys could go either way, with a lot of factors ultimately determining whether they make the cut. Of last year’s Fringe (Blake DeWitt, Jody Gerut, Chris Dickerson), two were protected, while hindsight said that I was 0-for-3 on that score. So, lesson learned, here goes this year’s attempt, in which I try to be more discerning:

John Baker
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 59 Runs, 9 HR, 50 RBI, and 0 steals
Baker was selected in the 2009 auction, and didn’t seem to have that great a season. In fact, it often seemed that he was slumping and losing playing time to platoon partner Ronny Paulino, but his totals actually made his $5 salary worthwhile. Due to the Roadrunner roster crunch, it’s between Baker and Buster Posey, who is cheaper and has more upside.

Verdict: Release

Matt Diaz
2 Years – $5
.313 Average, 56 Runs, 13 HR, 58 RBI, and 12 steals
Seemingly as usual, Diaz was an early-season pickup and produced some decent numbers in a platoon in the Braves outfield, shared with Garrett Anderson. Normally a .280 hitter, the 2009 average was a surprise, as were the 12 steals. Most projection systems have him earning between $9-14 for 2010, so likely to be protected this year, unless the Braves sign Johnny Damon or Jermaine Dye in the next few days before the deadline.

Verdict: Probable Protection – Game Day Decision

[Update: Protected]

Mat Gamel
2 Years – $5
.242 Average, 11 Runs, 5 HR, 20 RBI, and 1 steal
Gamel was protected as a minor leaguer and was one of Milwaukee’s top prospects coming into 2010. He was called up in May, but languished on the bench, as the hot hand of Casey McGehee manned third base. A defensive liability, he has lost most of his luster as a hitter, his strong 2008 may now be an outlier.

Verdict: Release

Ryan Hanigan
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 22 Runs, 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 0 steals
Hanigan took over from Ramon Hernandez in July, and at a glance, seemed to do a good job, especially when it came to batting average. However, reviewing his stats, there’s just nothing there. The re-signing of Hernandez by the Reds relegated Hanigan to backup duty again, and most agree that will be his role for the next decade.

Verdict: Release

Chase Headley
1 Year – $5
.262 Average, 62 Runs, 12 HR, 64 RBI, and 10 steals
Headley has been on the RoadRunners since midway through the 2007 season, when he was gunning for the Texas League MVP. Stuck in left field due to the arrival of Kevin Kouzmanoff the past two seasons, Headley should be the starter at the hot corner in 2010 with the Crushin’ Russian’s departure to Oakland. Headley’s numbers should look better at 3B, and those steals are a bit of a surprise.

Verdict: Protect

Angel Pagan
2 Years – $5
.306 Average, 54 Runs, 6 HR, 32 RBI, and 14 steals
Pagan was a great pickup mid-season, as he became a starter due to the injuries to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church, who was later traded to Atlanta. .300 average and 14 steals should play everyday, but this is the Mets, who brought in Jason Bay this offseason. But then Carlos Beltran underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, and may miss the first month or two of the season. To counter, the Mets took Lil’ Sarge, Gary Mathews, Jr. off the Angels’ hands, so now Pagan has to compete for the CF job, and eventual 4th OF slot. Too much risk for what would be my 4th OF slot. No thanks.

Verdict: Release

Brendan Ryan
2 Years – $5
.292 Average, 55 Runs, 3 HR, 37 RBI, and 14 steals
Another sneaky fast performer that was picked up mid-season, this time to replace the injured Jose Reyes on the roster. As a starting shortstop, Ryan will have to fend off prospect Travis Greene, as well as middle infield re-tread Julio Lugo, and may find himself batting ninth behind the pitcher due to manager Tony LaRussa’s whims. That said, you pretty much know what you get with him, though the average and steals are probably high-water marks. We’ll look for him as a pick-up or even minor league pick, but the roster spot is too valuable.

