Atomic RoadRunners

Yesterday, the Hardball Times ran its Wavier Wire feature, this time highlighting AaRr 3B Mat Gamel, among others. The article recaps the former top prospects chances with the Brewers (or another team, since he’s now rumored to be on the block).

Brewers fans have been itching for a long look at Gamel, the team’s top hitting prospect, at the major-league level, and they finally got their wishes in 2009. Unfortunately, by the time he got to the bigs, his way was blocked by a guy named Casey McGehee, and hampered by his own performance at the plate.

Gamel was mashing AAA pitching in April, with a .403/.483/.806 line that included 7 HRs and 8 2Bs, and got his first callup in mid-May as interleague play approached and the Crew figured they could use him at DH. Then Rickie Weeks went down for the season, and Milwaukee had the perfect opportunity to give him more PT; Craig Counsell and McGehee could both play 2B or 3B and Gamel could slide into the 3B rotation.

Even though he stayed with the big league club, that’s not how things worked out, which speaks volumes about how Milwaukee regards Gamel. His biggest liability at this point is his glove—he has an .883 career fielding percentage in the minors, with 156 errors in 1334 chances. That he booted 7 balls in 61 chances in the majors (with an .885 fielding percentage) shows those struggles are continuing. Milwaukee really doesn’t think the merits of his bat overcomes the deficits of his glove.

And his bat wasn’t all that meritorious in the majors, either. He started out hot, hitting .308/.438/.692 in his first 13 ABs (mostly as a pinch-hitter) then cooled off dramatically, hitting just .224/.322/.329 over his next 76 ABs through the end of June, with 11 BBs and 30 Ks. After he only started 6 of 14 games through mid-July, the team decided to give him more seasoning in AAA, instead of sporadic PT in the bigs.

Gamel’s funk carried over into the minors, where he hit .118/.225/.147 to close out July, then had OPSes of .751 and .669 in August and September. Despite this, the Brewers brought him back up to the big-league club in September, where he continued to collect splinters on the bench, even after Milwaukee was out of the pennant chase entirely. He collected just one start in 24 team games, though he hit .267/.353/533. Why they didn’t give him a longer look at this point in the season, with the pennant out of reach and both Counsell and McGehee nursing knee injuries, is a mystery.

In the long run, the extra time in AAA should prove beneficial to Gamel, since he’d only had 21 ABs at that level before this season. He did improve his defense there somewhat, booting just 18 balls in 201 chances for a fielding percentage of .901. But even that may not be enough for him to occupy the 3B position the Brewers have been holding open for him, especially with the emergence of Casey McGehee. And before you suggest a platoon between RH McGehee and LH Gamel (or even Counsell, if he’s re-signed), realize that Gamel’s platoon splits have been almost even in his minor-league career, and turning this 23-year-old into half a player at this point in his career would be a waste.

The other possible position for him, 1B, is of course blocked by the formidable presence of Prince Fielder. Barring a trade of either Gamel or McGehee (or, even less likely, Fielder), it looks like his best fit will be as a corner outfielder. But there, too, he’s blocked by Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. So you should expect a trade of Hart, McGehee or Gamel, in that order, before the 2010 season opens to resolve that logjam and to bolster their starting pitching, worst in the NL in 2009.

The Brewers have already indicated that they won’t part with Gamel for anything less than “his equivalent in pitching,” something most teams are unlikely to do at this stage of Gamel’s career. A trade to an AL team would allow Gamel to slide into what might be his best position, DH, but there’s not many teams willing to pay such a steep price for a guy who never wears a glove. So I’d expect to see Gamel in Milwaukee spring training, ready to prove himself at 3B or RF.

How will he perform? No matter where he ends up, he’s going to need to improve his batting eye and contact rate. His .50 minor-league BB/K rate has actually dropped as he ascended each level, as has his .77 contact rate. Scouts say he has the skills, with great batspeed and a good batting eye, so these ratios suggest he’s pressing, adjusting, or both. That’s not quite the trend you want to see from a talent like this, but he’s still only 23, so there’s plenty of time to turn it around, even if progress might be slow.

