Posted on November 27, 2009 by Andrew Flynn
Jaffe Breaks Down Relief Pitching Market
Baseball Prospectus’ Jay Jaffe did a run-down on the relief pitching market, and here are the relevant comments on 2009 RoadRunners:
Rafael Betancourt: Splitting his 2009 season between Cleveland and Colorado, Betancourt put in a performance that was almost exactly halfway between his incredible 2007 (1.47 ERA, 8.9 K/BB ratio, and 6.9 WXRL, the AL’s second-highest total) and his lousy 2008 (5.07 ERA, 2.6 K/BB, and 0.6 WXRL). He was particularly strong in the heat of the NL Wild Card race, surviving his time at altitude without allowing a single home run at Coors Field. Betancourt misses plenty of bats, keeps the walks to a bare minimum, and generates a ton of popups (11.7 percent over the last three years, about 50 percent above the MLB average) to offset his extremely low ground-ball rate. The Rockies declined a $5.4 million option on him, but his marketability could be hamstrung if they offer arbitration, as he’s a Type A free agent.
Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez teamed with Soriano to form an effective lefty/righty late-inning combo in Atlanta this past season, and while the latter assumed most of the closer duties midway through the year, Gonzalez did crack the league’s top 20 in WXRL while ranking third in appearances and fifth in strikeouts among relievers. Though he’s left-handed, platoon splits aren’t really an issue for Gonzalez; his career splits are separated by just 32 points of OPS. In 2009, he held lefties to a .194/.255/.327 line, while limiting righties to .218/.340/.359, with that latter OBP inflated via eight intentional walks. To an even greater degree than his tandem-mate, health is an issue for Gonzalez; this was the first time since 2004 that he avoided the disabled list. He’s drawing interest as a set-up man from the beasts of the AL East; viewed as a closer, he’s likely limited to the teams whose first-round picks are protected.
Rafael Betancourt: Splitting his 2009 season between Cleveland and Colorado, Betancourt put in a performance that was almost exactly halfway between his incredible 2007 (1.47 ERA, 8.9 K/BB ratio, and 6.9 WXRL, the AL’s second-highest total) and his lousy 2008 (5.07 ERA, 2.6 K/BB, and 0.6 WXRL). He was particularly strong in the heat of the NL Wild Card race, surviving his time at altitude without allowing a single home run at Coors Field. Betancourt misses plenty of bats, keeps the walks to a bare minimum, and generates a ton of popups (11.7 percent over the last three years, about 50 percent above the MLB average) to offset his extremely low ground-ball rate. The Rockies declined a $5.4 million option on him, but his marketability could be hamstrung if they offer arbitration, as he’s a Type A free agent.
Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez teamed with Soriano to form an effective lefty/righty late-inning combo in Atlanta this past season, and while the latter assumed most of the closer duties midway through the year, Gonzalez did crack the league’s top 20 in WXRL while ranking third in appearances and fifth in strikeouts among relievers. Though he’s left-handed, platoon splits aren’t really an issue for Gonzalez; his career splits are separated by just 32 points of OPS. In 2009, he held lefties to a .194/.255/.327 line, while limiting righties to .218/.340/.359, with that latter OBP inflated via eight intentional walks. To an even greater degree than his tandem-mate, health is an issue for Gonzalez; this was the first time since 2004 that he avoided the disabled list. He’s drawing interest as a set-up man from the beasts of the AL East; viewed as a closer, he’s likely limited to the teams whose first-round picks are protected.