Atomic RoadRunners

Reds manager Dusty Baker responded to Chris Dickerson’s frustration about wanting a chance to start in center field. “He had the job before Stubbs,” said Baker. “He’s in the running, he’s going to play. But you can’t take away what Stubbs did at the end of the year last year. You can be disappointed all you want to, but he allowed Stubbs to get his foot in the door.” Dickerson batted .275/.370/.373 with two home runs, 15 RBI, 11 stolen bases and 31 runs scored while supplying excellent defense — adequate production — but sprained his left ankle last August, affording Drew Stubbs an opportunity in center field. Stubbs responded with eight home runs and 10 stolen bases in just 43 games. He opens spring training as the favorite to be the starting center fielder. (Rotoworld)

Clayton Kershaw is in line to start for the Dodgers on Opening Day. It would be quite an honor for the 21-year-old southpaw. Kershaw was 9-9 with a 2.79 ERA last season and collected 185 strikeouts in 171 innings. He is scheduled pitch the Dodgers’ third spring game. (Rotoworld)

While he is comfortable with a part-time role, Matt Diaz feels that he could be a productive everyday player, as well. “Yeah I would love that,” he said. “I feel like by not playing every day I do miss some slumps, but I also miss some hot streaks in there, too. So I don’t know if I’d be – I guess my career average is right at .310 – I don’t know if I’d .310, but I think I could be productive as a main guy, I really do.” Diaz batted .313/.390/.488 last season, posting career highs with 13 home runs and 58 RBI.  Depending on if the Braves promote top prospect Jason Heyward, he could be in line for a full-time job to start the season. (Rotowire)

Minor League Ball’s John Sickels did a profile on Drew Stubbs, who is “Not a Rookie” by only a few at-bats:

I kept Stubbs as a Grade B- in the 2009 book, writing that “I’d like him to get another 100 games of Triple-A if at all possible, and if he gets rushed to the majors ahead of schedule, he could struggle. At worst he will be a strong fourth outfielder, but if the hitting is there he could be a fine regular center fielder with excellent defense, speed, and enough offense to stay in the lineup.”

Stubbs got those 100 games in Triple-A, hitting .268/.353/.360 for Louisville, with 48 steals in 54 attempts. He drew 51 walks against 104 strikeouts in 411 at-bats, but hit just three homers. Scouting repots clearly indicated that he was shortening his swing to concentrate on contact. But after being promoted to the majors for the stretch run, Stubbs suddenly showed more pop, hitting .267/.323/.439 for the Reds, including eight homers. His BB/K was 15/49 in 180 at-bats, which is about what you’d expect given his Triple-A numbers. He swiped 10 bags in 14 attempts. UZR loved his fielding at 7.6, (UZR/150 was 28.5), which dovetails perfectly with the scouting reports about a terrific glove.

Reds fans want to know: was Stubbs’ power outburst in the majors for real? Given the perils of sample size, it’s hard to say. His batting average, OBP, steals, and defense were exactly in line with expectation. He’s quite strong physically and has shown sparks of power before, but my guess is that we’ll see him regress somewhat in 2010, putting up something like a .260/.330/.400 line.

Some projection results:

Bill James Projection:   .267/.336/.390, 11 homers in 544 at-bats
CHONE Projection:      .251/.328/.380, 10 homers in 474 at-bats
Fangraphs Fan Proj:    .264/.338/.386, 10 homers in 488 at-bats

Those all seem like reasonable extrapolations to me, considering the totality of Stubb’s record. If he was still eligible for the prospect book, I’d still rate him as a Grade B- like last year at a minimum, and could get talked into a Grade B.

Although I’m expecting some power regression this year, in the medium and long runs he could get his SLG up around .450 in good seasons.

Padres general manager Jed Hoyer said Tuesday he expects Mat Latos to throw between 140-50 innings this season, the team’s official site reports. Latos threw 120 innings last season – his rookie campaign – before getting shut down by the Padres, and the expectation is the organization will closely monitor his workload again this season, especially since the Padres aren’t likely contenders in the NL West. Latos isn’t assured a spot in the Padres’ rotation come Opening Day, but he’s certainly one of the favorites to grab a spot. (Rotowire)

Chase Headley is excited about moving back to third base and believes it will help his all-around game this season. Headley has played out of position in left field for the past two years while Kevin Kouzmanoff patrolled third base for the Padres. Kouz moved on this winter, though, opening the door for Headley’s return to the hot corner. “It’s where I feel like I can be the best player,” Headley said Tuesday. “You never want to play a position where you don’t feel like you can do your best. It’s exciting to get a chance to go back.” (Rotoworld)

Clayton Kershaw is hoping to pitch without restrictions this season. “This year I don’t think there should be that 100-pitch thing,” Kershaw said. “If there was a pitch count last year, I think this year there should be no restrictions, no holds barred, I should pitch as long as I can. That’s what I’m hoping for. That’s just what I feel.” Kershaw exceeded 100 pitches in 16 of his 30 starts last season, but the 100-pitch was usually the benchmark for the young left-hander. Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said the Dodgers aren’t completely ready to set him loose, but will “loosen the reins a little bit and slowly increase him.” Kershaw was 9-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 171 innings last season. (Rotowire)

