Atomic RoadRunners

This is the final installment of the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series. Protected lists are due for submission this Monday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern. Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2010:

Kyle Blanks
2 Years – $10
.250 Average, 24 Runs, 10 HR, 22 RBI, and 1 steal
Blanks was a top 1B prospect for the Padres, but was moved to the outfield due to the presence of Adrian Gonzalez. To give you a vision, Blanks is like a fatter Frank Thomas in the outfield. He can slug, but he probably should be tethered to first base. He was lost for the season in August with plantar fasciaitis, and just isn’t worth protecting for $10, as he was originally drafted by Misogynistic Padres in the third round of the minor league draft.

Kiko Calero
2 Years – $5
2 Wins, 1.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 69 K’s (in 60 innings)
Still a free agent as of this writing, Calero strung together a good season in the Marlins’ pen, but is not a player anyone should consider protecting. No save chances, just some decent WHIP if you need it.

Nick Masset
2 Years – $5
5 Wins, 2.37 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 76 innings)
Like Calero, Masset is another guy that was picked up for ERA and WHIP assistance. The problem with relievers is you can usually never bank on them repeating their performance from year-to-year. One bad outing will taint the stats for three months. Meanwhile, some other scrub is mowing them down, and thus is worth the FAAB flyer in May. Masset just signed a two-year, $2.58 million extension, and will likely be one of the top Reds set-up guys, but not for $5.

Steve Peace
2 Years – $5
.206 Average, 19 Runs, 4 HR, 16 RBI, and 1 steal
Originally picked up by The Pi Train in 2009, Pearce was a second-hand pickup in August. Pearce’s career is at a crossroads, and may already be over, though the Pirates will keep paying him for another year or two. Pearce had a tremendous season in 2007 in AAA as a 1B/OF, but he couldn’t repeat the magic. Pittsburgh got tired of waiting for him to develop, and now he’s behind Garrett Jones and possibly Jeff Clement at 1B, and also may lose out to Jones, Ryan Church, and Brandon Moss in right field (assuming Milledge and McCutchen occupy left and center, respectively). And he keeps getting worse at the plate. Pass.

Ryan Roberts
2 Years – $5
.279 Average, 41 Runs, 7 HR, 25 RBI, and 7 steals
Picked up after the Roadrunner trade of Brandon Phillips, Roberts pretty much was the starting 2B for the Diamondbacks after the deadline trade of Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and he filled in rather well. At the end of the season, it was thought that Roberts might have a shot as the starting 2B for 2010, but then the D’backs received Tony Abreu from the Dodgers to complete the Jon Garland deal, and then signed a below-market-value Kelly Johnson in January. Now either Roberts or Abreu is the primary middle-infield backup, assuming the D’backs can move Augie Ojeda. Roberts also can play 3B and OF, so he’s a handy guy to have around. Obviously, not worth protecting.

Rusty Ryal
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 11 Runs, 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 0 steals
If Ryan Roberts isn’t worth protecting, what does that mean for Roberts’ backup in Rusty Ryal? Bad news, that’s what. Ryal was called up in August to help out, and to his credit, he filled in at first and second base once it was clear the Diamondbacks were phoning it in. He did hit 17 homers and 70 RBI with a .290 average at AAA Reno, but quite obviously, there’s no protections here.

Delwyn Young
2 Years – $5
.266 Average, 40 Runs, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 2 steals
Young was given every chance to earn the 2B job after the Pirates traded Freddy Sanchez to the Giants at the deadline. The fact that Pittsburgh traded for Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura is an indication of how that experiment went. Pirates GM Neal Huntington has announced that Young will be on the squad in a utility role, as he can play OF corners, 2B, and a passable 1B (though he’d be forth or fifth on that depth chart). Not really protectable material.

Today we have the fourth installment in the my series of 2010 Protected List columns – The Fringe. These guys could go either way, with a lot of factors ultimately determining whether they make the cut. Of last year’s Fringe (Blake DeWitt, Jody Gerut, Chris Dickerson), two were protected, while hindsight said that I was 0-for-3 on that score. So, lesson learned, here goes this year’s attempt, in which I try to be more discerning:

John Baker
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 59 Runs, 9 HR, 50 RBI, and 0 steals
Baker was selected in the 2009 auction, and didn’t seem to have that great a season. In fact, it often seemed that he was slumping and losing playing time to platoon partner Ronny Paulino, but his totals actually made his $5 salary worthwhile. Due to the Roadrunner roster crunch, it’s between Baker and Buster Posey, who is cheaper and has more upside.

Verdict: Release

Matt Diaz
2 Years – $5
.313 Average, 56 Runs, 13 HR, 58 RBI, and 12 steals
Seemingly as usual, Diaz was an early-season pickup and produced some decent numbers in a platoon in the Braves outfield, shared with Garrett Anderson. Normally a .280 hitter, the 2009 average was a surprise, as were the 12 steals. Most projection systems have him earning between $9-14 for 2010, so likely to be protected this year, unless the Braves sign Johnny Damon or Jermaine Dye in the next few days before the deadline.

Verdict: Probable Protection – Game Day Decision

[Update: Protected]

Mat Gamel
2 Years – $5
.242 Average, 11 Runs, 5 HR, 20 RBI, and 1 steal
Gamel was protected as a minor leaguer and was one of Milwaukee’s top prospects coming into 2010. He was called up in May, but languished on the bench, as the hot hand of Casey McGehee manned third base. A defensive liability, he has lost most of his luster as a hitter, his strong 2008 may now be an outlier.

Verdict: Release

Ryan Hanigan
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 22 Runs, 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 0 steals
Hanigan took over from Ramon Hernandez in July, and at a glance, seemed to do a good job, especially when it came to batting average. However, reviewing his stats, there’s just nothing there. The re-signing of Hernandez by the Reds relegated Hanigan to backup duty again, and most agree that will be his role for the next decade.

Verdict: Release

Chase Headley
1 Year – $5
.262 Average, 62 Runs, 12 HR, 64 RBI, and 10 steals
Headley has been on the RoadRunners since midway through the 2007 season, when he was gunning for the Texas League MVP. Stuck in left field due to the arrival of Kevin Kouzmanoff the past two seasons, Headley should be the starter at the hot corner in 2010 with the Crushin’ Russian’s departure to Oakland. Headley’s numbers should look better at 3B, and those steals are a bit of a surprise.

Verdict: Protect

Angel Pagan
2 Years – $5
.306 Average, 54 Runs, 6 HR, 32 RBI, and 14 steals
Pagan was a great pickup mid-season, as he became a starter due to the injuries to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church, who was later traded to Atlanta. .300 average and 14 steals should play everyday, but this is the Mets, who brought in Jason Bay this offseason. But then Carlos Beltran underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, and may miss the first month or two of the season. To counter, the Mets took Lil’ Sarge, Gary Mathews, Jr. off the Angels’ hands, so now Pagan has to compete for the CF job, and eventual 4th OF slot. Too much risk for what would be my 4th OF slot. No thanks.

Verdict: Release

Brendan Ryan
2 Years – $5
.292 Average, 55 Runs, 3 HR, 37 RBI, and 14 steals
Another sneaky fast performer that was picked up mid-season, this time to replace the injured Jose Reyes on the roster. As a starting shortstop, Ryan will have to fend off prospect Travis Greene, as well as middle infield re-tread Julio Lugo, and may find himself batting ninth behind the pitcher due to manager Tony LaRussa’s whims. That said, you pretty much know what you get with him, though the average and steals are probably high-water marks. We’ll look for him as a pick-up or even minor league pick, but the roster spot is too valuable.

Verdict: Release

Edinson Volquez
1 Year – $2
4 Wins, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 47 K’s (in 49 innings)
Volquez was the injury-challenge player acquired from Get Off Kong! in June (Jose Reyes went the other way, neither played again in 2009 – a wash). After several false-starts in rehab, Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery in August, and will likely miss most of the 2010 season, though he is targeting a mid-season return. The protected list isn’t a good place for rehab.

Verdict: Release

Sean West
2 Years – $5
8 Wins, 4.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 103 MLB innings)
West was called up from AA to fill in for the injured Andrew Miller in May, and he did alright the first time through the league. He had some great outings, and some rather pedestrian ones as well. He could likely use more seasoning, but would be a decent 5th starter type. But not worth a protected slot.

Verdict: Release

Today is the third installment in the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner protected list preview. We’ve already identified six players that are keepers, now we’re moving on to “The Probables” – guys that it makes sense to protect, are generally a good value, but wouldn’t be shielded from expansion, if you know what I mean. The problem is that we need three more guys in that scenario – yikes. Here’s the breakdown:

Casey Blake
2 Years – $5
.280 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 79 RBI, and 3 steals
Blake was acquired from The Pi Train in August specifically for his protectability. Typically a model of consistency, Blake has put up roughly a 80/18/80/.275 season each of the past seven seasons. There are no prospects pushing him, and he just finished the first year of a three-year contract. With the ownership and money issues in the Dodgers’ front office, everyone needs a little stability, even if he is 36 yars old. He will run streaky, however.

Madison Bumgarner
2 Years – $2
0 Wins, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10 K’s (in 10 MLB innings)
12 Wins, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 92 K’s (in 131 High-A and AA innings)
The Giants’ No. 2 prospect behind Posey (below), Bumgarner plowed through Hi-A and AA before getting the call in September. Seeing occasional outings, including one start, Bumgarner impressed, though the loss of velocity as the season progressed was a concern. Still, the 20-year old (yes, 20) is penciled in as the Giants’ No. 5 starter to start 2010.

Mat Latos
2 Years – $5
4 Wins, 4.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 39 K’s (in 50.2 MLB innings)
8 Wins, 1.37 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 73 K’s (in 72.1 Low-A and AA innings)
Latos was picked-up mid-season as a great minor league protection candidate, but the Padres inexplicably allowed him to pitch a meaningless game on September 1st, passing the 50-inning rookie threshold, and then promptly shut him down for the season. Often cited as having an attitude problem, Latos reeled off great minor league innings, and having Petco Park as a home can’t hurt either. Decent flyer for $5 – went for $7 in the November experts draft.

Buster Posey
2 Years – $1
.325 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, and 6 steals (combined Hi-A and AAA numbers – only 17 MLB at-bats)
Posey is the heir apparent behind the plate in San Francisco. However, his value and protectability took a hit when the Giants re-signed Bengie Molina to a one-year contract, almost guaranteeing that Posey starts the season in AAA. Still it’s only $1, but it’s also my second catcher position. There’s no doubt Posey will be a star, but he’d be a much better investment if his contract clock hadn’t started last season.