Keeper owners will want to keep this in mind—don’t expect him to be your 3B of the future, and don’t expect him to reach his full potential in 2010. He’ll be a very good hitter one day, wherever he ends up fitting into the lineup, though he profiles as an excellent #5 hitter behind Braun and Fielder. But moderate your expectations heading into 2010, particularly if he goes into Spring Training still blocked by both Hart and McGehee.

Marlins GM Michael Hill said Sunday that there was no chance Josh Johnson would be traded this winter. “Yes, I can say with certainty, yes,” Hill said when asked if Johnson would remain with the team into next season. Johnson trade speculation started nine days ago, when he and the Marlins reached an impasse on extension talks. (Rotoworld)

Also: Josh Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick would be “surprised” to see the pitcher traded this winter, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. “I’d be less surprised if Elijah showed up at my parents’ house this Passover than if they trade him before the start of the season,” Sosnick said. According to two sources with knowledge of the club’s intentions, the Marlins do not plan to trade Johnson this winter. Speculation ran rampant following a “tweet” by John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus on Friday night, but it appears the Marlins will hang on to their young ace for now. (Rotoworld)

Apparently Debunked: John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus hears that the Marlins are willing to trade Josh Johnson “right now” for the right package. It stands to reason that the Marlins would entertain offers for the 25-year-old Johnson with a weak free agent market and Roy Halladay also expected to be traded this winter. While Johnson won’t cost the $15.10 million Halladay will next season, teams would have to give up some combination of major-league ready talent and prospects in exchange for two years of team control of one of the best young power arms in the game. (Rotoworld)

Joe Frisaro of MLBlogs identified some options for the Marlins and Josh Johnson, after the two sides reached an impasse in long-term contract negotiations.

Conventional wisdom has it that the Marlins will wind up trading Josh Johnson now that negotiations for a multiyear deal fell through. Before everyone jumps the gun on what the future holds, ask yourself, “When do the Marlins do anything conventional?”

What history has shown us about the franchise is they don’t walk in step with everyone else in the league. They often go against the grain, and they have enjoyed success doing it their way.

Johnson’s agent, Matt Sosnick, recently told MLB.com: “The strategy the Marlins have used has been good for the Marlins. They’ve been competitive almost every year with less.”

Indications are the Marlins would be perfectly willing to retain Johnson on one year contracts for his final two arbitration years. The ace right-hander, who earned $1.4 million in 2009, is looking at signing for between $4 million and $4.2 million in 2010.

It’s after 2010 that many feel the Marlins would consider trading Johnson. Since the team doesn’t speak publicly about contract negotiations, it’s purely speculation.

Don’t dismiss the prospect that the team will end up signing Johnson for 2011 as well, and if need be, take the compensatory draft picks in 2012 if the right-hander signs elsewhere when he reaches free agency. Also, the team may decide to keep him in 2011, and if they fall out of contention, then trade him at the July 31 deadline.

In the past, the Marlins accepted draft picks for pitchers Carl Pavano and A.J. Burnett when they moved on through free agency.

Granted, the Marlins have also dealt players who became too pricey before reaching free agency. Josh Beckett had one more year of arbitration when he was dealt to the Red Sox on Thanksgiving Night 2005.

That year was different for Florida. At the time, a potential new stadium deal fell through, and there was a mandate to dramatically reduce payroll.

The Marlins now have the security of a new ballpark opening in 2012. After that point, when their revenues rise substantially, the organization projects to have a mid-range payroll.

The team takes every player on a case-by-case basis. And they look to win every year, and adjust accordingly after each season. So if they feel keeping Johnson for two years gives them the best chance to win, they just might do so, rather than be reactionary and deal him to get something in return.