Verdict: Release

Edinson Volquez
1 Year – $2
4 Wins, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 47 K’s (in 49 innings)
Volquez was the injury-challenge player acquired from Get Off Kong! in June (Jose Reyes went the other way, neither played again in 2009 – a wash). After several false-starts in rehab, Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery in August, and will likely miss most of the 2010 season, though he is targeting a mid-season return. The protected list isn’t a good place for rehab.

Verdict: Release

Sean West
2 Years – $5
8 Wins, 4.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 103 MLB innings)
West was called up from AA to fill in for the injured Andrew Miller in May, and he did alright the first time through the league. He had some great outings, and some rather pedestrian ones as well. He could likely use more seasoning, but would be a decent 5th starter type. But not worth a protected slot.

Verdict: Release

Blake DeWitt was protected from the 2008 Roadrunners, but things started to unravel before the season started. Originally penciled in as the starting second baseman, the Dodgers went out and signed former gold-glove free agent Orlando Hudson (for only $3 million – can you blame them?). Thus DeWitt was to get regular at-bats in AAA-Albuquerque. However, manager Joe Torre wanted DeWitt available on the bench, so now he’s getting 3 at-bats per week as the third or fourth pinch hitter. This isn’t helping the Roadrunners (or DeWitt). So we say goodbye to DeWitt, as the Roadrunners need a hitter.

I now understand why X-Men released Dallas McPherson last season, even though he was lighting up the Pacific Coast League. The problem is that at this rate, he’ll never be active for the big-league club. McPherson signed a few weeks back with the Giants, who assigned him to AAA Fresno. However, we learned this week that McPherson has yet to even report to Fresno, let alone play well for them. So sayonara, there, Mr. McPherson – lots of help you were.

Eric Hinske, the Roadrunners’ 8th-round minor league pick, has seen little action in Pittsburgh. Hinske, who signed with the Pirates back in January, has only made two starts so far in 2009. He is hitting .200 in 10 at-bats. He’s been relegated to 5th outfielder, behind Craig Monroe, and hasn’t seen starts at 3B to spell struggling youngster Andy LaRoche. Hinske had a chance to win the right field spot in spring, but he missed the first three weeks with a ribcage injury and never recovered. He remains a nice sleeper in deeper NL-only leagues, because he might get a stretch of starts at some point this season, but don’t worry about him in mixed leagues just yet.

Tim Hudson, 4th-round minor league pick, opened the season on the 60-Day disabled list following elbow surgery. He’s not expected back until August, and will hopefully help the Braves in the stretch drive. We need the roster spot more than we can wait. The bad news from a protection standpoint is that he’ll be $10, and that he also has a player option in his contract, so he could leave the Braves (and the NL) as a free agent.

Josh Kinney, who was picked up as our FAAB selection back in Week One (April 7th), was lit up in several low-leverage bullpen appearances, and was sent down to AAA Memphis to work things out. Kinney had a 13.50 ERA over 2 2/3 innings this season. He won a bullpen spot out of spring training but simply couldn’t avoid giving up the long ball as he allowed home runs in each of his last two outings. Kinney should never be owned in any Fantasy leagues that don’t use middle men. He was never activated for the Roadrunners.

Sergio Romo is another casualty of the roster crunch. Our 9th-round minor league selection, Romo opened the season on the 15-Day DL due to a sprained elbow ligament, and isn’t expected back now until mid-May. Romo had an excellent 2008 season, posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 34 innings. He is an exceptional middle reliever when healthy and can be used in leagues that use true middle men. We’ll keep an eye our for him once he returns.

Brandon Jones was the Roadrunner’s 12th-round minor league selection, the Mr. Irrelevant of the 2009 Draft. Though ESPN’s Eric Karabell liked him, he lost the numbers crunch game in the Braves’ outfield, even after Josh Anderson was traded to Detroit. With more talented players behind him in the Braves minor league system (Jason Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez), this may have been Jones’ last shot, at least without a change of scenery. We’ll keep an eye on him and see how he does at AAA Gwinnett, but he’s likely lost his relevance in our NL-Only league. Mr. Irrelevant indeed.