Drew Stubbs
2 Years – $5
.267 Average, 27 Runs, 8 HR, 17 RBI, and 10 steals
Stubbs was a mid-season pickup, and I was planning on possibly protecting him as a minor leaguer. Lo and behold, the former No. 6 overall pick replaced Willy Taveras in centerfield, and amassed 180 at-bats. The good news is that he made enough of an impression that most are projecting him as the starting CF. While there is debate about his power numbers, everyone is in agreement that he’s worth more than $5.

Yesterday we started off our upcoming protected list preview with the 2010 No Doubters. There were only three, as for the first time since 2006 it didn’t include “Lincecum – $7″. Along with a new rule change that reduces the minimum amount of protectables from 9 to 5, the 2010 Roadrunners may be off to a shaky start. Here’s a look at the next group – the “Almost Automatics”. These guys would be No Doubters except for one or two chinks in the armor. Here’s the breakdown:

Johnny Cueto
1 Year – $5
11 Wins, 4.41 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 132 K’s
Cueto was acquired mid-year from Cover Zero, and shortly after that, the 23-year-old starter had a run-in with Dusty Baker’s School of Young Pitcher Fatigue. It was apparent to the entire world that he was either gassed, hurt, or both, but a 15-day DL stint for a sore hip seemed to cure all. According to most sources, his ERA and WHIP won’t be this bad, as he was lit up a bit in some of those aforementioned starts. Still plenty of potential here, for $5

Chris Iannetta
1 Year – $1
.228 Average, 41 Runs, 16 HR, 52 RBI, and 0 steals
Long-time Roadrunner Iannetta finally was given the starting gig for 2009, but his paltry average allowed Yorvit Torrealba to steal at-bats. Always a power threat, Iannetta suffered a May hamstring injury, and he just wasn’t the same after that. Last season he was a no-doubter, but this season, with the lousy average, and the signing of former Royals starter Miguel Olivo a threat to take more at-bats, Iannetta has some issues to be concerned about. He did sign a three-year, $8.35 million contract extension in early January, so at least he’ll be on the squad. Almost too much drama for $1.

Randy Wells
2 Years – $7
12 Wins, 3.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 104 K’s
Wells was picked up in May, and proceeded to surprise all, earning a sixth-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting (with one 2nd place vote). A converted catcher, Wells survived well in his second and third times through the league. While his ERA can’t possibly be as good, he should be a solid starter for 2010.

With protected rosters due in seven days, it’s time to review the options for the 2010 Roadrunners. As I did the past two seasons, I’ve broken the list into five groups:

• The No Doubters
• The Almost Automatics
• The Probables
• The Fringe
• Not So Much

These should be self-explanatory. First up, the No Doubters:

Prince Fielder
2 Years – $29
.299 Average, 103 Runs, 46 HR, 141 RBI, and 2 steals
Fielder was acquired mid-season in a trade with Get Off Kong!, and thus re-joined the Atomic Roadrunners for his sixth overall season, which is impressive, since he’s only 25 years old. After a power dip in 2008 due (possibly) to a vegetarian diet, the homers (and everything else) returned. Signed to a relatively modest $29 contract, he should again earn his keep in 2010.

Josh Johnson
1 Year – $5
15 Wins, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 191 K’s
Johnson, who just signed a four-year, $39 million contract extension, was touted early on as a Cy Young dark horse, though that would be tough in Florida. He had a lot of innings (209) coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008, but was pretty solid, though he did have a few clunkers that damaged his ERA a bit down the stretch. A potential ace worthy of protection for $5.

Clayton Kershaw
1 Year – $9
8 Wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 185 K’s
Picked up mid-season in a trade with Misogynistic Padres, the 21-year old Kershaw found himself as de-facto staff ace for the Dodgers entering the post-season. He did relatively well, without major flame-outs, but he was gassed after a long season. The toll manager Joe Torre placed on his young arm is worrysome, but Kershaw should definitely deliver $9 worth of value, especially since all reports indicate he’s still improving.

Here’s the Agenda:

THURSDAY

6:00 PM: Welcome Reception - in the "Pavilion" @ DoubleTree

FRIDAY

8:00 AM: Introductions and Welcome
	RON SHANDLER, Baseball HQ
8:30 AM: Arizona Fall League Scouting Report
   	JASON GREY, ESPN
   	KIMBALL CROSSLEY, Toronto Blue JayS
9:30 AM: Break
9:45 AM: The Great Debates
	1: Regarding player performance analysis and fantasy strategy...
	TODD ZOLA, Mastersball.com
	RON SHANDLER, Baseball HQ
	2: Catchers are the last of the truly scarce positions...
	JEFF ERICKSON, Rotowire
	TRISTAN COCKCROFT, ESPN.com
10:45 AM: Squeezing Value out of the Top 10
	JOHN SICKELS, Minorleagueball.com
	JASON GREY, ESPN.com
	ROB GORDON, Baseball HQ
	MODERATOR: Jock Thompson
12:00 Noon - Lunch (on your own)
12:35pm: AFL ballgame
	Scottsdale Scorpions @ Phoenix Desert Dogs
	(Phoenix Municipal Stadium)
3-6 PM: 8th Annual Xperts Fantasy League (XFL) Draft
   	Jeff Winick, Brian Feldman, Alex Patton/Peter Kreutzer
	Perry Van Hook, Trace Wood, John Menna, Rick Wilton
	Doug Dennis, Todd Zola, Brian Walton, Greg Ambrosius
	Ron Shandler, Don Drooker, Steve Moyer, Lawr Michaels
Also:
4-5 PM: Gaming and Roster Analysis forum
6:35 PM: AFL ballgame
	Peoria Saguaros @ Peoria Javelinas (Peoria Sports Complex)

SATURDAY

8:00 AM: Fact or Fluke? The Surprises of 2009
	JOE SHEEHAN, Baseball Prospectus
	JEFF ERICKSON, Rotowire
	DOUG DENNIS, Baseball HQ
	MODERATOR: Patrick Davitt
9:30 AM: The Great Debates
	3: Punting saves on draft day...
	PETER KREUTZER, AskRotoman.com
	ALEX PATTON, AlexPatton.com
10:00 AM: Break
10:15 AM: The Great Debates
	4: In redraft leagues, when it comes to baseball's top prospects...
	GREG AMBROSIUS, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
	NICK MINNIX, KFFL
10:45 AM: Fantasy Information Panel
	LENNY MELNICK, FantasyPros911.com
	STEVE GARDNER, USA TODAY Sports Weekly
	TODD ZOLA, Mastersball.com
	STEVE MOYER, Baseball Info Solutions
	TIM HEANEY, KFFL
	MODERATOR: Brent Hershey
11:45 AM: Lunch  Buffet @ DoubleTree
1:00 PM: Special Guest Speaker -
	MIKE BERGER, Director of Player Development for the Arizona Diamondbacks
2:00 PM: The 15th Annual Rick Wilton Injury Session
	RICK WILTON, Baseball Injury Report (published by Fanball.com)
3:00 PM: 10th Annual Arizona Challenge
6:15 PM: Rising Stars Game (AFL All Star Game) (Surprise Stadium) 

SUNDAY:

8:00 AM: The Great Debates
	5: In keeper leagues...
	LAWR MICHAELS, CREATiVESPORTS.com
	STEVE MOYER, Baseball Info Solutions
	6: When scouting and statistical information contradict...
	JASON GREY, ESPN.com
	JOE SHEEHAN, Baseball Prospectus
9:00 AM: Special Guest Speaker -
	KIMBALL CROSSLEY, Toronto Blue Jays Scout
10:00 AM: Break
10:15 AM: Special Guest Speaker -
	TIM PURPURA EVP/COO Minor League Baseball, former GM Houston Astros
11:15 AM: Open Forum Q&A

Batting Average:

Qualifiers:

• .299 – Prince Fielder*
• .285 – Brad Hawpe*
• .284 – Ryan Theriot*
• .280 – Casey Blake*
• .276 – Brandon Phillips*
• .267 – Adam Dunn*
• .264 – Chipper Jones*
• .262 – Chase Headley
• .252 – Emilio Bonifacio*

Non-Qualifiers:

• .321 – Josh Thole*
• .313 – Matt Diaz
• .292 – Brendan Ryan
• .282 – Fernando Tatis*
• .280 – Ian Desmond
• .279 – Jose Reyes*
• .279 – Ryan Roberts
• .271 – Rusty Ryal
• .271 – John Baker
• .267 – Drew Stubbs
• .266 – Delwyn Young

Home Runs:

• 46 – Prince Fielder* (2nd in NL)
• 38 – Adam Dunn*
• 23 – Brad Hawpe*
• 20 – Brandon Phillips*
• 18 – Casey Blake*
• 18 – Chipper Jones*
• 16 – Chris Iannetta
• 13 – Matt Diaz
• 12 – Chase Headley
• 11 – Jake Fox*

Runs:

• 103 – Prince Fielder*
• 84 – Casey Blake*
• 82 – Brad Hawpe*
• 81 – Adam Dunn*
• 81 – Ryan Theriot*
• 80 – Chipper Jones*
• 78 – Brandon Phillips*
• 72 – Emilio Bonifacio*
• 62 – Chase Headley
• 59 – John Baker

Runs Batted In:

• 141 – Prince Fielder* (T-1st in NL)
• 105 – Adam Dunn*
• 98 – Brandon Phillips*
• 86 – Brad Hawpe*
• 79 – Casey Blake*
• 71 – Chipper Jones*
• 64 – Chase Headley
• 58 – Matt Diaz
• 54 – Ryan Theriot*
• 52 – Chris Iannetta

Steals:

• 25 – Brandon Phillips*
• 21 – Ryan Theriot*
• 21 – Emilio Bonifacio*
• 14 – Angel Pagan
• 14 – Brendan Ryan
• 12 – Matt Diaz
• 11 – Willie Harris*
• 11 – Jose Reyes*
• 10 – Chase Headley
• 10 – Drew Stubbs

Also:

• Angel Pagan was 4th in Triples with 11 (the leader had 13).
• Ryan Theriot was tied for 6th in Caught-Stealing with 10.
• Adam Dunn was 2nd in Walks with 116, while Prince Fielder was 4th with 110 and Chipper Jones was 5th with 101.
• Prince Fielder was 2nd in SLG (.602), OPS (1.014), total bases (356) and total plate appearances (719), and was 5th in OBP (.412).
• Adam Dunn was 2nd in number of Pitches Seen (2893), while Prince Fielder was 6th (2804).
• Adam Dunn was 3rd in pitches per plate appearance (4.33), while Casey Blake was 4th (4.31) and Brad Hawpe was 7th (4.24).
• Matt Diaz was tied for 4th in HBP with 13. Chris Iannetta was tied for 9th with 11.

* – Not with Atomic Roadrunners for entire season.