Besides, the Marlins view draft picks as receiving value.

And let’s not forget the fact that Johnson won’t be a free agent for two more years. So while both sides aren’t talking now doesn’t mean they can’t reconsider and open negotiations before then.

Baseball Prospectus’ Jay Jaffe did a run-down on the relief pitching market, and here are the relevant comments on 2009 RoadRunners:

Rafael Betancourt: Splitting his 2009 season between Cleveland and Colorado, Betancourt put in a performance that was almost exactly halfway between his incredible 2007 (1.47 ERA, 8.9 K/BB ratio, and 6.9 WXRL, the AL’s second-highest total) and his lousy 2008 (5.07 ERA, 2.6 K/BB, and 0.6 WXRL). He was particularly strong in the heat of the NL Wild Card race, surviving his time at altitude without allowing a single home run at Coors Field. Betancourt misses plenty of bats, keeps the walks to a bare minimum, and generates a ton of popups (11.7 percent over the last three years, about 50 percent above the MLB average) to offset his extremely low ground-ball rate. The Rockies declined a $5.4 million option on him, but his marketability could be hamstrung if they offer arbitration, as he’s a Type A free agent.

Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez teamed with Soriano to form an effective lefty/righty late-inning combo in Atlanta this past season, and while the latter assumed most of the closer duties midway through the year, Gonzalez did crack the league’s top 20 in WXRL while ranking third in appearances and fifth in strikeouts among relievers. Though he’s left-handed, platoon splits aren’t really an issue for Gonzalez; his career splits are separated by just 32 points of OPS. In 2009, he held lefties to a .194/.255/.327 line, while limiting righties to .218/.340/.359, with that latter OBP inflated via eight intentional walks. To an even greater degree than his tandem-mate, health is an issue for Gonzalez; this was the first time since 2004 that he avoided the disabled list. He’s drawing interest as a set-up man from the beasts of the AL East; viewed as a closer, he’s likely limited to the teams whose first-round picks are protected.

Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan reviewed the relief pitcher free agent market, and had the following to say about these 2009 Roadrunners:

Rafael Betancourt: It was mildly surprising that the Rockies passed on his option, because he was a key part of their late-season run and has been that good or better most of his career. Betancourt throws his fastball 75 percent of the time, which is down from where he peaked a few years ago. It’s a decent trick that warrants a guaranteed deal, even one with a vesting option. Betancourt will be one of the few values in a weak market.

Mike Gonzalez: Just twice all year was he asked to pitch in two separate innings, and he handled both assignments, pitching well in those outings and the ones that followed. So, while his history screams “handle with care,” it’s at least possible that he’s finally healthy. Just based on skills, he’s the best reliever available, and likely to get closer money in a Kerry Wood (two years, $20 million) package. The Tigers, Marlins, and Astros could need bullpen help badly enough to spend, though it’s not clear if any of them will. The Braves could do worse than to talk him into staying.

Kiko Calero: Calero now has a 3.24 ERA and nearly a 3:1 K/BB with more than a strikeout an inning in 302 2/3 career frames. He also throws his slider 97.4 percent of the time, and because of that is a pretty big health risk. The skills are worth a two-year deal light on guaranteed money and heavy on appearance incentives; he’ll either be good or unavailable. Calero is one of the good bargains in this market.

Josh Johnson and the Marlins have reached an “impasse” on contract talks, leaving the chances of a multi-year agreement in doubt. “Based on our conversations, there’s no chance of doing a long-term deal with the Marlins,” Johnson’s agent Matt Sosnick said. “We made it clear that it was going to be this year or it wasn’t going to happen. It was now or never. And the Marlins agreed.” According to Sosnick, the Marlins weren’t comfortable offering anything more than a three-year deal. Johnson, under team control through 2011, is due to make $4 million as an arbitration-eligible player next season. (Rotoworld)

