Atomic RoadRunners

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said that he won’t set any “artificial deadlines” for talks on a contract extension for first baseman Prince Fielder. “Prince has said he wants to be here, we have said we would love to have him here and we know our fans would love to have him here,” Attanasio said Saturday. “There is no timetable, no pressure on either side. I know you guys have seen Prince and he’s pretty relaxed. I think I’m pretty relaxed.” The Brewers have already engaged Fielder’s agent Scott Boras in some casual conversations about a contract extension. Fielder, who doesn’t turn 26 until May, figures to land a mega-deal if he hits free agency, however he remains under team control through the 2011 season. (Rotoworld)

There will be some heavy competition for the fifth spot in the Padres’ rotation. “We’ve got much more pitching depth than we’ve had,” said Padres manager Bud Black, who will have to choose between Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Cesar Ramos, Tim Stauffer and Sean Gallagher. It’s worth noting that Stauffer and Gallagher are out of options, although the latter will almost certainly stick around in the bullpen if he doesn’t make the rotation. (Rotoworld)

Reds manager Dusty Baker responded to Chris Dickerson’s frustration about wanting a chance to start in center field. “He had the job before Stubbs,” said Baker. “He’s in the running, he’s going to play. But you can’t take away what Stubbs did at the end of the year last year. You can be disappointed all you want to, but he allowed Stubbs to get his foot in the door.” Dickerson batted .275/.370/.373 with two home runs, 15 RBI, 11 stolen bases and 31 runs scored while supplying excellent defense — adequate production — but sprained his left ankle last August, affording Drew Stubbs an opportunity in center field. Stubbs responded with eight home runs and 10 stolen bases in just 43 games. He opens spring training as the favorite to be the starting center fielder. (Rotoworld)

Clayton Kershaw is in line to start for the Dodgers on Opening Day. It would be quite an honor for the 21-year-old southpaw. Kershaw was 9-9 with a 2.79 ERA last season and collected 185 strikeouts in 171 innings. He is scheduled pitch the Dodgers’ third spring game. (Rotoworld)

While he is comfortable with a part-time role, Matt Diaz feels that he could be a productive everyday player, as well. “Yeah I would love that,” he said. “I feel like by not playing every day I do miss some slumps, but I also miss some hot streaks in there, too. So I don’t know if I’d be – I guess my career average is right at .310 – I don’t know if I’d .310, but I think I could be productive as a main guy, I really do.” Diaz batted .313/.390/.488 last season, posting career highs with 13 home runs and 58 RBI.  Depending on if the Braves promote top prospect Jason Heyward, he could be in line for a full-time job to start the season. (Rotowire)

Minor League Ball’s John Sickels did a profile on Drew Stubbs, who is “Not a Rookie” by only a few at-bats:

I kept Stubbs as a Grade B- in the 2009 book, writing that “I’d like him to get another 100 games of Triple-A if at all possible, and if he gets rushed to the majors ahead of schedule, he could struggle. At worst he will be a strong fourth outfielder, but if the hitting is there he could be a fine regular center fielder with excellent defense, speed, and enough offense to stay in the lineup.”

Stubbs got those 100 games in Triple-A, hitting .268/.353/.360 for Louisville, with 48 steals in 54 attempts. He drew 51 walks against 104 strikeouts in 411 at-bats, but hit just three homers. Scouting repots clearly indicated that he was shortening his swing to concentrate on contact. But after being promoted to the majors for the stretch run, Stubbs suddenly showed more pop, hitting .267/.323/.439 for the Reds, including eight homers. His BB/K was 15/49 in 180 at-bats, which is about what you’d expect given his Triple-A numbers. He swiped 10 bags in 14 attempts. UZR loved his fielding at 7.6, (UZR/150 was 28.5), which dovetails perfectly with the scouting reports about a terrific glove.

Reds fans want to know: was Stubbs’ power outburst in the majors for real? Given the perils of sample size, it’s hard to say. His batting average, OBP, steals, and defense were exactly in line with expectation. He’s quite strong physically and has shown sparks of power before, but my guess is that we’ll see him regress somewhat in 2010, putting up something like a .260/.330/.400 line.

Some projection results:

Bill James Projection:   .267/.336/.390, 11 homers in 544 at-bats
CHONE Projection:      .251/.328/.380, 10 homers in 474 at-bats
Fangraphs Fan Proj:    .264/.338/.386, 10 homers in 488 at-bats

Those all seem like reasonable extrapolations to me, considering the totality of Stubb’s record. If he was still eligible for the prospect book, I’d still rate him as a Grade B- like last year at a minimum, and could get talked into a Grade B.

Although I’m expecting some power regression this year, in the medium and long runs he could get his SLG up around .450 in good seasons.