Wins:

• 15 – Josh Johnson
• 15 – Tim Lincecum* (2009 Cy Young Winner)
• 12 – Randy Wells
• 11 – Johnny Cueto*
• 9 – Max Scherzer*
• 8 – Clayton Kershaw*
• 8 – Sean West
• 7 – Todd Wellemeyer*
• 7 – Kenshin Kawakami*

ERA:

• 2.48 – Tim Lincecum* (2nd in NL)
• 2.79 – Clayton Kershaw* (5th in NL)
• 3.05 – Randy Wells
• 3.23 – Josh Johnson
• 4.12 – Max Scherzer
• 4.55 – Johnny Cueto

WHIP:

• 1.05 – Tim Lincecum* (4th in NL)
• 1.16 – Josh Johnson
• 1.23 – Clayton Kershaw*
• 1.28 – Randy Wells
• 1.34 – Max Scherzer*
• 1.36 – Johnny Cueto*

Strikeouts:

• 261 – Tim Lincecum* (Led NL)
• 191 – Josh Johnson
• 185 – Clayton Kershaw*
• 174 – Max Scherzer*
• 132 – Johnny Cueto*
• 105 – Chad Gaudin*
• 105 – Kenshin Kawakami*
• 104 – Randy Wells

Saves:

• 38 – Brian Wilson* (T-3rd in NL)
• 15 – Matt Lindstrom*
• 10 – Mike Gonzalez
• 9 – Juan Gutierrez*
• 3 – Kyle McClellan*
• 2 – Jon Rauch*
• 2 – Dan Meyer*

Also:

• Tim Lincecum was 3rd (225.1) and Josh Johnson was 13th (209)  in Innings Pitched.
• Tim Lincecum was tied for 1st in Complete Games (4), while Josh Johnson had 2.
• Mike Gonzalez and Brian Wilson were both tied for 2nd with 7 blown saves.
• Mike Gonzalez was 3rd in Games Pitched with 80.
• Johnny Cueto was 2nd in HBP’s with 14, while Max Scherzer was tied for 5th with 10.
• Randy Wells and Todd Wellemeyer were tied at 12th for inducing GIDP’s with 20.

* – Did not spend entire season with Atomic Roadrunners

This final installment of the 2009 WBRL Auction (keep in mind, we still have the Minor League Draft that follows) starts in Round 10.  There aren’t many quality players out there, or at least expensive ones.  To reset, two teams, X-Men and Misogynistic Padres, are each down to needing one pitcher.  Shoeless Jews and Stanimals have both completed their pitching.  And of course, Goodfellas has $12 to purchase $12 players.  And away we go . . .

Round Ten – 5:19pm

• I start the nominations still needing a corner guy, so I throw Atlanta’s Casey Kotchman out there for $1.  I’ve been reading a lot on Kotchman, and kind of like him, since 2008 was a bit of a down year, with an injury, then a trade away from the only team he’s known (I guess his dad has been an Angels’ scout for a while).  Long story short, I get Kotchman for $3, with some compliments.  Fine by me.
• Alex nominates Jamie Moyer, and all of a sudden, Alex’s roster is complete.
• Paul nominates Washington 2B Ronnie Belliard, and this being the tenth round, gets him for $1.
• Drew gets his third pitcher in Nationals starter Collin Balester, who still has a hint of prospect-dom.
• Stan gets Phillies 3B Greg Dobbs for $1. I had him as a minor league pick (for a few weeks) last season.
• Barry nominates Rockies OF Ryan Spilborghs, whom I’ve had at various times over the past three seasons.  There’s talk that with the trade of Matt Holliday, Spilborghs will naturally settle into a starting slot.  My chances of getting my last OF for $2 are dashed when he goes to Barry for $10.  Yikes.
• Mark nominates the Diamondbacks 1B Chad Tracy, who after microfracture knee surgery, only goes for $1.
• Steve nominates Reds OF Chris Dickerson.  I had him in 2008, and I went back and forth on protecting him, ultimately deciding not to (apparently he’s no Jody Gerut). I get in the bidding at $2, but Tom takes him for $7. Tom now has four Reds OF’s on his squad (Willy Taveras and Jay Bruce were protected, plus today’s Jerry Hairston and Chris Dickerson). Yowza.
• Tom then nominates Brewers C prospect Angel Salome.  It’s too early for prospects, but he goes for $1.
• Tim closes out the round with Pirates P Ian Snell. Mark trumps me with a $2 bid, and Tim, who has $9, doesn’t bite again.

Round Ten lasts 20 minutes.  100 players have been auctioned in four hours and 24 minutes – that’s one ever two minutes and 36 seconds – on average.  We’re cruising here, and down to nine teams bidding, as Alex has completed his X-Men roster.

Round Eleven – 5:39pm

• Still needing an OF (and two pitchers), I nominate Giants OF Aaron Rowand. Mark uses his vast resources to fill his DH slot with Rowand for $2. Damn. And with that, Mark’s roster is complete.
• As Alex’s roster is completed, Paul next nominates Reds SS Alex Gonzalez for $1, with no other bids.
• Drew nominates Rockies OF Seth Smith, and Paul also gets him for $2, using his DH slot.
• Stan then nominates Cubs OF Kosuke Fukudome.  Barry had him last year for $15, though I think this year’s bidding will be a more accurate assessment of his abilities.  Steve gets him for $7.
• Barry nominates Phillies SS prospect Jason Donald, and gets him for $1.  Hey, that’s his only shortstop. Ew. (AS in he may not see the majors this year).
• Steve nominates Cubs 2B Mike Fontenot.  I had him two seasons ago, actually trading for him (I had no 2B at the time), though he wasn’t the main piece. Steve keeps him for $1
• Tom nominates the Mets 1B/OF Dan Murphy, whom looks decent. I get in a $2 bid, but Tom takes him for $3.
• Tim nominates, and immediately gets, Cubs wide receiver Jeff Samardija for $1, and with that, Tim’s roster is completed.

Round Eleven takes 20 minutes. Mark and Tim have completed their rosters. Time for a money check:

• Andrew: $4 for  3 players -
• Paul:     $18 for 2 players
• Drew:     $11 for 11 players
• Stan:     $12 for  4 players
• Barry:     $12 for 4 players
• Steve:     $3 for 3 players
• Tom:     $5 for  1 players
• Alex:     Roster Complete ($0 remaining)
• Mark:   Roster Complete ($6 Remaining)
• Tim:     Roster Complete ($8 remaining)

Round Twelve – 5:59pm (lightning round)

• Andrew: Cardinals OF Chris Duncan $1 – I finally get my cheap OF, and he’s been hitting the ball well in Spring Training. Hitting roster completed.
• Paul: Giants C prospect Buster Posey for $1
• Drew: Pirates rookie P Daniel McCutchen.  Looks like Drew is aiming for high-upside with his $1 picks
• Stan: Nominates Braves OF Garrett Anderson, whom Barry grabs for $2.
• Barry: Braves reliever Rafael Soriano, and gets him for $1
• Steve: Braves OF Josh Anderson for $1
• Tom: Brewers reliever Carlos Villanueva for $1. Tom’s roster is complete.

Round Thirteen – Lost track of time

• Andrew: Giants P prospect Madison Bumgarner, nominated for $2, though for the life of me I can’t figure out why. I don’t believe there was anyone that also needed a pitcher with only$2 to spend.  Hmm. Oh, I got him by the way.
• Paul: Pirates prospect Pedro Alvarez at CM for $1 for his last player.
• Drew: Giants P prospect Tim Alderson for $1. Yep, Drew’s going all-prospects.  This will potentially harm the minor league draft at this rate, and is in danger of becoming a joke.
• Stan: Giants OF Nate Schierholz for $1.
• Barry: Pirates 1B/OF Steve Pearce for $1.
• Steve: Dodgers reliever Cory Wade for $1.  Steve’s roster is complete.

Round Thirteen completed in less than 10 minutes. Final money check:

• Andrew: $1 for 1 pitcher
• Drew: $9 for 9 players
• Stan: $3 for 3 hitters
• Barry:  $8 for 1 pitcher
• Alex:     Roster Complete ($0 remaining)
• Mark:   Roster Complete ($6 Remaining)
• Tim:     Roster Complete ($0 remaining)
• Tom:  Roster Complete ($4 remaining)
• Paul:  Roster Complete ($16 remaining – whoops)
• Steve: Roster Complete ($0 remaining)

Round Fourteen (and beyond)

• Andrew: Marlins relief prospect (and Matt Lindstrom handcuff) Jose Ceda for $1. Roster Complete.
• Drew: Marlins OF prospect Mike Stanton for $1
• Stan: Marlins CM prospect Gaby Sanchez for $1
• Barry: Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa for $1. Roster Complete, end of “Round”
• Drew: Diamondbacks P prospect Jarrod Parker for $1
• Stan: Pirates OF Nyger Morgan for $1
• Drew: Nationals starter Daniel Cabrera for $1. A former Oriole, Drew probably would have bid $2 if he could.
• Stan: Giants 2B Eugenio Velez. Roster Complete.
• Drew then selected the following players, each for $1:
• Rockies P prospect Jhoulys Chacin
• Pirates 3B prospect Andy LaRoche
• Diamondbacks OF prospect Gerardo Parra
• Astros C prospect Jason Castro
• Cardinals P prospect Jesse Todd
• Nationals P prospect Ross Ohlendorf

Money remaining:

• $0 – Atomic RoadRunners, X-Men, Goodfellas, Stanimals, Cover Zero, Misogynistic Padres
• $4 – Get Off Kong!
• $6 – Pirate Smokers
• $7 – The Pi Train
• $16 – Shoeless Jews

That’s it for the 2009 WBRL auction.  Everyone take a ten minute break, and we’ll be back with the 2009 WBRL minor league draft.

Up to this point it’s been a textbook example on how to spend months devising and revising a plan and budget, and then spending ten minutes blowing that up, and then an uncomfortable hour trying to patch everything back together – with no luck.  Since the quality of the players is reduced, we’ll go to bullet-point format from here on out.