Update (11/25): Despite recent failed contract extension talks, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told the Miami Herald that Josh Johnson will not be traded anytime soon. “We do love Josh,” Loria said Tuesday. The two sides had trouble finding common ground on long-term contract discussions last week, but it apparently hasn’t tarnished the relationship. Johnson, 25, went 15-5 in 2009 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He’s under team control through 2011. (Rotoworld)

Mat Latos was featured in The Hardball Times profile of three potential stars from the waiver wire:

Like [Nationals' starter Jordan] Zimmermann, Latos was his team’s top pitching prospect before shooting through the minors to earn a hasty promotion by a crummy team wanting a sneak peek at its future. Unlike Zimmermann, Latos is two years younger and finished the season hale and healthy. But there are other differences, too.

The Padres didn’t take Latos until the 11th round, not because of his skills, but because of his reported attitude problems—according to BA, he’s got a poor work ethic and “rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” But those skills are something else. He’s got a 95-plus mph heater, tight curve and hard slider, and has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout the minors, along with increasingly sharp control.

As a 19-year-old in short-season A-ball, Latos struck out 74 and walked 22 in 56.1 IP, giving up just pne HR. Those 22 free passes would represent the most he’d give up in the minors, and he would continue to strike batters out while keeping the baseball in the yard. At three levels in 2008, his K rate would dip slightly from 11.8 to 11.1 K/9, while his K/BB grew from 3.4 to 5.3; only his HR/9 rose to 0.6 from 0.2. His 2.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP confirmed his dominance.

Amazingly, almost all would continue to improve in 2009. Though his strikeouts fell to 9.1, his K/BB continued to rise to 6.1, his HR/9 fell to 0.1 (1 HR in 72.1 IP), and his 1.37 ERA and 0.75 WHIP were at elite levels. The Padres could wait no longer and promoted him straight from Double-A for his July 19 start against Colorado.

According to SI.com’s Jon Heyman, the Brewers plan to approach Prince Fielder with a long-term extension this offseason. Fielder finished second in the majors with 46 homers in 2009 and tied Albert Pujols with 141 RBI. He finished with an impressive .299/.412/.602 batting line. The Brewers need to find solutions for the wretched starting rotation this winter, but locking up a hitter like Fielder can only be described as wise. (Rotoworld)

Update: Brewers GM Doug Melvin has said he won’t address an extension for Prince Fielder until he fills current needs. Probably Jan. at earliest. – Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt’s tweet.

It took about a week, but I was finally able to update the AaRr All-Time Roster spreadsheet to include the pitchers (the hitters had been completed several months ago).  The lists themselves will be added to the archive section during the offseason, but here are some interesting tidbits:

Most Seasons in a RoadRunners uniform:

7 seasons:

• Danny Graves, Reds closer (1999-2005)
• Robb Nen, closer for Marlins and Giants (1994-2001, except for 1998)

6 seasons:

• Rondell White, Expos OF (1992-1997)
• Reggie Sanders, Reds OF (1992-1997)
• Geoff Jenkins, Brewers OF (1999-2001, 2004-2006)

5+ seasons:

• Prince Fielder, 1B Brewers, who will likely make it 6 seasons if he is protected for 2010. (2005-present)

5 seasons:

• Ken Caminiti, 3B (1992-1994 Astros) and (1996-1997 Padres)
• Khalil Greene, SS Padres (2002-2006)
• Damian Miller, C (1999, 2001, 2002 Diamondbacks, 2003 Cubs, and 2005 Brewers)
• Raul Mondesi, OF (1994-1997 Dodgers, 2003 Diamondbacks)
• Salomon Torres, P (1992-1994 starter for Giants) and (2002 and 2004, reliever for Pirates)

4+ Seasons:

• Chris Iannetta, C Rockies, who will likely make it 5 seasons if he is protected for 2010. (2006-present)

Also note that there is something about the Joneses sticking around for four seasons:

