Atomic RoadRunners

Yesterday, the Hardball Times ran its Wavier Wire feature, this time highlighting AaRr 3B Mat Gamel, among others. The article recaps the former top prospects chances with the Brewers (or another team, since he’s now rumored to be on the block).

Brewers fans have been itching for a long look at Gamel, the team’s top hitting prospect, at the major-league level, and they finally got their wishes in 2009. Unfortunately, by the time he got to the bigs, his way was blocked by a guy named Casey McGehee, and hampered by his own performance at the plate.

Gamel was mashing AAA pitching in April, with a .403/.483/.806 line that included 7 HRs and 8 2Bs, and got his first callup in mid-May as interleague play approached and the Crew figured they could use him at DH. Then Rickie Weeks went down for the season, and Milwaukee had the perfect opportunity to give him more PT; Craig Counsell and McGehee could both play 2B or 3B and Gamel could slide into the 3B rotation.

Even though he stayed with the big league club, that’s not how things worked out, which speaks volumes about how Milwaukee regards Gamel. His biggest liability at this point is his glove—he has an .883 career fielding percentage in the minors, with 156 errors in 1334 chances. That he booted 7 balls in 61 chances in the majors (with an .885 fielding percentage) shows those struggles are continuing. Milwaukee really doesn’t think the merits of his bat overcomes the deficits of his glove.

And his bat wasn’t all that meritorious in the majors, either. He started out hot, hitting .308/.438/.692 in his first 13 ABs (mostly as a pinch-hitter) then cooled off dramatically, hitting just .224/.322/.329 over his next 76 ABs through the end of June, with 11 BBs and 30 Ks. After he only started 6 of 14 games through mid-July, the team decided to give him more seasoning in AAA, instead of sporadic PT in the bigs.

Gamel’s funk carried over into the minors, where he hit .118/.225/.147 to close out July, then had OPSes of .751 and .669 in August and September. Despite this, the Brewers brought him back up to the big-league club in September, where he continued to collect splinters on the bench, even after Milwaukee was out of the pennant chase entirely. He collected just one start in 24 team games, though he hit .267/.353/533. Why they didn’t give him a longer look at this point in the season, with the pennant out of reach and both Counsell and McGehee nursing knee injuries, is a mystery.

In the long run, the extra time in AAA should prove beneficial to Gamel, since he’d only had 21 ABs at that level before this season. He did improve his defense there somewhat, booting just 18 balls in 201 chances for a fielding percentage of .901. But even that may not be enough for him to occupy the 3B position the Brewers have been holding open for him, especially with the emergence of Casey McGehee. And before you suggest a platoon between RH McGehee and LH Gamel (or even Counsell, if he’s re-signed), realize that Gamel’s platoon splits have been almost even in his minor-league career, and turning this 23-year-old into half a player at this point in his career would be a waste.

The other possible position for him, 1B, is of course blocked by the formidable presence of Prince Fielder. Barring a trade of either Gamel or McGehee (or, even less likely, Fielder), it looks like his best fit will be as a corner outfielder. But there, too, he’s blocked by Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. So you should expect a trade of Hart, McGehee or Gamel, in that order, before the 2010 season opens to resolve that logjam and to bolster their starting pitching, worst in the NL in 2009.

The Brewers have already indicated that they won’t part with Gamel for anything less than “his equivalent in pitching,” something most teams are unlikely to do at this stage of Gamel’s career. A trade to an AL team would allow Gamel to slide into what might be his best position, DH, but there’s not many teams willing to pay such a steep price for a guy who never wears a glove. So I’d expect to see Gamel in Milwaukee spring training, ready to prove himself at 3B or RF.

How will he perform? No matter where he ends up, he’s going to need to improve his batting eye and contact rate. His .50 minor-league BB/K rate has actually dropped as he ascended each level, as has his .77 contact rate. Scouts say he has the skills, with great batspeed and a good batting eye, so these ratios suggest he’s pressing, adjusting, or both. That’s not quite the trend you want to see from a talent like this, but he’s still only 23, so there’s plenty of time to turn it around, even if progress might be slow.

Keeper owners will want to keep this in mind—don’t expect him to be your 3B of the future, and don’t expect him to reach his full potential in 2010. He’ll be a very good hitter one day, wherever he ends up fitting into the lineup, though he profiles as an excellent #5 hitter behind Braun and Fielder. But moderate your expectations heading into 2010, particularly if he goes into Spring Training still blocked by both Hart and McGehee.