Round Six – 3:39 pm

• Andrew: “Ramon Hernandez” – At this point I figured it best to lick my wounds and focus on filling out the remainder of my roster as best as I could.  After all, I only had $19 for six players, including a Corner, Catcher, Outfielder, and three Pitchers.  I’ll let the last value OF come later in the auction, so the best bet is to grab one of the last remaining quality catchers. Alex, of course, gets him for $8 (just over my budget), and puts him at DH, as he’s already protecting Brian McCann and Chris Snyder.  This is a make-up move by Alex, as I was trying to acquire Hernandez from X back in 2005, but instead got Johnny Estrada from Drew.  Hernandez was then traded to Baltimore, where he’s been ever since.  Or that’s what I’m telling myself.
• Alex: “Randy Wolf” – Not very exciting, and it shows how thin the starting pitching pool is already.  Alex’s self-nomination results in a $5 Randy Wolf.
• Paul: “Christian Guzman” – ugh – empty batting average, and only when he’s on the field.  Good luck with that.  Paul ends up getting him for $4.
• Drew: “Scott Olsen” – Imagine Drew nominating a Nationals player? The de-facto “ace” of the Nats goes to Barry for a whopping $2.
• Stan: “Houston Street” – New closer for the Rockies, and a good handcuff for Stan, who is protecting Manny Corpas.  However, Stan, who has $18 for 9 players at this point, can’t keep up with the bidding, and Street goes to Tim for $10, joining Chad Qualls at $12 for an inexpensive bullpen.
• Barry: “Jordan Zimmerman” – Hot rookie Nationals pitcher – where’s Drew?  Here he is! I actually bid $3 here, since I thought Zimmerman would be a good substitute for Tommy Hanson, but quickly decided not to go further. Drew gets his second pitcher for $7.
• Mark: “Milton Bradley” – Here’s an interesting case.  You know he’ll hit for some average, with a bit of pop. You’re also guaranteeing yourself at least two trips to the DL.  I had him briefly in 2007 when he came over from the A’s to the Padres, and he was a great pickup, who was then flipped quickly.  Some may recall he then blew out his knee arguing with an umpire in September, but I had already traded him away. At this point, I obviously can’t afford him, and Mark locks him up for $16.
• Steve: “Miguel Tejada” – Everyone knows Tejada is on the decline, but how much?  Since I can’t even bid, I won’t find out. Mark (who had the most cash coming into the round) spends $17 to firm up his infield.
• Tom: “Kenshin Kawakami” – Kawakami was one of the players I had on my short list.  He had a decent spring, and I figured there would be some upside.  Bidding got a bit carried away, but I ended up grabbing him for $7.
• Tim: “Ivan Rodriguez” - At this point Tim hadn’t filled in a catcher yet, and with $46 for 6 players, Pudge was the best remaining catcher on the board, at least in my rankings.  Interestingly, though, Barry ended up with the top bid at $9.

Round Six lasted 27 minutes.

Round Seven – 4:06 pm

• Andrew: “Ryan Zimmerman” – Zimmerman was the best guy on the board, period.  I had originally selected him in 2005 when he signed quickly out of Virginia with the Nationals, protecting him as a $1 minor leaguer.  I traded him in a deal in 2006 to Drew, who held onto him. Zimmerman is Drew’s all-time team captain, basically, but with Drew needing 13 players, I don’t think he’ll get him this season.  Neither will I – I can bid a whopping $8 as my maximum.  So what happens? Drew gets him for $27, his maximum.  He fended off bidding from Tim, Mark, and Barry.  Bravo! That’s fortitude.  Drew now has $12 remaining for 12 players.  See you in the 11th round!
• Alex nominated Kevin Gregg, who went to Paul for $7
• Paul nominated Luis Castillo, who went to Barry for $7
• Drew nominated Todd Helton, whom I attempted to bid on (I even bid $6!), but he went for $14 to Tim.
• Stan nominated Wandy Rodriguez, who went to Tom for $8
• Barry nominated Sean Marshall, who went to Paul for $3
• Mark nominated Mike Cameron, who, after some back-and-forth bidding, went to Tim for $19
• Steve nominated Freddy Sanchez.  Barry grabbed him for $9
• Tom nominated Jerry Hairston, Jr., and got him for $5, as his first outfielder.
• Tim nominated a Brewers catcher, Jason Kendall, and he finally got on the board with that one, for $1 – the first dollar player.

Round Seven also lasted 27 minutes.  After seven rounds, it’s time for a money check:

• Andrew: $12 for 5 players
• Alex:     $39 for 7 players
• Paul:     $28 for 7 players
• Drew:     $12 for 12 players (including 8 pitchers)
• Stan:     $18 for 9 players
• Barry:     $29 for 8 players
• Mark:     $52 for 6 players
• Steve:     $29 for 6 players
• Tom:     $16 for 4 players
• Tim:     $12 for 3 players

Round Eight – 4:33 pm

• I nominated the last remaining “good” catcher, the Marlins John Baker, whom I was hoping I could get for $3.  I had to go to $5, bidding against Tim. I’m now the first owner with single-digit cash remaining ($7)
• Alex: Taylor Buchholz – got him for $1
• Paul: Felipe Lopez – Alex get him for $10
• Drew: Juan Pierre – Paul gets him for $3
• Stan: Cla Meredith – Another $1 pitcher
• Barry: Edgar Renteria – Mark still has plenty of cash remaining, and gets him for $10
• Mark: Eric Byrnes – Steve drops $14 on the possibility of a Byrnes comeback
• Steve: Chris Volstad – Paul takes his last pitcher for $3
• Tom: Lou Marson – Tim curiously says “$2″ and then there were crickets.
• Tim: Jason Motte – Mark spends $14 on the possible Cardinals closer

Round Eight lasted 24 minutes, with two $1 players, a $2, and two $3, the rounds are getting quicker.

Round Nine – 4:57pm

• I nominate another high-risk, high-reward pitcher, who could be in line for saves (and is a Michigan alum) in J.J. Putz. Steve grabs him for $5, which is out of my price range.
• Alex: Clint Barmes – A quick back-and-forth and Alex has him for $3
• Paul: Bill Hall – Barry fills out his infield for $4
• Drew: Josh Willingham – Alex gets him for $8.  See? This is the level of OF I should have been focusing on, instead of Brad Frickin’ Hawpe at $29
• Stan: Bobby Howry – Stan seems to be using a relief pitching sheet from 2004. He gets Howry for $1, and his pitching is completed
• Barry: Jeremy Hermida – Another decent mid-game OF for $9. Alex now joins me in the single-digit cash club ($8)
• Mark: Orlando Hudson – Alex must be in a hurry, as he grabs Hudson for $7, completing his hitting.
• Steve: Jeff Francouer – Tim gets in on the OF rush and grabs Frenchy for $9
• Tom: Ramon Castro – this is the level of remaining catchers.  Stan actually bids $3 to get the Mets backup.
• Tim: Joe Blanton – Tim can now only nominate pitchers. Barry says $2.

Round Nine takes 22 minutes.  Here’s the money check:

• Andrew: $7 for  4 players
• Alex:     $1 for     1 players – hitting complete
• Paul:     $22 for 5 players – pitching complete
• Drew:     $12 for 12 players (including 8 pitchers)
• Stan:     $13 for 6 players – pitching complete
• Barry:     $23 for 6 players
• Mark:     $28 for 4 players
• Steve:     $10 for 4 players
• Tom:     $16 for 4 players
• Tim:     $9 for  1 players – hitting complete

Well, this portion of the draft wasn’t as catastrophic as it could have been.  Since I only spent $12 on two players ($7 Kawakami, $5 Baker), it couldn’t have been that bad.  But this was all about recovery, and for once I got to witness others painting themselves into a corner.  Tom has pretty much neglected outfield, and Drew of course needs 12 one-dollar players, so it’s not all bad.

The end of the auction is coming in Part Five!

[click to read Part One - Strategy or Part Two - The First Round]

Well, to recap, in the first round I spent almost half my money on a player I wasn’t supposed to get at a price too high, and then spent $10 more than budgeted for my DH.  Now I have no hope of getting a decent outfield, a first basemen, or a pitching staff, and it’ll be a looooong summer.  Hyperbole, sure, but it’s supposed to put you in the mood.

Round Two – 1:45pm

Andrew: “Johan Santana”

Well, I figured I’d get him out there, especially since I can’t bid on him – not responsibly, that is.  There have been drunk bids by those semi-intoxicated with alcohol, and there have also been a fair number of bids on studs by those semi-intoxicated by the auction action, as it were.  Sometimes reason goes out the window.  See Exhibit A, Jose Reyes.

I actually think Santana is a bit undervalued because of his perceived “bad year” last year – based solely on only getting 12 wins.  Never mind that his bullpen blew nine of his leads.

Santana goes for $39 to Paul, who got him last year for $43, so kudos to him.  He’s on the board.

Alex: “Carlos Zambrano”

Ugh.  Zambrano is a pitcher is dislike immensely.  He’s not really as good as his auction price, and he always seems to be overvalued.  His WHIP is getting worse each year, as are his peripherals, and he’s more and more hittable.  Of course, there are those that have rose-colored glasses towards the big fellas.  I guess if you squint hard enough he’ll start to look like CC Sabathia.  Plus the Superstation Cubs premium adds a buck or two for the guys that do/did live in Chicago.

In a surprise, Zambrano only goes for $21, in less-than-spirited bidding.  The bigger surprise is that he went to Barry, whom I would not have pegged as a Big Z fan.  Ah, well, he’s on the board.

Paul: “Rich Harden”

Now Harden is a quality pitcher – great K’s, great ERA and WHIP – when he pitches.  The Cubs got a good turn out of him last season, but now he’s questionable for the start of the season, and the rumors are that he’ll be the No. 5 starter so he can get extra rest.  Another guy I wanted, but that’s now shot to hell.

Alex gets him for $21 – same a Zambrano.  Interesting.

Drew: “Prince Fielder”

Ah, Prince.  So good to me for three seasons at $10.  Probably no chance of getting him, though I do throw down a “$21″ as the bidding rushes past me. Curiously, the bidding stalls in the high-20’s.  Granted, only three first basemen were needed (plus nine corners), but come on!

Tom gets Fielder for a bargain price of $29

Stan: “Jake Peavy”

Here’s the last of the top starters, before the first drop-off.  Sure Peavy plays for a team that won’t win many games, and there’s a strong possibility that he’ll end up traded out of PETCO Park, but with his K’s he could still offer a stud-like season.

Peavy ends up going for $30 – to Stan – the second self-bid winner of the day, both ace starters, both by Stan.

The rest of the second round goes as follows:

Barry: “Francisco Rodriguez” - who cares? I have three closers.  He goes to Steve for $25.

Mark: “Matt Kemp” – I’m out already.  I was a bit surprised that he was so hyped this offseason by most publications.  I think he’s a Shane Victorino-type more than a Soriano type, and I’m not buying. He goes to Paul for $32.

Steve: “Chad Billingsley” – The best bet of the second tier of starters. He’s decent, young, but broke his leg in November, and might experience a bit of a setback.  I not really wild about him.  Of course he goes to Tim for $27 (I’d rather have Hamels at $25) where he’ll join other youngsters Yovanni Gallardo, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer

Tom: “Adrian Gonzalez” - His value would be much greater anywhere other than San Diego, where he may set a team record for intentional walks.  Alex gets him for a reasonable $25.

