Atomic RoadRunners

Marlins released third baseman Dallas McPherson. Our expectations for the Marlins get lower by the hour. Because of the foolish decision to re-sign Wes Helms to a guaranteed contract, the team is now in a position to have an entirely right-handed bench. It’s not even a good right-handed bench. Ronny Paulino and Helms are only acceptable against left-handers, and Robert Andino and Brett Carroll have yet to show they can be useful major leaguers at all. Those four combined to hit .223 with nine homers and a 118/33 K/BB ratio in 449 major league at-bats last season. McPherson is hardly a sure thing, but he sure seemed like a great fit for a team going with a light-hitting righty at third. Hopefully, he’s able to quickly find a fit elsewhere. (Rotoworld)

Emilio Bonifacio went 1-for-3 with a walk and a steal as the Marlins’ leadoff hitter in Tuesday’s loss. They’re right after all! While there’s no doubt that the Marlins gain quite a bit of range at third base with Bonifacio now in the lineup, they’re weaker at first base with Jorge Cantu replacing Gaby Sanchez and still awful up the middle. If they wanted to go this route, they should have just installed Bonifacio at second and shifted Dan Uggla to third a month ago. Especially on a team with just one left-handed starter — and that being the so-far-unreliable fifth starter Andrew Miller — there just aren’t going to be many balls hit to third. It doesn’t seem at all likely that it’s worth the offensive trade off to get Bonifacio in the lineup, especially if Bonifacio is going to be hitting leadoff. By all means, pick him up in NL-only leagues. Just don’t expect him to actually help the Marlins. Although his on-base skills aren’t great he’ll probably see some time in the leadoff spot as well, and he’s got some upside in steals. If you’re looking to pick him up in your draft or auction, keep in mind he only qualifies at second base in most leagues to start the season. (Rotoworld)

Blake DeWitt went 3-for-5 and homered as the Dodgers edged the Diamondbacks 10-9 on Tuesday. At .299/.338/.433, DeWitt has turned in a decent enough spring, though certainly nothing spectacular for an Arizona hitter. It doesn’t appear likely to earn him a spot on the Dodgers with Doug Mientkiewicz set to make the team. (Rotoworld)However, he would almost certainly be the choice if Mark Loretta has a setback and has to open the season on the disabled list.

Chris Duncan went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer and a walk as the Cards topped the Orioles 7-3 on Tuesday. Duncan is batting .301/.352/.470 in 83 at-bats, which is a bit better than Colby Rasmus’ .273/.371/.403 line. However, since it looks like the Cards are leaning towards keeping both and Rasmus is their best defensive outfielder, Duncan still projects as a fourth outfielder. Duncan hit his third homer of the spring into the right field bleachers in the third inning. Duncan had a disc replaced in his neck last August. “I felt this spring like I wanted to feel coming in. Numbers don’t mean a lot to guys coming off good seasons, but for a guy in my situation, they do,” Duncan said. Duncan is batting .301 with seven extra base hits in 83 at bats this spring. He has 18 RBI and 19 strikeouts. He definitely K’s a little too much but still has the potential to hit 25-30 home runs in a full season. Consider Duncan a sleeper better left for NL-only leagues, however, because Colby Rasmus figures to take some of his at bats away later in the season. (CBS Sports)

Chipper Jones and the Braves agreed Tuesday to a $42 million, three-year contract extension through 2012, a deal with an option that could become worth up to $61 million over four seasons. Due $10 million this season in the option year of a contract that began in 2006, Jones gets a $3 million signing bonus as part of the new deal, payable in $1 million installments each Jan. 15 starting next year. Jones receives annual salaries of $13 million from 2010-12 and can earn $1.5 million a year in performance bonuses: $750,000 each for 135 and 140 games. His contract contains a $9 million option for 2013 that would become guaranteed if he plays in 123 games in 2012 or averages 127 games in 2011-12. The option price could increase by up to $4 million: $1 million each for 128, 133, 138 and 140 games in 2012 (or averages of 132, 137, 138 and 140 in 2011-12). In addition, he could earn $1.5 million in performance bonuses based on the earlier criteria. If the vesting option fails to become guaranteed, the club would hold a $7 million option. Jones, the only switch-hitter with at least 300 homer and a .300 career batting average, is not the type of player to stop starring because he is no longer playing for a paycheck. Consider him a solid injury-risk veteran after the top five options are off the board at the third base position on Draft Day. (CBS Sports)

Mike Gonzalez gave up two hits, a walk and a run with a strikeout in Tuesday’s loss to Houston. His spring ERA rose to 6.48. Despite his struggles, we’re not worried. He’s a veteran who is set to make the team and he’s healthy and says he’s happy with his velocity. With Rafael Soriano questionable for the start of the season with an oblique injury, he’s set as the exclusive closer in the near term. (Rotowire)