The Detroit Tigers signed RHP Brandon Lyon, who had been with the Diamondbacks, to a one-year, $4.25 million contract. He can earn an extra $500,000 in incentives. Lyon becomes the favorite to close for the Tigers over Fernando Rodney. The Cardinals will have to keep looking elsewhere after losing out on another target. Perhaps they’ll re-sign Jason Isringhausen or take a chance on a rehabbing Akinori Otsuka.

Lyon should be the clear favorite to close over Fernando Rodney. Neither was really any good last year, but Lyon has the better track record and is the more durable of the two. Ideally, Joel Zumaya would step up and push both into setup roles by June or July.

Agent Barry Meister said previously that Lyon had a two-year, $9 million deal on the table. If he indeed signs with Detroit, Lyon will compete with Fernando Rodney for closing duties. The Cardinals are said to be the other finalists for his services. (Rotowire)

Lyon will have a chance to earn the closing role in Detroit this spring. “He was not promised the closer’s job,” GM Dave Dombrowski said. “He thinks he’s going to win the job and that’s why he wanted to come here.” (Rotoworld)

It was thought that if Lyon signed with the Cardinals to be the closer in 2009, the Atomic Roadrunners would protect him as the 15th man – and fourth closer on the staff, joining the Braves’ Mike Gonzalez, the Marlins’ Matt Lindstrom, and the Giants’ Brian Wilson.

Braves rookie SP James Parr, who pitched six shutout innings in each of his first two starts, had worse than a 9.00 ERA for the second straight start Sunday against the Mets. He allowed four runs on four hits in 1 2/3 innings, striking out two and walking four. He didn’t factor in the decision. Parr disappointed in his two-start week and no longer looks like a hot commodity off the waiver wire. His four walks are particularly discouraging. He’s not worth starting in the final week of the season, when he goes Saturday at Houston. (CBS Sports)

Jaime Garcia has long-term potential as a starting pitcher, but the Cardinals threw him to the wolves in relief this season. He played in two games in July, pitching seven innings and giving up six hits and three earned runs. He made one start, going five innings July 20 against San Diego but did not figure in the decision. Garcia is ranked as the top pitching prospect in the St. Louis organization and the lefty, a 22nd-round pick in 2005, was 7-6 with a 3.73 ERA in 18 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season. He is unquestionably a solid long-term prospect. On September 5th, the Cardinals announced that rookie SP Jaime Garcia was scheduled for reconstructive elbow surgery on Monday. He will miss the entire 2009 season. Tommy John surgery usually requires at least a year of recovery, but the Cardinals plan to give Garcia plenty of time. He’s a decent prospect, but this surgery obviously takes him off the Fantasy radar for a while. (CBS Sports)

Braves rookie SP Charlie Morton couldn’t even get out of the second inning Friday at St. Louis, losing to fall to 3-8. He allowed four runs on five hits in 1 1/3 innings, striking out one and walking five. “Nobody goes out there and tries to throw a ball, but when I tried to bear down I couldn’t find it,” Morton said. “It wasn’t a thing where I couldn’t believe I couldn’t get them out, it wasn’t anything like that.” Morton has recorded quality starts in three of his last five appearances, but his non-quality starts have had the potential to single-handedly destroy your Fantasy team. In other words, he remains too inconsistent for us to recommend him outside of NL-only leagues. His next start is scheduled for Thursday against the Marlins. (CBS Sports)

Carlos Villanueva and Eric Gagne combined for three hitless innings of relief and Salomon Torres closed it out with his 24th save in 29 chances Wednesday. Villanueva is nothing more than middle relievers for the deepest of leagues that use true middle men down the stretch. Torres has taken the closer’s job and run with it. (CBS Sports)