Tim: “Stephen Drew” - Again Tim nominates the best remaining shortstop – because that’s what you do when you already have Hanley Ramirez for $50.  Again, I can’t bid on middle infielders, and in a surprise, he goes to Drew for $24, slotted at DH.  Drew now has only $56 remaining, and still has yet to acquire a pitcher.  Interesting.

The second round lasted 23 minutes.

Round Three – 2:07pm

Andrew: “Derrek Lee” – A poor choice for a nomination, but I guess I was hoping to clear out the rest of the first base starters.  Tom ends up getting him for $23, but he was disappointed (only $2 less than Adrian Gonzalez), plus that pick clogs his DH spot.  He wasn’t happy with that one.  Maybe it was a good nomination after all.

Alex: “Jonathan Broxton” – Decent nomination for the young-stud closer fans.  Relievers haven’t really been brought up yet, so maybe the trend is starting.  Steve gets him for $25, netting both closers nominated thus far for $50.  I guess he’s happy with his starters.

Paul: “Khalil Greene” – Probably a low-ball nomination to squeak one by.  He’s undervalued after his bad season in San Diego, but might do well in St. Louis. Stan gets him for $8 – our first single-digit player.

Drew: “Adam Dunn”

Just like in the movie “Hot Fuzz” a light bulb illuminates over my head, and I say “Idea!”  Dunn is eligible at both first and outfield, so why don’t I focus on versatility, and try to nab Dunn as a first baseman.  He’s much better than the next-best first baseman available, and there’s only a few players that can match his 40-homer power potential in the draft (Fielder, maybe Soriano).  Additionally, if I end up getting a decent 1B later on, I can move him to outfield.

I get him for $19, which I think is reasonable, but several think that’s a bit high.  At least I have Chipper Jones to counteract his batting average.

So that’s $19 down, which leaves me with $64 for eight players, but I can at least shuffle the CM, 1B and an OF spot around if necessary.

Stan: “Matt Cain” – Hard-luck starter that I have ranked near the bottom of the third tier – lower than others.  He just hasn’t turned his potential into his performance.  Tom gets him for $24, only a dollar less than Cole Hamels.  Hmm.

Barry: “Chris Young – Pitcher” – Injury-prone, and not terribly effective outside of PETCO, Alex nabs him for $16, which is quite reasonable.  A lot more than Matt Cain for $24.

Mark: “Chris Young – Outfielder” - Self-nomination. Mark ends up getting Young for $21.  Decent price for a third-tier outfielder – right about where I thought he would be.

Steve: “Dan Uggla” - There he is.  Actually he’s not that bad, though his fielding is awful, we’re at best, ambivalent.  Mark grabs him as well for $19.

Tom: “Rickie Weeks” – Another self-nomination.  Tom gets him for $14, which is probably reasonable.  His infield is complete (along with DH).

Tim: “Edwin Encarnacion” – I’ve always been high on EE, especially since I originally signed him as a minor leaguer (then traded him away).  Mark grabs him as well, for $16.

That round lasted a surprising 34 minutes, our longest round.  After three rounds, it’s time for a money check:

• Andrew: $64 for 8 players
• Alex: $71 for 11 players
• Paul: $72 for 12 players
• Drew: $56 for 15 players (and all 10 pitchers)
• Stan: $54 for 11 players
• Barry: $114 for 15 players
• Mark: $107 for 10 players
• Steve: $59 for 7 players
• Tom: $64 for 8 players
• Tim: $87 for 9 players

Round Four – 2:41 pm

(I didn’t get any players in the fourth round, so I’ll provide abbreviated comments)

• Andrew: “Brett Myers” – Had I stuck to my plan, this is one of the guys I would have targeted.   Still has big potential, and this is his “walk year’ (contract status, not pitching technique).  Tom gets him for $16.  I think that’s a bargain. I was the guy that said “$13″ and “$15″, and after the fact, Tom said he would have said $18, so oh well.
• Alex: “Trevor Hoffman” - Not really interested, plus he’ll be on the DL to start the season.  Alex gets him for $11 – he seems surprised it’s so low.
• Paul: “Pablo Sandoval” - Another favorite of mine, Stan gets him at $14, and plugs him in a catcher.  That’s one way to beat the positional scarcity issue.
• Drew: “Casey Blake” – Barry finally steps up and grabs his second player of the day.  And a decent value as well – a .270/20/80 guy on the Dodgers could have gone for $10.
• Stan: “Aaron Harang” – Another risk/reward pick – he was very good, but he might be broken. I’m in on the bidding up until “$9″ – can’t go any higher.  He goes to Mark for $11.
• Barry: “Javier Vazquez” - This was the other guy to target.  I had him ranked as the seventh-best starter, right behind Billingsley and Harden.  But I have no money (as evidenced by my Myers and Harange losses earlier this round.  Tim gets him for $19.  Gee, Myers and Vazquez for a combined $35.  Sure sounds like my starting pitcher strategy prior to blowing it on Webb.  Dammit.
• Mark: “Francisco Cordero” - Another closer, though this time Steve is finished.  Hersh gets him for a reasonable $16.  Are the days of $40 closers behind us?  Or even $30 closers?
• Steve: “Matt Capps” - Comfortable with his two closers, Steve nominates another.  Tom wins some surprising sprited bidding at $19.  I guess Qualls, Street, and Hanrahan are the only full-time closers left, thus the rush on Capps at the end.
• Tom: “Shane Victorino” - Ah, the Flyin’ Hawaiian.  I hope someone gives him a good home, as he’ll be missed here in Roadrunner land.  I actually was able to bid $22 and $24 before I pulled out.  Steve got him for $30.
• Tim: “John Maine” – Another long-time Roadrunner.  Maine is still not quite right after offseason surgery, and his spring has cooled me off a bit.  He goes to Alex for $8.

Round Four lasted 25 minutes.

Round Five – 3:06pm

Here’s where it all goes downhill . . .

Andrew: “Raul Ibanez”

I actually wanted Ibanez – I had him and Brad Hawpe as listed as pretty even, with Ibanez providing more RBI, and Hawpe more home runs.  Bidding got up to $17 and then it was just Barry and me.  Now the thing with this is that everyone else thinks there’s some sort of higher-level gamesmanship happening whenever Barry and I are in a bidding war.

So of course, Tom mentions, “Ooh, the boys from Phoenix battling it out!”

Please, it’s really not like that.  I don’t think.  Is it?

Several years ago, Barry and I got into a bidding war which ended up with a “good-natured fuck you” battle.  Example:

Barry: $18

Andrew: Fuck you, $19

Barry: Fuck you, $20

Andrew: No, fuck you, $21

Barry: I believe I said, fuck you, $22

etc.

So you can see how this got started.  The problem is that Barry and I both need three outfielders, and the resources are drying up.  Other than Ibanez, the only guys left at his level or above are Corey Hart, Brad Hawpe, and Andre Ethier.  And I’m not a fan of Hart or Ethier, even though I had Hart for the past two seasons, and Ethier is from Chandler – I just don’t believe the hype for a guy who will hit .290 and maybe 20 homers.  And Hart killed me at the end of last season, with his .176 average in August and September.

Andrew: $18

Barry: $19

Andrew: $20

Barry: $21

Andrew: $22

Paul: Who is this schmoe these guys are fighting over?

Barry: $23

Andrew (internal): Ok, that’s the limit you had him pegged for.

Andrew: $24

Barry: $25

Andrew (internal): Screw it, now just get Hawpe.

Barry gets him for $25.

So there were some glances between the two of us, but I thought it was over.

Alex: “Andre Ethier” – Right back at it.  I got bids in for $15, but I wasn’t that interested, and Ethier goes to Mark for $24

Paul: “Joel Hanrahan” – I actually like Hanrahan, but I don’t need a closer.  He goes to Paul for $14.

Drew: “Lastings Milledge” - Drew’s Nationals fetish is almost more blatant than Stan’s Pirate fetish of the early 90’s.  I actually would like Milledge, but I know I need power, and a more consistent batting average, so I think I get in a bid at $14, and then let him go.  Stan gets him for $22, which is just about right.

Stan: “Chad Qualls” – Another closer, and Tim gets him for $12, which is a decent price.  Boy, the closer market isn’t what it once was.  Everyone’s probably realized that saves can be picked up mid-season.  After all, my three closers were all FAAB pickups, and two of them (Wilson and Lindstrom) had been released by the teams that drafted them.

Barry: “Bronson Arroyo” - Blech.  He might be done.  I’m not even considering Arroyo, though I do need a cheap starter.  To show you the super demand for him, Arroyo goes to Mark for $4 – the second single-digit player.

Mark: “Brad Hawpe”

Okay, now we’re talking.  I hold out of bidding until it gets into the late teens, and I jump in with a $19.

It goes around the room again, and Barry bids $22

Andrew: $23

Barry: $24

Stan: Jeez, fellas, here we go again.

Andrew: $25

Andrew (internal): Come on, I need this guy!

Barry: $26

Andrew (internal): Crap!  What’s his problem?  Why are we bidding against each other this time?

Andrew: $27

Barry: $28

Andrew (internal): Bastard!  I let you have Raul Ibanez you son-of-a-bitch!  There’s no one left!  Must . . . get . . .Hawpe!

Andrew: $29 (hangs head)

Well the reaction of the room was unanimous.  Barry “wins” the battle by running me up to $29 on Brad Fucking Hawpe.  The room spins a bit, and I really can’t believe I just blew that big a wad of cash.  Sure Corey Hart was still available, but that was about it, and I still need two more outfielders.

Feeling severely burned, I chalk up Hawpe on my roster.  That leaves me with $35 for 7 players.  I had $64 remaining, and I spent 45% of it on Brad Freaking Hawpe.  He’d better break out and hit 30 homers and bat .290.  Probably not going to happen.

Steve: “Conor Jackson”

A ha!  Here’s someone I can grab – just like Dunn, he’s versatile, and eligible at 1B and OF.  I could put him at corner and still get two outfielders.  He’s all batting average, but hopefully he’ll improve his power.  Maybe he was just tired in the second half last season when he went all of August and September without a home run.  He’s still a good antidote to Adam Dunn, batting average-wise.

Other than Hart, whom I didn’t want to deal with, CoJack was the best-available outfielder, with Milton Bradley, Mike Cameron, Eric Byrnes and Jeremy Hermida next on the list.  Bidding slowed down, and the first “Going once” didn’t generate any additional bids.

I get him for $16, and put him at outfielder for now.

Tom said “Nice job, jumping back in there and shaking Hawpe off.”

Cool.

So that leaves me with $19 for 6 players.  That’s do-able.

Tom: “Corey Hart” - This seems like the other one Barry was waiting for, as he still had plenty of money.  I believe Tim and Barry were bidding against each other, with Hart getting $28. Is Hawpe worth a buck more than Hart?  Probably not.  But the bottom line is that after today, the money means nothing until protected list time, and I needed the guy.