• Andruw Jones, OF (2002-2004 Braves, 2008 Dodgers)
• Bobby J. Jones, P (1992, 1999 Mets, 2001, 2002 Padres)
• Chipper Jones, 3B (2006-2009, Braves)
• Todd Jones, RP (1993-1995 Astros, 2004 Reds)

Former Roadrunner Tim Lincecum was named the National League Cy Young for a second straight season, earning 11 of 32 first-place votes. The most hotly-contested award thus far, Lincecum barely edged out Chris Carpenter, who earned nine first-place votes and Adam Wainwright, who actually had 12 first-place votes. Lincecum is just the second pitcher to win the award without the most first place votes — Tom Glavine was the other in 1998. Lincecum is the first repeat winner since Randy Johnson won four straight from 1999-2002. There’s an argument to be made that Lincecum was actually better this season than he was in 2008, posting a lower ERA (2.48 compared to 2.62), a lower WHIP (1.05 compared to 1.17) and a lower batting average against (.206 compared to .221). Though he didn’t best last year’s totals, Lincecum led the National League with 261 strikeouts. Thankfully, Lincecum’s modest 15-7 record didn’t scare the BBWAA off. (Rotoworld)

FOXSports.com reports that the despite the Brewers’ logjam in the infield, they are unlikely to make a trade unless they are offered the pitching equivalent of Mat Gamel. According to the report, Gamel garners more interest than Casey McGehee and Rickie Weeks with rival clubs, but as a left-handed hitter, he would help balance the Milwaukee’s righty-heavy lineup. Gamel, 24, batted .242/.338/.422 with five home runs and 20 RBI in 128 at-bats for the Brewers last season. Even though he is a highly-regarded hitter, his defense is still playing catch up. Though general manager Doug Melvin would include him in the right deal, he is more likely to address the starting rotation via the free agent market. (Rotoworld)

According to the New York Post, the Red Sox have requested medical records on free agent relievers Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Gonzalez, 31, went 5-4 with a 2.42 ERA this season and converted 10 of 17 save chances. Soriano, 29, was 1-6 with a 2.97 ERA in 77 games and racked up 102 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings. He converted 27 of 31 save chances. Both would serve as excellent setup men in the Boston bullpen. (Rotoworld)

Also, Mark Bowman of MLB.com cites to major league sources who say that Mike Gonzalez has chosen Scott Boras to serve as his agent. Gonzalez was previously represented by Dan Lozano of the Beverly Hills Sports Council. The new affiliation shouldn’t affect the pitcher’s chances of returning to Atlanta, as general manager Frank Wren has a good working relationship with Boras, according to Bowman. Since Gonzalez is a Type A free agent, the Braves will almost certainly offer him arbitration. Gonzalez posted a 2.42 ERA in a career-high 80 appearances as Atlanta’s set-up man in 2009. (Rotoworld)

Reds agreed to terms with catcher Ramon Hernandez on a one-year, $3 million contract. The contract also includes a $3.25 million vesting option for 2011 if Hernandez plays in 120 games. Limited to just 81 games in 2009 due to knee surgery in July, Hernandez batted .258/.336/.362 with five home runs and 37 RBI. Hernandez also made 21 starts at first base while Joey Votto was on the disabled list. Ultimately, Ryan Hanigan may have been a better and cheaper option, especially defensively, but the Reds like the pop that a healthy Hernandez can potentially add to the lineup. (Rotoworld)

Bill Ladson of MLB.com reports that the Nationals have interest in Mike Gonzalez and Mark DeRosa. Gonzalez posted a 2.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 80 appearances as Atlanta’s set-up man in 2009 and would certainly improve a bullpen that was the worst in the majors for the great majority of the season. He’d be a wiser end-game option than Mike MacDougal. As for the versatile DeRosa, Washington will have plenty of competition, as several teams have already inquired about the 34-year-old. Though he played mostly third base in 2009, Ladson notes that the Nationals have interest in him as a second baseman or left fielder. (Rotoworld)