Jason Bergmann was a nice starter, but unfortunately he recorded two wins in his 3-1/2 months on the Roadrunners. That’s what happens when you play for the Nationals. Plus, he would have cost $10 to protect, and we couldn’t risk actually activating him, so there you have it. It was a nightmarish start for Nationals starter Jason Bergmann Wednesday night against the Mets. Bergmann lasted just three innings and allowed 10 runs — all of them earned — on nine hits. He walked six men and had one strikeout. He needed 89 pitches to go just three full frames. Far and away the worst outing of the season for Bergmann, the man still has an ERA under 5.00 after this fiasco. He’d been pitching pretty well prior to Wednesday and we certainly don’t expect a repeat of this performance next week. That said, he pitches for the Nationals so wins will always be hard to come by. He is a two-start pitcher in Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 18-24) but that makes him a viable option in only the deepest of mixed Fantasy leagues. His next scheduled start comes Tuesday at the Phillies and he’ll finish the week at the Cubs. (CBS Sports)

John Bowker was sent down to AAA Fresno last week, and we’re not sure he’s coming back. Even though he was second on the team in homers (with 9), he just wasn’t hitting consistently. Bowker has been seeing plenty of time at first base since mid-June, but he hasn’t homered in his last 96 at-bats. He’s also managed just nine hits in his last 78 at-bats, bringing his average down to .247 on the season. (Rotoworld)

Brewers RP Seth McClung allowed three walks, two hits and two runs over 1 1/3 innings Sunday in his first action since being removed from the rotation. McClung was splitting starts with Dave Bush in the No. 5 spot in Milwaukee, but Bush was named the full-time guy on Saturday. With his move to the bullpen, McClung lost all of his Fantasy value outside of super-deep NL-only leagues. (CBS Sports)

Rockies OF Ryan Spilborghs was moving around for the first time in a week since being sidelined with a pulled muscle in his side. Spilborghs was getting everyday at-bats hitting at the top of the Rockies lineup before getting hurt. He doesn’t have a massive amount of power, but you can expect him to hit for a decent average and for him to score some runs and steal a handful of bases, when healthy. He’s a nice, low-end starting option for NL-only leagues when healthy, so stash him in those formats for the next couple of weeks. (CBS Sports)

We’re going to miss Spilborghs. A Roadrunner for each of the past three seasons, 2008 was the first time that he had broken with the squad from Spring Training, having been selected in the third round of the minor league draft. But with a $10 salary, he wasn’t going to be protected, and facing a lengthy rehab, he likely wouldn’t be able to play until September. And at that point, the Rockies are likely to be showcasing Willy Taveras and bringing up Dexter Fowler with a call-up, so he probably won’t contribute much for the remainder of 2008.

Fatty can’t hit. Waste of $23. Two years/$36 Million??? He makes Juan Pierre look good. Just got into double-digits – in RBI’s! Strikes out 37% of the time. Batting .169! TWO homers.

Here’s what Ron Shandler said going into 2008:

“Lots went wrong in 2007, but the focal point was his power. Most of his BPIs rebounded in the 2nd half, EXCEPT his power. Perhaps most remarkable was that he still had nearly 100 RBIs with his .222 BA. Lotsa oddness. Projection: 89 Runs, 28 HR, 99 RBI, 4 SB, .254 average

Here’s what Baseball Prospectus had to say:

“What’s strange about Jones’s 2007 season is that all he lost were the homers. Look at those lines: 2007 is a typical Andruw Jones season, less 15 homers, five singles, and some intentional walks. His fly-ball rate was unchanged, so it wasn’t that. Now the $90 million question: was it a change in his skills, or just one of those fluke seasons? Given his age and the stability of everything else, lean toward the latter. Despite the down season, Jones was still the best of the winter’s free-agent center fielders, and because of it, a bargain for the Dodgers, who signed him to a two-year $36.2 million contract. Projection: 77 Runs, 29 HR, 92 RBI, 7 SB, .256 average”

Here are other projections from the pre-season:

AVG   R   HR   RBI   SB    Source
--------------------------------
.249  89  33    99   8      Lindy's
.249  95  39   117   5      Fantasy Baseball Guide
.254  --  29    98   4      Fantasy Baseball Magazine
.252  97  36   111   5      Rotowire
.241  87  32    97   5      Fanball
.254  90  42   104   6      Fantasy Baseball Index