Yep, keep telling yourself that.

Tim: “Tommy Hanson”

Here he is!  The guy I’ve been waiting for.  Tim brought him out WAY too early here.  I had figured I could get him for $3, but was willing to go $5 on him.

I bid $3

Paul bids $4

I bid $5

Drew bids $6

What the hell?

So of course, like all young studs brought out too soon (Kershaw, Lincecum) he ends up going for $10.  To Drew – his first pitcher!  Congrats, Drew – your only pitcher won’t be up in the majors until July at the earliest!

That round lasted 31 minutes. After five rounds, it’s time for a money check:

• Andrew: $19 for 6 players
• Alex: $52 for 9 players
• Paul: $42 for 10 players
• Drew: $46 for 14 players (including 9 pitchers)
• Stan: $18 for 9 players
• Barry: $56 for 12 players
• Mark: $68 for 7 players
• Steve: $29 for 6 players
• Tom: $29 for 6 players
• Tim: $56 for 7 players

[Return to Part One - Strategy, or Part Two - The First Round, or continue to Part Four - A Fistful of Dollar Players]

[click to read Part One - Strategy]

Ok, so now we’re LIVE in Vegas, at the famous Rio Hotel, Casino and Resort. There are six of us here in Room 649 of the Ipanema tower, overlooking the Rio swimming pool. It’s creeping towards 1:00pm local time, and there’s college basketball on the television (muted, of course). Around the room we have yours truly, the Commish, Andrew Flynn, seated at the cafe table/desk, facing north, my right side adjacent to the window. I’m the one with internet access, thanks to the lack of wireless in the room. (really, in this day and age?) Opposite me, “manning” the speakerphone, is Stan Sharik, of the fifth-place Stanimals.

On the couch across from me is Alex Tava, of X-Men on the left, and Tim Nygard, of Misogynistic Padres, on the right. Barry Stahl of The Pi Train occupies the lounge chair in the corner (I have to peer around my laptop screen to see him), and on the bench at the foot of the bed is Tom Ross, of Get Off Kong!

On the phone we have Paul Hershberg, of Shoeless Jews, calling in from home in Louisville, Kentucky. Also dialed in is Steve Sharik (“Cover Zero”) and Mark Ratajczak (newly re-named “Pirate Smokers”), both calling in from their respective homes in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

There’s a few minute delay as Drew Capece, of Goodfellas, of Bowie, Maryland, is having trouble getting on the conference call. Everyone hangs up so Tim can dial in as the host. After a few moments, we’re all online.

The Introduction

As commissioner, I had to give a bit of a preamble to the league – here are the bullet points:

This is our 18th Season since starting from scratch in the 1992 Draft, in my tiny apartment on Madison, watching Christian Laettner make a last-second bucket over Kentucky. First, some announcements:

• Phone numbers for contacting league members have been posted to the board and emailed, in case someone gets disconnected.
• I’ll try to have the rosters inputted into the system sometime later tonight or tomorrow morning.  Several of you have yet to access the system – an email was sent out – please let me know if you need that info again.
• Also keep in mind that we have a new statistics site – OnRoto.com.  Thanks to Mark, who set us up for free.  Plus I think we’re all familiar with the site and the way it works.
• First NL game is Sunday night, April 5th (Atlanta at Philadelphia, 8pm Eastern). Roster moves are due prior to that game for Day 1 and Day 2 (Monday April 6th), which has a full slate of games.
• FAAB is active for Week 1.  FAAB deadline is Midnight Eastern, Monday night, April 6th.  Teams then have 12 hours to make any necessary moves for the Noon Eastern transaction deadline on Tuesday April 7th.
• Lastly, league fees.  Fees should be sent to me before opening day.  Standard $260, plus whatever the portion of the conference call is for those not in attendance in Las Vegas.  I’ll post the address that you can use, or you can send money using a credit card via PayPal, though that requires around a $10 surcharge.

Reminders:

• Nomination order will be in the order of finish from 2008, so it will start with the Atomic Roadrunners and end with Tim
• Starting after round three, we’ll have a money check after every odd round
• Players are allowed two official “hold ups” – if they exceed that the auction will continue
• For those on the phone, please identify yourself when possible while bidding to help reduce confusion.
• We’ll have a 10-minute break between the Major League and Minor League portions of the draft
• Minor League Draft will start with Tim and work up last season’s order of finish until it gets to Atomic Roadrunners, who will have the last selection of each round
• We’ll try to keep the minor league draft moving along – last season we averaged just over 30 seconds per pick, and prior to most picks the “on deck, in the hole” teams will be announced.

With that, we were ready to begin.

Follow the Money

First off, some teams were coming into the draft with a comfortable amount of protections, and some had the bare minimum.  Additionally, several teams had loads of cash to spend, while others would be on a budget straightaway.  Here’s the breakdown:

• Atomic Roadrunners: $98 spent / $162 available for 11 players
• X-Men: $127 spent / $133 available for 14 players
• Shoeless Jews: $117 spent / $143 available for 14 players
• Goodfellas: $112 spent / $148 available for 18 players
• Stanimals: $126 spent / $134 available for 14 players
• The Pi Train: $125 spent / $135 available for 16 players
• Pirate Smokers: $75 spent / $185 available for 14 players
• Cover Zero: $117 spent / $143 available for 10 players
• Get Off Kong!: $106 spent / $154 available for 12 players
• Misogynistic Padres: $75 spent / $185 available for 12 players

The above list is in the order of the 2008 final standings, which will also be the order of nominations for the auction.  I thought I was in pretty good shape, thus the ambitious shopping list.  Pirate Smokers and Misogynistic Padres both had the most money available, and Cover Zero and my Roadrunners also were high up in the dollars per player rankings.

Tim’s team and mine were similar in terms of needs, with Steve and Tom’s teams also being similarly constructed.  We all needed outfielders, Tim needed a few more infielders, but I had them all beat in terms of closers.  Drew’s Goodfellas would provide the most interesting case study, as he had to acquire a full slate of 10 pitchers – no one remembers that ever happening before.

So I guess we’re ready . . .

First Round – 1:15 pm

Andrew: “With the first nomination of the 2009 WBRL draft, I nominate Hanley Ramirez, for $20.”

Crickets.

I wish.

The bidding zoomed right into the high $30’s before it even went dollar-by-dollar.  I got in a bid at $42, which was theoretically my limit, and yet still got another bid of $45 in before I packed it in.  To no one’s surprise, Tim Nygard, purveyor of the “Stars and Scrubs” strategy in so many previous drafts, walked away with Hanley Ramirez at $50.

Fifty.

Crap.

My strategy was falling apart after one player.  I quickly did some mental inflation, and added a bit to the top-tier talent, but only the studs, as values tend to “normalize” pretty quickly after that, historically in our league.  So Johan was back at $38, Webb, Peavy, and Hamels were all $32-$35, Reyes was probably now $42, and Utley was going back to mid-$30’s.  Additionally, the top OF’s (Soriano, Manny, Kemp, Victorino) will likely be $30 or more, along with Prince Fielder.

After some shuffling, I noticed that some of the folks were a bit frazzled by that purchase, or maybe they were adjusting their projections as well.  The last player drafted over $50 was Barry Bonds in 1999, for $53.  Coincidentally, he was also drafted by Tim, who also picked up a $44 Larry Walker, a $44 Kevin Brown, and a $40 Billy Wagner that draft. Next highest guy was $16 Mark Grace – Stars and Scrubs, indeed.

Alex: “Brandon Webb”

Slightly interesting, as Reyes or Johan traditionally would have been the second nomination, but no matter.  Bidding was pretty active, and I managed to say “$25″ as the bidding went dollar-by-dollar at that point.  It seemed to have good momentum when Alex said “$30″, and since I had Webb pegged around $35, I felt no fear of saying “$31″, even though I wasn’t going to get him, as my strategy was to get two lesser pitchers.

Wait.  Why’s everyone looking at me?

Stan, who wasn’t bidding, took over the “Going once, going twice” countdown, a little too early for my taste.

As a sidebar, I think there is a bit of an art in stretching out the dollar values of players.  Saying “Going once” too early will diminish the liklihood of additional bids. Even worse, saying “Going twice”  too quickly after “Going once” will effectively kill any momentum.  So when I’m auctioneer, I tend to say (often) “We have Player X . . . at $17. . . to Hersh . . .Player X . . .” which usually brings out an $18.  Additionally, a “Going once” will bring out the next bid when it gets down to the dollar increments, especially between two bidders. So as I was saying . . .

Stan said “Going twice” and I gave him a panicked look.  I can’t ask the auctioneer to stretch out the timing on someone I’m bidding on, so I quickly scanned the room, and there were no contemplative looks from anyone indicating that a “$32″ was forthcoming.  “Sold!”

Crap, crap, crap.

Okay, I suddenly blew past “acceptance” in my five stages of drafting grief (along with denial and bargaining).  I hovered momentarily at anger, but switched back to stage four – depression.  I just trashed my draft strategy with my first selection.  I didn’t mind getting Webb – I’ve had him the past three seasons (with one Cy Young and two second-place finishes), and $31 is a decent price, but damn, I’m screwed.

What’s worse, half the people in the room looked at me like they knew that would happen, like I was an easy Brandon Webb “mark”.

Worse yet – maybe they were right, and I was living in denial.

Am I that easy to read?  No poker face whatsoever.

Okay then, chalk it up – $31 for Brandon Webb.  My pitching situation is screwed, but hopefully I can recover on the hitting side.  There isn’t really a need to adjust the hitting totals to accomodate for the pitching.  Now instead of two No. 2’s, I’ll just have to get a No. 3.  So I was going to spend $39 on two pitchers – that leaves me $8 for my second guy.

I think we’ll be okay.  I hope so – there are 120 more picks to go, and after five minutes, I’m already in shambles.

Paul: “Chase Utley”

What the hell?  This is infuriating!  Utley was my backup plan for not getting Hanley or Reyes – you can’t nominate him now!

I think I managed to say “$22″ or something, but it was all a bit of a blur, as I was still reeling from the Webb selection.  My whole value system had been rocked again – Hanley should have gone for $45 – he went for $50.  Webb should have gone for $35 – he went for $31.  What was going on?

I’m scrambling, frantically jumping between spreadsheets to record Webb, run some different scenarios, cross Utley off the position list . .  . where’s the bidding?

I can’t stomach bidding on Utley.  I don’t have a strong connection, and I guess I hope he’s injured well into the season (he won’t be), because I really don’t have the enthusiasm to bid, though I really should.

Drew ends up getting him for $36, putting him at middle infield.

Drew: “Garrett Atkins”

And hey, it’s happened.  The proverbial, “You win a player, then it’s your nomination” phenomenon.  Paul ran the numbers – it happens once every 15 or so picks, just about at random.  Oh well.