Padres general manager Jed Hoyer said Tuesday he expects Mat Latos to throw between 140-50 innings this season, the team’s official site reports. Latos threw 120 innings last season – his rookie campaign – before getting shut down by the Padres, and the expectation is the organization will closely monitor his workload again this season, especially since the Padres aren’t likely contenders in the NL West. Latos isn’t assured a spot in the Padres’ rotation come Opening Day, but he’s certainly one of the favorites to grab a spot. (Rotowire)

Chase Headley is excited about moving back to third base and believes it will help his all-around game this season. Headley has played out of position in left field for the past two years while Kevin Kouzmanoff patrolled third base for the Padres. Kouz moved on this winter, though, opening the door for Headley’s return to the hot corner. “It’s where I feel like I can be the best player,” Headley said Tuesday. “You never want to play a position where you don’t feel like you can do your best. It’s exciting to get a chance to go back.” (Rotoworld)

Clayton Kershaw is hoping to pitch without restrictions this season. “This year I don’t think there should be that 100-pitch thing,” Kershaw said. “If there was a pitch count last year, I think this year there should be no restrictions, no holds barred, I should pitch as long as I can. That’s what I’m hoping for. That’s just what I feel.” Kershaw exceeded 100 pitches in 16 of his 30 starts last season, but the 100-pitch was usually the benchmark for the young left-hander. Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said the Dodgers aren’t completely ready to set him loose, but will “loosen the reins a little bit and slowly increase him.” Kershaw was 9-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 171 innings last season. (Rotowire)

According to manager Bruce Bochy, Todd Wellemeyer and rookie Madison Bumgarner will battle it out to be the team’s fifth starter during spring training. Not a huge surprise. We don’t doubt that the Giants will give the 20-year-old Bumgarner an opportunity in good faith during spring training, but chances are they start him in Triple-A for at least a couple months in order to delay his service time. There’s conflicting opinions on this, so depending on how Wellemeyer fares, talent could outweigh restraint. (Rotoworld)

Manager Bruce Bochy clarified recent reports that top prospect Buster Posey would get some looks as an infielder, telling Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that “he’s a catcher.” Bochy simply wants him to take a few grounders at first base in an effort to keep his legs fresh, effectively downplaying recent whispers that he could even get a look at shortstop. Posey, who turns 23 in March, looks bound for Triple-A Fresno for the early part of the 2010 season with Bengie Molina re-signed as the team’s starting backstop. (Rotoworld)

Minor League Ball’s John Sickels recently did a “Prospect Retro“-spective feature on Josh Johnson:

Josh Johnson was drafted by the Florida Marlins in the fourth round of the 2002 draft, out of high school in Jenks, Oklahoma. Tall and projectable at 6-7, 215, he was erratic in high school, throwing 90-92 MPH at his best, but sometimes working in just the 85-87 range. He also needed to improve his breaking ball and changeup. Considered a first-round talent six months before the draft, his stock dropped due to an erratic spring and a University of Oklahoma scholarship. He signed late and got into just 15 innings in the Gulf Coast League, posting an 11/3 K/BB with a 0.60 ERA. I didn’t put him in the 2003 book, but if I had I would have rated him a Grade C prospect.

The Marlins ignored my advice and Johnson spent all of 2006 in the majors, pitching very well, going 12-7, 3.10 with a 133/68 K/BB in 157 innings, 136 hits allowed, a very successful rookie campaign. However, the injury bug struck in 2007. Although it was the shoulder that bothered him in the minors, in ‘07 his elbow gave out, necessitating Tommy John surgery. He came back extremely quickly in 2008 and went 7-1, 3.61 with a 77/27 K/BB in 87 innings. As you know, last year he went 15-5, 3.23 with a 191/58 K/BB in 209 innings, allowing 184 hits. Last year’s performance was better than anything he’d done in the minors, and it earned him a fat contract this off-season.

Johnson throws harder now: 92-98 last year according to fangraphs, averaging almost 95 MPH. This is about eight MPH harder than he threw in the lower minors, making him a textbook example of a “projectable” pitcher gaining velocity as he matures physically. His slider is his main second pitch; he uses his changeup a bit less than five percent of the time. Fangraphs rates all of his pitches as above average, and he picks up a lot of grounders to go with the strong strikeout rate.

My main concern for Johnson going forward is the possibility that the shoulder problems he had in the minors may recur. If he avoids injury and gets proper support from teammates, Johnson has the ability to be a Cy Young contender in the coming years along with Ubaldo Jimenez. Not bad for a guy who never really dominated in the minors. This is another example of how Grade C pitching prospects at the lower levels can sometimes develop into something very interesting.

The Giants have considered giving catching prospect Buster Posey a look at a variety of infield positions this spring. The Giants still view Posey as their future starting catcher, but he’s blocked this year by Bengie Molina and a little versatility would only help his long-term value. Posey, who turns 23 in late March, batted .325/.416/.531 last season with 18 homers and 80 RBI between Single-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. He’s likely to begin the 2010 season with Fresno. (Rotoworld)

Giants manager Bruce Bochy confirmed Friday that Madison Bumgarner will head into spring training as the team’s No. 5 starter. It might not be the smartest strategy, but it sure is exciting. Bumgarner, who doesn’t turn 21 until early August, had a 1.80 ERA in the 10 innings he pitched for the Giants last year. He spent most of the season at Single-A Connecticut and Double-A San Jose, where he rattled off a combined 12-2 record, 1.85 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 131 1/3 innings. (Rotoworld)

Padres almost-rookie Mat Latos was profiled in MinorLeagueBall.com’s “Not a Rookie” series.  John Sickels had this to say:

Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.

Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he’d be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That’s outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.

His major league statistics weren’t quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that’s just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.

There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he’s a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:   “He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from “he’s just a different guy” to “what a jackass.” His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn’t look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don’t have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I’m not overly concerned about the makeup issue.

I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think “he’s gonna get hurt.” Your mileage may vary.

In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he’d come in under the 50-inning limit, I’d rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher’s list.