According to manager Bruce Bochy, Todd Wellemeyer and rookie Madison Bumgarner will battle it out to be the team’s fifth starter during spring training. Not a huge surprise. We don’t doubt that the Giants will give the 20-year-old Bumgarner an opportunity in good faith during spring training, but chances are they start him in Triple-A for at least a couple months in order to delay his service time. There’s conflicting opinions on this, so depending on how Wellemeyer fares, talent could outweigh restraint. (Rotoworld)

Manager Bruce Bochy clarified recent reports that top prospect Buster Posey would get some looks as an infielder, telling Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that “he’s a catcher.” Bochy simply wants him to take a few grounders at first base in an effort to keep his legs fresh, effectively downplaying recent whispers that he could even get a look at shortstop. Posey, who turns 23 in March, looks bound for Triple-A Fresno for the early part of the 2010 season with Bengie Molina re-signed as the team’s starting backstop. (Rotoworld)

Minor League Ball’s John Sickels recently did a “Prospect Retro“-spective feature on Josh Johnson:

Josh Johnson was drafted by the Florida Marlins in the fourth round of the 2002 draft, out of high school in Jenks, Oklahoma. Tall and projectable at 6-7, 215, he was erratic in high school, throwing 90-92 MPH at his best, but sometimes working in just the 85-87 range. He also needed to improve his breaking ball and changeup. Considered a first-round talent six months before the draft, his stock dropped due to an erratic spring and a University of Oklahoma scholarship. He signed late and got into just 15 innings in the Gulf Coast League, posting an 11/3 K/BB with a 0.60 ERA. I didn’t put him in the 2003 book, but if I had I would have rated him a Grade C prospect.

The Marlins ignored my advice and Johnson spent all of 2006 in the majors, pitching very well, going 12-7, 3.10 with a 133/68 K/BB in 157 innings, 136 hits allowed, a very successful rookie campaign. However, the injury bug struck in 2007. Although it was the shoulder that bothered him in the minors, in ‘07 his elbow gave out, necessitating Tommy John surgery. He came back extremely quickly in 2008 and went 7-1, 3.61 with a 77/27 K/BB in 87 innings. As you know, last year he went 15-5, 3.23 with a 191/58 K/BB in 209 innings, allowing 184 hits. Last year’s performance was better than anything he’d done in the minors, and it earned him a fat contract this off-season.

Johnson throws harder now: 92-98 last year according to fangraphs, averaging almost 95 MPH. This is about eight MPH harder than he threw in the lower minors, making him a textbook example of a “projectable” pitcher gaining velocity as he matures physically. His slider is his main second pitch; he uses his changeup a bit less than five percent of the time. Fangraphs rates all of his pitches as above average, and he picks up a lot of grounders to go with the strong strikeout rate.

My main concern for Johnson going forward is the possibility that the shoulder problems he had in the minors may recur. If he avoids injury and gets proper support from teammates, Johnson has the ability to be a Cy Young contender in the coming years along with Ubaldo Jimenez. Not bad for a guy who never really dominated in the minors. This is another example of how Grade C pitching prospects at the lower levels can sometimes develop into something very interesting.

The Giants have considered giving catching prospect Buster Posey a look at a variety of infield positions this spring. The Giants still view Posey as their future starting catcher, but he’s blocked this year by Bengie Molina and a little versatility would only help his long-term value. Posey, who turns 23 in late March, batted .325/.416/.531 last season with 18 homers and 80 RBI between Single-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. He’s likely to begin the 2010 season with Fresno. (Rotoworld)

Giants manager Bruce Bochy confirmed Friday that Madison Bumgarner will head into spring training as the team’s No. 5 starter. It might not be the smartest strategy, but it sure is exciting. Bumgarner, who doesn’t turn 21 until early August, had a 1.80 ERA in the 10 innings he pitched for the Giants last year. He spent most of the season at Single-A Connecticut and Double-A San Jose, where he rattled off a combined 12-2 record, 1.85 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 131 1/3 innings. (Rotoworld)

Padres almost-rookie Mat Latos was profiled in MinorLeagueBall.com’s “Not a Rookie” series.  John Sickels had this to say:

Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.

Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he’d be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That’s outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.

His major league statistics weren’t quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that’s just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.

There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he’s a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:   “He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from “he’s just a different guy” to “what a jackass.” His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn’t look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don’t have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I’m not overly concerned about the makeup issue.

I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think “he’s gonna get hurt.” Your mileage may vary.

In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he’d come in under the 50-inning limit, I’d rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher’s list.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams recently recapped the latest rumors on a Prince Fielder extension:

It’s good to be Prince Fielder. At 25 years old, he’s one of the most feared bats in the National League, entering the second year of a two-year, $18MM contract, and according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Anthony Witrado, he’s worry-free when it comes to his next contract.