Austin Kearns hit his third home run of the spring Tuesday. He’s cooled down a bit at the plate, but still has a .275/.408/.525 line on the spring, as compared to Josh Willingham’s .227/.346/.432. Neither one will likely get enough playing time in right field to suit them, but right now Kearns might have just edged into the lead to be the Opening Day starter. (Rotowire)

With Chris Perez getting sent down to Memphis, Kyle McClellan has officially made the team. On the heels of a tough second half of 2008, McClellan has had a terrible spring. A recent change back to the right side of the pitching rubber should help, but hopefully this year he won’t be as overworked as last year. (Rotowire)

Atlanta LF Brandon Jones was back in action on Tuesday against the Astros after leaving Saturday’s game against the Yankees with a stomach virus. He had two at-bats in the game, going 1-for-2 and raising his spring batting average to .354. Jones ended up hitting .267 with a .397 slugging percentage in 41 games with Atlanta last season and is primed to do far better in 2009. Still, even with his spring success this season, he’s primed to begin the year in Triple-A. In the majors, Jones could be a nice addition to your roster in NL-only leagues but you don’t need to concern yourself with him in Fantasy drafts at the moment. (CBS Sports)

Kenshin Kawakami pitched six innings and allowed two runs Monday as the Braves topped the Red Sox 4-3 in 10 innings. The duel of Japanese pitchers was pretty much a stalemate, with Daisuke Matsuzaka yielding two runs — one earned — in five innings. Rocco Baldelli homered for the only two runs off Kawakami, who allowed four hits, walked two and struck out four. He walked two and had four strikeouts to lower his spring ERA to 1.74. The only two runs he allowed came on a two-run homer to Rocco Baldelli. “I felt like I pitched well,” said Kawakami. “He was real good again,” Braves manager Bobby Cox said. “He had that knee-buckling curve. I don’t think anyone had a good swing at it. There aren’t too many good hooks around anymore. It’s a big weapon for him.” The Braves tabbed Derek Lowe as the Opening Day starter and Lowe will start twice in the team’s first five games due to scheduling and off days. That pushes Kawakami back until the second game of the series against the Nationals. Kawakami is a decent late-round flier in deeper leagues for his potential to win 12-plus games for a sleeper contender in the NL East. He probably won’t be another Matsuzaka or anything, but he’s off to a good start in majors. (CBS Sports)

Washington SP Shairon Martis was rewarded with the Nationals No. 4 spot in the rotation on Sunday and then went out and pitched on Monday. He didn’t look like someone worthy of the spot. Martis pitched 4 1/3 innings and allowed three runs and four hits with five strikeouts and a walk. He struggled with his control and threw 94 pitches, 60 for strikes. “He had a lot of deep counts. He was trying to be too fine earlier in the game and ran up a lot of 3-2 counts,” Nationals manager Manny Acta said. “After the second inning he was little more aggressive and threw the ball OK.” Martis was shaky on Monday but was able to at least limit the damage and he’ll have to learn to do that a lot this season pitching for the Nationals. Still, prior to this start, Martis was 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA over 19 innings this spring. He was mowing down hitters and has 16 strikeouts and only five walks. You may now consider him a sleeper for NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues but be warned that the Nationals will ultimately struggle to get him many wins. (CBS Sports)

Cubs SS Ryan Theriot went 2-for-2 with a double and two runs scored Sunday against the Indians. He also walked twice. He’s batting .436 (24-for-55) this spring. Theriot doesn’t have much natural ability, but he did hit .307 and steal 22 bases last season. The Cubs trust him as their starting shortstop, so he should score a decent number of runs, if nothing else. Consider him a decent late-round middle infielder, especially in Rotisserie leagues. (CBS Sports)

Up to this point it’s been a textbook example on how to spend months devising and revising a plan and budget, and then spending ten minutes blowing that up, and then an uncomfortable hour trying to patch everything back together – with no luck.  Since the quality of the players is reduced, we’ll go to bullet-point format from here on out.