Another thing is that Drew always seems to nominate “underwhelming” players with his first-round nominations, but of course I can’t substantiate that at all.  It seems that there was someone he nominated fourth or so overall that ended up going for $4 or $5, and then we went back to the studs.  Odd.

Drew drafted Atkins last season, and could have protected him for $30.  Good thing he didn’t, as Atkins has been on a bit of a decline for a while now.

I’m starting to recover from Webb-shock and Utley-upset.  Good thing, too, that I have no interest in Atkins.

Tim gets him for $21.  That’s two of the first four to Tim, and he’s spent $71.  He still has $114.

Stan: “Cole Hamels”

Well, that’s better.  A fellow ace stud, fresh off his widely-televised World Series heroics.  Our league tends to over-value the younger studs, and he’s got potential written all over him.  Since I’m sure to be out of the bidding, I get in a “$20″ just to try to head-fake anyone that’s sure I’m spent on pitching.

After a “$22″, Stan offers a flat “$25″.

Crickets.  For real.

Now I’m a bit miffed.  Hamels should definitely be going for low $30’s, and even if his arm is a bit wobbly, he’s at a minimum the fourth-best starter available in the draft.

Stan gets him for $25.  Shocker.  He looks a little uneasy – I know that look, as I showed it a few picks ago.  Huh.

Curiously, Hamels may be in line for a Webb-like WBRL salary.  Owned as a rookie and protected at $10 for three seasons (just like Webb), his first real auction he goes for $25 (just like Webb).  So I guess in 2012, Hamels will go to Stan for $31, and he’ll be pissed too.

Barry: “Jose Reyes”

Bastard.

Now I’m screwed.  I don’t know if Barry knows my plan or not.  I discussed it obliquely when discussing potential highest-priced players, and who my first nomination would be (Hanley, Reyes, or Johan).  Since I’m defending champ, I’ve known about this first-nomination responsibility since October.  Barry originally owned Reyes as a rookie for $10, and in 2006, he and I ran up the bidding from $31 to $38, which is where I eventually won him.

But fortunately several people are in on the bidding, and it jumps around quickly – almost too quickly – to $40.

Here comes the real conversation between my big fat mouth and my rationale.  See if you can tell who wins.

Andrew’s mouth: “$40″

Rationale: “Okay, good, we can probably go up to $44 without too much damage, but let’s check those Dan Uggla stats while we’re at it.  Maybe Rafael Furcal?”

Others: “$41″, “$42″, “$43″

Andrew’s mouth: “$44″

Rationale: “Good, I think we’re done, here.”

Other: “$45″

Rationale: “Okay, tough break, we’ll let him go . . .”

Andrew’s mouth: “$46″

Rationale: “Um, what are you doing?  Are you crazy?  This ends now!”

Other: “$47″

Rationale: “WALK AWAY! Do not say another . . . ”

Andrew’s mouth: “$48″

Rationale: “WHATTHEHELLAREYOUDOINGAREYOUMAD????”

Stan: “Sold!”

Rationale: “OHMYFUCKINGGOD!  WE’RE BROKE! We have no money for this. Why didn’t you listen? Furcal! Drew! Uggla!  All reasonable!”

Andrew’s mouth: “(sigh) . . . take that!“

Well, there you have it.  My second player.  Following my dream plan.  Didn’t get Hanley, but for only $2 less, I probably don’t have to worry about steals.

I’ve spent $79.  On two players.  That’s 49 percent of my available money.  On two players.  Both of whom were on the squad from 2006-2008.

“I’m getting the band back together.”

What can I say.  The plan is shot to hell, but at least I’ll have “my guys.”

However, I don’t think I’ll be able to afford Shane Victorino, Prince Fielder, or Corey Hart for the family reunion.

Mark: “Manny Ramirez”

Though I should be in on this biding as well, since I need power, and not speedy outfielders so much any more, I once again need to re-group, though it happens more quickly this time.

Bottom line is that I spent $10 more than I projected, and a good $20 more than reasonable on that DH slot, so now it has to come from somewhere.  Alright, so I’ll skip the $30 outfielder and make it two $23 outfielders.  That’s okay – since speed is accounted for with Reyes, the non-speedy outfielders might be more affordable. That’s a $7 savings.  I can’t take anymore from pitching, so perhaps the second OF can be $20 instead of $23.  Okay, sounds like a plan.

Drew gets Manny Ramirez at $32.

That’s seven players, and Tim, Drew and I have six of them.

Steve: “Russell Martin”

Interesting.  Sure, he’ll draw more cash than any other catcher by a good $10, but I’m not sure a catcher run is going to happen at this point.  At the least it reminds me that the catching position is ridiculously thin, so I need to keep track.  I get in a bid at “$12″, apparently because I’m insane, but it’s quickly passed.

Mark ends up getting him for $22, which is probably appropriate.

Tom: “Alfonso Soriano”

Another guy that was on my list, but is now unreachable.  After all, I have $83 for nine players.  The more I look at the situation, the more bummed I am that I won’t be able to be in the bidding on these guys, because it would be gross negligence to go after another.  (Reyes was merely “indulgence” not “negligence”).

Steve gets Soriano for $34

Tim: “Rafael Furcal”

Sure, rub it in my face.  He’ll probably go for mid-$20’s and do very well.  Though he is an injury risk.  I can’t even bid, since my DH spot is filled.  So ho-hum, I’ll sit out the rest of the first round while these guys bid on Furcal, and plan my next nomination.

Stan gets Furcal for $25.  Bingo, on the mark.

First Round Recap:

• Roadrunners: $79 spent – Webb $31, Reyes $48
• Misogynistic Padres: $71 spent – H. Ramirez $50, Atkins $21
• Goodfellas: $68 spent – Utley $36, M. Ramirez $32
• Stanimals: $50 spent – Hamels $25, Furcal $25
• Cover Zero: $34 spent – Alfonso Soriano
• Pirate Smokers: $22 spent – Russell Martin

X-Men, Shoeless Jews, Pi Train, Get Off Kong! not yet on the board.  The first round takes exactly 30 minutes.  It’s sure to pick up the pace in the next few rounds.

[return to Part One - Strategy, or continue to Part Three - Slowly Sinking]

Live from fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada – it’s the 2009 WBRL Draft diary.  Now, I’m not a superhuman who can write while assembling a (poorly constructed) team, so I’m doing this a day after the draft, with notes on how it all went . . . south.

Offseason Prep

I really had a difficult time this offseason coming up with a plausable strategy for the draft.  Last season’s draft seemed pretty simple, based on my protections: Get an awesome first baseman (to surprise folks, as I already had Prince Fielder), maybe the fourth or fifth-best outfielder, and then an ace starting pitcher to accompany the returning Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum.  Well, I ended up with Teixeira, who was merely “average” for his $36, a disappointing Andruw Jones for $23, and a $16 Brett Myers, that I managed to pay $31 for.  However, I still won, based on the strengths of the protected list, which locked in Prince Fielder ($10), Corey Hart ($7), Shane Victorino ($1), Jose Reyes ($38), as well as Chipper, Brandon Phillips, and Ryan Theriot – the three of which are returning for 2009.

My protected list for 2009 wasn’t as impressive, as I didn’t make any trades for the future in 2008 while securing the title, but I still had plenty of value.  The aforementioned trio, plus Chris Iannetta ($1), Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum ($7) and FAAB pickup Josh Johnson ($5) had me looking quite solid.  I also really didn’t have to worry about saves too much, with Brian Wilson ($10), Matt Lindstrom ($10) and Mike Gonzalez ($5) giving me three mid-range starting closers, and Wilson surprised all last season with 41 saves – second in the National League.

The other protectees are SP Todd Wellemeyer ($5), Padres OF’s Chase Headley and Jody Gerut (both $5), and Dodgers 2B Blake DeWitt ($5)

I had $98 of salaries protected, with $162 available for eleven players.  Here were the needs:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Corner
• 3 Outfielders
• Designated Hitter
• 4 Pitchers

It’s the Economy, Stupid

For 2009, the initial goal was to lock up another ace (I was even aiming for Johan Santana after a “disappointing” 2008) who would notch wins with a vastly improved Mets bullpen, get a few value starters, secure a good starting catcher (since the ranks were so thin), cherry pick several of the top outfielders, and then get value at the corners.  Those plans fell by the wayside thanks to the tanking economy.  Yes, that’s right, the economy.

You see, many of the free agents this offseason had trouble finding the pricey multi-year deals that had been envisioned, so the Dodgers decided that they really couldn’t turn down one year of gold-glove Orlando Hudson for a paltry $5 million.  Of course, that knocks my middle infielder, Blake DeWitt, originally a good $5 value pick, into a starting job in Albuquerque (that’s AAA, folks).  So now I needed to get another starting middle infielder.  Why not make a splash and get Hanley Ramirez?

So now my models were shaping up.  Allowing for max dollar amounts at certain positions (but not all the way), I thought I could do the following:

• Catcher: $5 (Pudge)
• First: $35 (Prince)
• OF1: $30 (Victorino)
• DH/MI: $42 (Hanley)
• SP1: $35 (Johan / Webb)
• SP4: $3 (Hanson)

I also had a predilection towards Tommy Hanson of the Braves – that’s Starting Picther 4, listed above.  I had him in the minors last season for a week after his no-hitter, thinking he’d be my next Lincecum, but then released him after Baseball America said he wasn’t that great.  (Note: I now no longer read BA, except for minor league transactions in the offseason.) Along with picking up Pablo Sandoval a week after the deadline, there were two great protection opportunities missed in 2008.

Reminder to self: I won the title!

Okay, back to the first model.  The mathematicians among you may notice that those above salaries add up to $150, meaning that I’d have to spend my remaining $12 on two starters, two outfielders, and a corner man.  While I think I’m above average in constructing draft lists, I’m not as strong in making all of my $1 picks pan out.  Plus I definitely need more – more offense, and more innings pitched by decent starters.

The next round of modeling had me cut some corners – literally.  Gone was the hope of re-signing Prince Fielder, or even Adrian Gonzalez – the two top-tier 1B’s available.  Plus, I trimmed further back, realizing that I wouldn’t be able to get Pablo Sandoval again – not for $3 – so maybe I should target a prospect like the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez or the Cardinals’ Brett Wallace.  So here’s the next model:

• Catcher: $5 (Pudge)
• First: $15 (Helton / Kotchman)
• CM: $3 (Alvarez / Wallace)
• OF1: $30 (Victorino)
• DH/MI: $42 (Hanley)
• SP1: $35 (Johan / Webb)
• SP4: $3 (Hanson)

Now then, that fills up the dance card a bit, and the price is reduced to $133, leaving me with $29 for two top outfielders and two decent starting pitchers.  Yikes.

