Posted on November 27, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
More on the Josh Johnson Situation with the Marlins
Joe Frisaro of MLBlogs identified some options for the Marlins and Josh Johnson, after the two sides reached an impasse in long-term contract negotiations.
Conventional wisdom has it that the Marlins will wind up trading Josh Johnson now that negotiations for a multiyear deal fell through. Before everyone jumps the gun on what the future holds, ask yourself, “When do the Marlins do anything conventional?”
What history has shown us about the franchise is they don’t walk in step with everyone else in the league. They often go against the grain, and they have enjoyed success doing it their way.
Johnson’s agent, Matt Sosnick, recently told MLB.com: “The strategy the Marlins have used has been good for the Marlins. They’ve been competitive almost every year with less.”
Indications are the Marlins would be perfectly willing to retain Johnson on one year contracts for his final two arbitration years. The ace right-hander, who earned $1.4 million in 2009, is looking at signing for between $4 million and $4.2 million in 2010.
It’s after 2010 that many feel the Marlins would consider trading Johnson. Since the team doesn’t speak publicly about contract negotiations, it’s purely speculation.
Don’t dismiss the prospect that the team will end up signing Johnson for 2011 as well, and if need be, take the compensatory draft picks in 2012 if the right-hander signs elsewhere when he reaches free agency. Also, the team may decide to keep him in 2011, and if they fall out of contention, then trade him at the July 31 deadline.
In the past, the Marlins accepted draft picks for pitchers Carl Pavano and A.J. Burnett when they moved on through free agency.
Granted, the Marlins have also dealt players who became too pricey before reaching free agency. Josh Beckett had one more year of arbitration when he was dealt to the Red Sox on Thanksgiving Night 2005.
That year was different for Florida. At the time, a potential new stadium deal fell through, and there was a mandate to dramatically reduce payroll.
The Marlins now have the security of a new ballpark opening in 2012. After that point, when their revenues rise substantially, the organization projects to have a mid-range payroll.
The team takes every player on a case-by-case basis. And they look to win every year, and adjust accordingly after each season. So if they feel keeping Johnson for two years gives them the best chance to win, they just might do so, rather than be reactionary and deal him to get something in return.
Besides, the Marlins view draft picks as receiving value.
And let’s not forget the fact that Johnson won’t be a free agent for two more years. So while both sides aren’t talking now doesn’t mean they can’t reconsider and open negotiations before then.