Fielder addressed several reporters today at Brewers On Deck, a day-long fan festival held in Milwaukee. While it’s no secret that his agent, Scott Boras, aims for every dollar possible for his clients, Fielder says he’s not yet concerned with the situation, and that ultimately, it’s not Boras’ decision:

“In the end, it’s my decision. But as my agent, he’s going to make sure that I have the most information possible about what’s going to benefit me and my family. That’s what it’s about first. My family has to be happy, and then I go from there. There’s no urgency right now as far as that.”

Fielder owns Brewers single-season records in home runs (50 in 2007), walks (110 in 2009), and RBIs (141 in 2009). McCalvy writes that the historical significance of those numbers matters to Fielder. While Boras may be dreaming of the open market with dollar signs in his eyes, if you ask the big man himself, he’s happy where he is and would like to stick around:

“I came up here and I love it here. My thing is I want to stay here as long as possible. For now, I’m here for two more years anyway. All that other stuff, hopefully, will work out.”

Fielder is under team control through the 2011 season, as he’ll be eligible for arbitration one last time after the 2010 season. It’s tough to imagine that the Brewers would want to go through that process, as it could be a record-setting case. For comparison, Mark Teixeira received $12.5MM through his final year of arbitration, a 39% raise from the prior year. That type of raise would put Fielder somewhere around $14.5MM for 2011.

There have been no deadlines set on working out an extension to this point. If he were to reach the open market, Fielder would join a group potentially including Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Howard. Now that’s what I call a free agent class!

This is the final installment of the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series. Protected lists are due for submission this Monday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern. Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2010:

Kyle Blanks
2 Years – $10
.250 Average, 24 Runs, 10 HR, 22 RBI, and 1 steal
Blanks was a top 1B prospect for the Padres, but was moved to the outfield due to the presence of Adrian Gonzalez. To give you a vision, Blanks is like a fatter Frank Thomas in the outfield. He can slug, but he probably should be tethered to first base. He was lost for the season in August with plantar fasciaitis, and just isn’t worth protecting for $10, as he was originally drafted by Misogynistic Padres in the third round of the minor league draft.

Kiko Calero
2 Years – $5
2 Wins, 1.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 69 K’s (in 60 innings)
Still a free agent as of this writing, Calero strung together a good season in the Marlins’ pen, but is not a player anyone should consider protecting. No save chances, just some decent WHIP if you need it.

Nick Masset
2 Years – $5
5 Wins, 2.37 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 76 innings)
Like Calero, Masset is another guy that was picked up for ERA and WHIP assistance. The problem with relievers is you can usually never bank on them repeating their performance from year-to-year. One bad outing will taint the stats for three months. Meanwhile, some other scrub is mowing them down, and thus is worth the FAAB flyer in May. Masset just signed a two-year, $2.58 million extension, and will likely be one of the top Reds set-up guys, but not for $5.

Steve Peace
2 Years – $5
.206 Average, 19 Runs, 4 HR, 16 RBI, and 1 steal
Originally picked up by The Pi Train in 2009, Pearce was a second-hand pickup in August. Pearce’s career is at a crossroads, and may already be over, though the Pirates will keep paying him for another year or two. Pearce had a tremendous season in 2007 in AAA as a 1B/OF, but he couldn’t repeat the magic. Pittsburgh got tired of waiting for him to develop, and now he’s behind Garrett Jones and possibly Jeff Clement at 1B, and also may lose out to Jones, Ryan Church, and Brandon Moss in right field (assuming Milledge and McCutchen occupy left and center, respectively). And he keeps getting worse at the plate. Pass.

Ryan Roberts
2 Years – $5
.279 Average, 41 Runs, 7 HR, 25 RBI, and 7 steals
Picked up after the Roadrunner trade of Brandon Phillips, Roberts pretty much was the starting 2B for the Diamondbacks after the deadline trade of Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and he filled in rather well. At the end of the season, it was thought that Roberts might have a shot as the starting 2B for 2010, but then the D’backs received Tony Abreu from the Dodgers to complete the Jon Garland deal, and then signed a below-market-value Kelly Johnson in January. Now either Roberts or Abreu is the primary middle-infield backup, assuming the D’backs can move Augie Ojeda. Roberts also can play 3B and OF, so he’s a handy guy to have around. Obviously, not worth protecting.

Rusty Ryal
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 11 Runs, 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 0 steals
If Ryan Roberts isn’t worth protecting, what does that mean for Roberts’ backup in Rusty Ryal? Bad news, that’s what. Ryal was called up in August to help out, and to his credit, he filled in at first and second base once it was clear the Diamondbacks were phoning it in. He did hit 17 homers and 70 RBI with a .290 average at AAA Reno, but quite obviously, there’s no protections here.

Delwyn Young
2 Years – $5
.266 Average, 40 Runs, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 2 steals
Young was given every chance to earn the 2B job after the Pirates traded Freddy Sanchez to the Giants at the deadline. The fact that Pittsburgh traded for Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura is an indication of how that experiment went. Pirates GM Neal Huntington has announced that Young will be on the squad in a utility role, as he can play OF corners, 2B, and a passable 1B (though he’d be forth or fifth on that depth chart). Not really protectable material.