Yikes. More recently:

Slumping Dodgers center fielder Andruw Jones did not start for the second successive game, even though he was 4-for-9 lifetime against Kevin Correia with three home runs. He hit for reliever Brian Falkenborg with runners at the corners in the sixth and delivered an RBI single against Sergio Romo to cut the Giants’ lead to 7-6. Manager Joe Torre has given Jones every opportunity to make good in the first year of a $36.2 million, two-year contract, but he can’t afford to wait any longer for him to come around. “We talked, and Joe just told me what he’s going to go with. There’s nothing I can do about it except get the job done when I get the opportunity,” Jones said. “The situation came up, and it felt good just to go out there and get a key hit.”

Jones, a five-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winner, is 10-for-56 with six RBI in his past 20 games after missing 38 because of an injured right knee that required arthroscopic surgery. “I think there was a sense of urgency all the time with him, based on his own expectations of himself,” Torre said. “He’s a very proud individual and he certainly knows he’s a whole lot better player than he’s shown us. I know it hurts him, but there’s no easy way around it. We’re at a point in the season now where we’re trying to win a pennant.” Consider Jones a stashee in deeper leagues right now, but clearly not someone to trust in your lineup right now. He is not old, but he sure doesn’t swing that bat like he is young anymore. (CBS Sports)

Goodbye, fatty. Good riddance.

Jared Burton went on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with a strained muscle in his right side. Burton has developed into one of the Cincinnati Reds’ most dependable setup relievers. The right-handed Burton was 4-1 with a 2.23 earned run average in 43 games, often as the setup man for closer Francisco Cordero. He pulled a muscle in his side on a pitch July 6, and has been bothered by it since then. He is a solid middle reliever for deeper leagues that use true middle men when healthy. (CBS Sports)

No knock against Tommy Hanson. Picked up by the Roadrunners after his no-hitter in AA, I thought that he might be a good minor-league keeper. The problem is, he’s not really that impressive a prospect, and needs some work. For example, in his start after his no-hitter, he couldn’t get out of the third inning. With the addition of Jaime Garcia today, Hanson becomes expendable.

Plus, we’ve had bad luck with Braves pitchers this season. Chuck James was protected and now is shaky at best in AAA Richmond. Peter Moylan was the closer for one day before having to go under the knife with Tommy John surgery. Manny Acosta was erratic and inexperienced. Jorge Campillo pitched well before being excised from the Roadrunners by the WBRL. Don’t forget Charlie Morton is still on our bench as a testament to inexperience. Thus far, only Mike Gonzalez has proved his worth, so we’ll be avoiding Braves pitchers for the rest of the year.

Sean Marshall has lost both of his starts since joining the Cubs rotation, but has 13 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings. Marshall’s time in the Cubs rotation is about to end as Carlos Zambrano (shoulder) is ready to come off the DL as early as Friday. When active, Marshall is primarily a NL-only Fantasy SP. (CBS Sports)

Carlos Ruiz has struggled to hit left-handed pitching throughout his career. Last season, Ruiz batted .189 against left-handers, and after going 0-for-3 Tuesday night against Red Sox LHP Jon Lester, he is batting only .194 against lefties this season. “Chooch has to get better on lefties,” said manager Charlie Manuel, who could start to use backup C Chris Coste more often against left-handers. Ruiz has been a bust for Fantasy owners and nothing more than an NL-only option at this point. Coste can mash when he plays, so consider him the better option between the two in deeper Rotisserie formats. (CBS Sports)

Again. Greg Reynolds’ next start has been moved back a day, to Sunday at Detroit, according to the Denver Post. The Rockies will take advantage of Thursday’s off day to give Reynolds an extra day of rest. Colorado is gathering several veteran starting pitchers in Triple-A and Reynolds has only a tenuous hold on a major league rotation spot. (Rotowire)