“Statistical Modeling”

This season, I actually managed to take my composite projections, both for the available players and for my returning guys, and try to get as close to the statistical totals for the WBRL second-place team (averaged over the past 10 seasons).  I figured that trying to achieve second place in both hitting and pitching would probably result in a top finish, and after all, I’d have six months to make adjustments via FAAB and trades.

Going through the archives, I determined that I should attempt to get as close to the following stats:

• Offense:
  • Average: .280
  • Runs: 1075
  • Home Runs: 260
  • RBI: 1000
  • Steals: 170
• Pitching:
  • Wins: 95
  • ERA: 3.90
  • WHIP 1.23
  • Strikeouts: 1250
  • Saves: 95

So now I knew what to shoot for.  Pasting in various projections for the empty slots was an interesting exercise, and the biggest shift in strategy it dictates was that two very good pitchers are better than one super-ace.  So, instead of $35 on a top-3 starter like Johan Santana or Brandon Webb (or even Jake Peavy), it would be better to get two starters that were ranked in the top fifteen, for about the same price. This would effectively “double” (okay, “multiply by 1.75″) potential wins and strikeouts, and would increase the innings pitched without a huge hit on the ERA and WHIP.  So now my targets were the likes of Javier Vazquez, Aaron Harang, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, or even Matt Cain (whom I dislike).  Now let’s check out the models:

• Catcher: $5 (Pudge)
• First: $15 (Helton / Kotchman)
• CM: $3 (Alvarez / Wallace)
• OF1: $30 (Victorino)
• DH/MI: $42 (Hanley)
• SP1: $22 (Vazquez)
• SP2: $17 (Harang)
• SP4: $3 (Hanson)

That adds up to $137, leaving $25 for two outfielders and one starter.  I can find a good $1-2 outfielder in the end game, and the same with an extra pitcher, who now didn’t have to be a starter, but potentially a value reliever such as J.J. Putz or Cory Wade, or someone to fill in for injured closers, like Seth McClung or Leo Nunez.  So now, things were really shaping up:

• Catcher: $5 (Pudge)
• First: $15 (Helton / Kotchman)
• CM: $3 (Alvarez / Wallace)
• OF1: $30 (Victorino)
• OF2: $23 (Ibanez / Hawpe/ Milledge)
• OF3: $1 (end game)
• DH/MI: $42 (Hanley)
• SP1: $22 (Vazquez)
• SP2: $17 (Harang)
• SP3: $3 (Hanson)
• P4: $1 (Putz / Nunez / Wade)

That looks pretty solid – a definite winner.

Let’s Throw in Some Variables

Of course, there are some variables thrown in there.  This is assuming I can get all of these guys for these prices, and the pricing for Hanley Ramirez might go up to $45, which destroys my model.  The pivotal piece was the top-end DH/MI.  It really came down to who will I get, which would then cascade down through the roster, specifically the outfielders and first base.

• If I get Hanley Ramirez, he’ll go 30/30, so I’ll need Victorino’s 40 steal capability to shore up my totals there, and then I can focus on four-tool OF’s like Hawpe, Ibanez, or even Adam Dunn to deliver the homers and RBI.
• I can always “downgrade” to Jose Reyes.  He should be cheaper, and he’ll double Hanley’s steals, so I wouldn’t need Victorino, but I’ll then need to ensure that I really get power hitters to make up the difference.
• The bad scenario is to go after the injured Chase Utley.  All indications are that he may only miss the first week or two of the season, so he may come at a discount (say $30), where I can chase more steals (re-enter Victorino), and even the likes of Lastings Milledge and Corey Hart.
• The worst-case is that I get shut-out of those three, and then I go after a bargain MI at DH, like a $5-$10 Felipe Lopez (who should rebound), Khalil Greene (who should rebound), ore even a more-expensive Dan Uggla (which wouldn’t really change the Utley scenario, other than to get even more speed and average to offset Uggla’s .250 average.)

Elsewhere on the roster, the catching situation is grim.  10 catchers are needed, and there’s really only four that are “tolerable”, at least to me.  Russell Martin, of course, but he’ll get over $20, and I’ve eliminated those scenarios.  The next best is the Reds’ Ramon Hernandez, who should hit .270 with 15 homers in Cincinnati.  Given how Bengie Molina went last season, I’d guess Hernandez goes for $11-$13, which also doesn’t fit in the budget.

The catching class was bolstered with the late signing of Ivan Rodriguez (“Pudge”) by the Astros.  He and the Marlins’ John Baker are the last two that should deliver decent average with some pop.  After that, it’s Jason Kendall, a few decent backups (Chris Coste, Ramon Castro, Josh Bard), and then sinkholes.  I figure if I can’t get Pudge or Baker, then I switch gears and go after a prospect with $1 – Angel Salome (Brewers) and Buster Posey (Giants) are the choices there.

For pitching, other than those top-twenty starters listed above, I’ve also been tracking several potential bargains.  Those include:

• Chris Volstad, Marlins
• Kenshin Kawakami, Braves
• John Maine, Mets
• Ian Snell, Pirates
• J.A. Happ, Phillies
• Sean Marshall, Cubs
• Madison Bumgarner, Giants

In our league, none of these guys are really sleepers.  It just comes down to if they’re remembered in the end-game after several of the teams have either spent their wad, or have closed out their pitching staffs.  They won’t last into the minors, that’s for sure.  I’m really interested in Kawakami, as so little is known about him, especially with projections, but I’m thinking he’s a control guy with good WHIP, which can always help me.  God forbid I don’t get Tommy Hanson, but the backup plan is that I MUST get Bumgarner then, even though he won’t be up for a while.  Volstad won’t get many K’s, Maine and Snell are rebounding from poor 2008’s, and Happ and Marshall won’t really hurt you, and are angling for fifth starter gigs on winning teams.

Overall, there seems to be a bit of a glut of corner men, especially at first base, and there also seems to be decent depth at outfield.  I should be able to find a decent starter in the end game for a buck or two.

Here it is: The Final Strategy

So, the strategy this season was late in coming, but I think I have it sorted out.  Some of it will depend on the auction, of course, but I’m pretty comfortable with my ranges at positions.  I didn’t really bother with “Tiers” because it’s instictive, and with protections, it’s a little less helpful.  So here goes:

1. Get the high-priced DH / MI guy:  Hanley, Reyes, or Utley, then adjust OF targets accordingly
2. Get the No. 3 or 4 catcher (Pudge or Baker).  This won’t happen second – it’ll wait for several rounds, but there’s really a cliff after this.
3. Get the two No. 2 starters one at a time.  If the first one is pricier, de-value the second one, but get him before we’re down to the garbage starters, obviously.
4. Get the top-seven outfielder that works with Step 1, then adjust the OF’s
5. Fill-in with a decent first baseman
6. Add a upper-middle-class outfielder (again, with the Step 1 and 4 players)
7. Get Tommy Hanson
8. Add a left-over Corner Man (prospect)
9. Get the end-game outfielder
10. Get the final pitcher

We’ll see if this works.

[Continue to Part Two - The First Round]

Protected lists have been submitted, and we’re locked in for the 2009 WBRL Draft.  Here’s who we’re bringing:

• C – Chris Iannetta  (2 / $1)
• 2B – Brandon Phillips  (1 / $16)
• SS – Ryan Theriot  (1 /$1)
• 3B – Chipper Jones  (1 / $23)
• MI – Blake DeWitt  (2 / $5)
• OF – Chase Headley  (2 / $5)
• OF – Jody Gerut  (2 / $5)
• P – Tim Lincecum (1 / $7)
• P – Josh Johnson (2 / $5)
• P – Todd Wellemeyer (2 / $5)
• P – Matt Lindstrom (2 / $10)
• P – Brian Wilson (1 / $10)
• P – Mike Gonzalez (2 / $5)
• 3B – Mat Gamel (3 /$5) (Minors)

Here are the figures:

• Players Protected: 14
• Payroll: $98
• Players Needed: 11
• Available: $162
• Available per Player: $14.73

Also note that the Atomic Roadrunners will have the final selection in the 2nd Round of the Minor League Draft (the 11th pick overall)

This is the final installment of the 2009 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series.  Protected lists are due for submission this Sunday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern.  Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2009:

Chris Coste
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 28 Runs, 0 Steals
Coste was a great pickup with incumbent Carlos Ruiz struggling. Although a heavier workload brought down the average later in the season (when he had been replaced by Pablo Sandoval on the AaRr squad), he did an admirable job. The Phillies also brought in Ronny Paulino from the Pirates, so Coste’s security might be in jeopardy.

Gregor Blanco
2 Years – $5
.251 Average, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 52 Runs, 13 Steals
Blanco was a 7th-round minor league pick, though he really wasn’t much of a prospect. He did pretty well in spring training, and won at-bats from Matt Diaz (injured), Josh Anderson (sent to AAA) and the oft-injured (and then traded) Mark Kotsay. However, other than average (which fell his second time through the NL) and the occasional steal, he didn’t seem to do much, though his totals in the counting stats look decent. With some high-profile OF prospects coming up soon, there isn’t much certainty in Blanco’s world right now.

Brett Myers
2 Years – $31
10-13, 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 163 K’s
Myers was supposed to be my top-tier pitching acquisition, but he had a horrible first half, was sent down to AAA for three weeks, and then came back and pitched like a decent No. 2 starter. He kept up the strikeouts, but also walked more than expected. Apparently he needed a full year to get used to the move back from the bullpen, where the Phillies had him closing for 2007 before the Brad Lidge acquisition. He’ll be a decent starter in 2009, but not for $31 – that’s bollocks.

Jason Marquis
2 Years – $10
11-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 91 K’s
Marquis was a minor league selection as a fill-in starter. He wasn’t very good, and I didn’t activate him very often, but he lasted the year, which is more than many other pitchers can say. He had a bit of a hot streak in July and August, and we rode him for that. He was traded to Colorado, so that can’t possibly be good for his numbers.

Tony Pena
2 Years – $3
3-2, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 52 K’s and 3 saves
Pena was won at auction as a “handcuff” for the then-protected Brandon Lyon. This was after it was announced that Chad Qualls would handle the 7th inning, Pena the eighth, and Lyon the ninth. Pena didn’t do as well as his 2007 numbers, and he never had the chance to close, especially after the Diamondbacks acquired Jon Rauch. While Pena will be a decent set-up man, Qualls is the closer going into 2009.

Noah Lowry
2 Years – $1
– did not pitch –
Lowry was a transaction deadline pickup viewed exclusively for 2009. Injured in spring training, he had two surgeries on his throwing arm, and further complications in October pretty much killed any enthusiasm for protecting him. Plus, I think we’ve seen his peak three years ago, and he never had good stuff, for that matter.