Posted on February 3, 2010 by Andrew Flynn
Latos Featured in Sickels’ “Not a Rookie” Series
Padres almost-rookie Mat Latos was profiled in MinorLeagueBall.com’s “Not a Rookie” series. John Sickels had this to say:
Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.
Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he’d be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That’s outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.
His major league statistics weren’t quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that’s just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.
There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he’s a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook: “He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from “he’s just a different guy” to “what a jackass.” His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn’t look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don’t have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I’m not overly concerned about the makeup issue.
I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think “he’s gonna get hurt.” Your mileage may vary.
In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he’d come in under the 50-inning limit, I’d rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher’s list.