Here’s the Agenda:

THURSDAY

6:00 PM: Welcome Reception - in the "Pavilion" @ DoubleTree

FRIDAY

8:00 AM: Introductions and Welcome
	RON SHANDLER, Baseball HQ
8:30 AM: Arizona Fall League Scouting Report
   	JASON GREY, ESPN
   	KIMBALL CROSSLEY, Toronto Blue JayS
9:30 AM: Break
9:45 AM: The Great Debates
	1: Regarding player performance analysis and fantasy strategy...
	TODD ZOLA, Mastersball.com
	RON SHANDLER, Baseball HQ
	2: Catchers are the last of the truly scarce positions...
	JEFF ERICKSON, Rotowire
	TRISTAN COCKCROFT, ESPN.com
10:45 AM: Squeezing Value out of the Top 10
	JOHN SICKELS, Minorleagueball.com
	JASON GREY, ESPN.com
	ROB GORDON, Baseball HQ
	MODERATOR: Jock Thompson
12:00 Noon - Lunch (on your own)
12:35pm: AFL ballgame
	Scottsdale Scorpions @ Phoenix Desert Dogs
	(Phoenix Municipal Stadium)
3-6 PM: 8th Annual Xperts Fantasy League (XFL) Draft
   	Jeff Winick, Brian Feldman, Alex Patton/Peter Kreutzer
	Perry Van Hook, Trace Wood, John Menna, Rick Wilton
	Doug Dennis, Todd Zola, Brian Walton, Greg Ambrosius
	Ron Shandler, Don Drooker, Steve Moyer, Lawr Michaels
Also:
4-5 PM: Gaming and Roster Analysis forum
6:35 PM: AFL ballgame
	Peoria Saguaros @ Peoria Javelinas (Peoria Sports Complex)

SATURDAY

8:00 AM: Fact or Fluke? The Surprises of 2009
	JOE SHEEHAN, Baseball Prospectus
	JEFF ERICKSON, Rotowire
	DOUG DENNIS, Baseball HQ
	MODERATOR: Patrick Davitt
9:30 AM: The Great Debates
	3: Punting saves on draft day...
	PETER KREUTZER, AskRotoman.com
	ALEX PATTON, AlexPatton.com
10:00 AM: Break
10:15 AM: The Great Debates
	4: In redraft leagues, when it comes to baseball's top prospects...
	GREG AMBROSIUS, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
	NICK MINNIX, KFFL
10:45 AM: Fantasy Information Panel
	LENNY MELNICK, FantasyPros911.com
	STEVE GARDNER, USA TODAY Sports Weekly
	TODD ZOLA, Mastersball.com
	STEVE MOYER, Baseball Info Solutions
	TIM HEANEY, KFFL
	MODERATOR: Brent Hershey
11:45 AM: Lunch  Buffet @ DoubleTree
1:00 PM: Special Guest Speaker -
	MIKE BERGER, Director of Player Development for the Arizona Diamondbacks
2:00 PM: The 15th Annual Rick Wilton Injury Session
	RICK WILTON, Baseball Injury Report (published by Fanball.com)
3:00 PM: 10th Annual Arizona Challenge
6:15 PM: Rising Stars Game (AFL All Star Game) (Surprise Stadium) 

SUNDAY:

8:00 AM: The Great Debates
	5: In keeper leagues...
	LAWR MICHAELS, CREATiVESPORTS.com
	STEVE MOYER, Baseball Info Solutions
	6: When scouting and statistical information contradict...
	JASON GREY, ESPN.com
	JOE SHEEHAN, Baseball Prospectus
9:00 AM: Special Guest Speaker -
	KIMBALL CROSSLEY, Toronto Blue Jays Scout
10:00 AM: Break
10:15 AM: Special Guest Speaker -
	TIM PURPURA EVP/COO Minor League Baseball, former GM Houston Astros
11:15 AM: Open Forum Q&A