Round Six – 3:39 pm

• Andrew: “Ramon Hernandez” – At this point I figured it best to lick my wounds and focus on filling out the remainder of my roster as best as I could.  After all, I only had $19 for six players, including a Corner, Catcher, Outfielder, and three Pitchers.  I’ll let the last value OF come later in the auction, so the best bet is to grab one of the last remaining quality catchers. Alex, of course, gets him for $8 (just over my budget), and puts him at DH, as he’s already protecting Brian McCann and Chris Snyder.  This is a make-up move by Alex, as I was trying to acquire Hernandez from X back in 2005, but instead got Johnny Estrada from Drew.  Hernandez was then traded to Baltimore, where he’s been ever since.  Or that’s what I’m telling myself.
• Alex: “Randy Wolf” – Not very exciting, and it shows how thin the starting pitching pool is already.  Alex’s self-nomination results in a $5 Randy Wolf.
• Paul: “Christian Guzman” – ugh – empty batting average, and only when he’s on the field.  Good luck with that.  Paul ends up getting him for $4.
• Drew: “Scott Olsen” – Imagine Drew nominating a Nationals player? The de-facto “ace” of the Nats goes to Barry for a whopping $2.
• Stan: “Houston Street” – New closer for the Rockies, and a good handcuff for Stan, who is protecting Manny Corpas.  However, Stan, who has $18 for 9 players at this point, can’t keep up with the bidding, and Street goes to Tim for $10, joining Chad Qualls at $12 for an inexpensive bullpen.
• Barry: “Jordan Zimmerman” – Hot rookie Nationals pitcher – where’s Drew?  Here he is! I actually bid $3 here, since I thought Zimmerman would be a good substitute for Tommy Hanson, but quickly decided not to go further. Drew gets his second pitcher for $7.
• Mark: “Milton Bradley” – Here’s an interesting case.  You know he’ll hit for some average, with a bit of pop. You’re also guaranteeing yourself at least two trips to the DL.  I had him briefly in 2007 when he came over from the A’s to the Padres, and he was a great pickup, who was then flipped quickly.  Some may recall he then blew out his knee arguing with an umpire in September, but I had already traded him away. At this point, I obviously can’t afford him, and Mark locks him up for $16.
• Steve: “Miguel Tejada” – Everyone knows Tejada is on the decline, but how much?  Since I can’t even bid, I won’t find out. Mark (who had the most cash coming into the round) spends $17 to firm up his infield.
• Tom: “Kenshin Kawakami” – Kawakami was one of the players I had on my short list.  He had a decent spring, and I figured there would be some upside.  Bidding got a bit carried away, but I ended up grabbing him for $7.
• Tim: “Ivan Rodriguez” - At this point Tim hadn’t filled in a catcher yet, and with $46 for 6 players, Pudge was the best remaining catcher on the board, at least in my rankings.  Interestingly, though, Barry ended up with the top bid at $9.

Round Six lasted 27 minutes.

Round Seven – 4:06 pm

• Andrew: “Ryan Zimmerman” – Zimmerman was the best guy on the board, period.  I had originally selected him in 2005 when he signed quickly out of Virginia with the Nationals, protecting him as a $1 minor leaguer.  I traded him in a deal in 2006 to Drew, who held onto him. Zimmerman is Drew’s all-time team captain, basically, but with Drew needing 13 players, I don’t think he’ll get him this season.  Neither will I – I can bid a whopping $8 as my maximum.  So what happens? Drew gets him for $27, his maximum.  He fended off bidding from Tim, Mark, and Barry.  Bravo! That’s fortitude.  Drew now has $12 remaining for 12 players.  See you in the 11th round!
• Alex nominated Kevin Gregg, who went to Paul for $7
• Paul nominated Luis Castillo, who went to Barry for $7
• Drew nominated Todd Helton, whom I attempted to bid on (I even bid $6!), but he went for $14 to Tim.
• Stan nominated Wandy Rodriguez, who went to Tom for $8
• Barry nominated Sean Marshall, who went to Paul for $3
• Mark nominated Mike Cameron, who, after some back-and-forth bidding, went to Tim for $19
• Steve nominated Freddy Sanchez.  Barry grabbed him for $9
• Tom nominated Jerry Hairston, Jr., and got him for $5, as his first outfielder.
• Tim nominated a Brewers catcher, Jason Kendall, and he finally got on the board with that one, for $1 – the first dollar player.

Round Seven also lasted 27 minutes.  After seven rounds, it’s time for a money check:

• Andrew: $12 for 5 players
• Alex:     $39 for 7 players
• Paul:     $28 for 7 players
• Drew:     $12 for 12 players (including 8 pitchers)
• Stan:     $18 for 9 players
• Barry:     $29 for 8 players
• Mark:     $52 for 6 players
• Steve:     $29 for 6 players
• Tom:     $16 for 4 players
• Tim:     $12 for 3 players

Round Eight – 4:33 pm

• I nominated the last remaining “good” catcher, the Marlins John Baker, whom I was hoping I could get for $3.  I had to go to $5, bidding against Tim. I’m now the first owner with single-digit cash remaining ($7)
• Alex: Taylor Buchholz – got him for $1
• Paul: Felipe Lopez – Alex get him for $10
• Drew: Juan Pierre – Paul gets him for $3
• Stan: Cla Meredith – Another $1 pitcher
• Barry: Edgar Renteria – Mark still has plenty of cash remaining, and gets him for $10
• Mark: Eric Byrnes – Steve drops $14 on the possibility of a Byrnes comeback
• Steve: Chris Volstad – Paul takes his last pitcher for $3
• Tom: Lou Marson – Tim curiously says “$2″ and then there were crickets.
• Tim: Jason Motte – Mark spends $14 on the possible Cardinals closer

Round Eight lasted 24 minutes, with two $1 players, a $2, and two $3, the rounds are getting quicker.

Round Nine – 4:57pm

• I nominate another high-risk, high-reward pitcher, who could be in line for saves (and is a Michigan alum) in J.J. Putz. Steve grabs him for $5, which is out of my price range.
• Alex: Clint Barmes – A quick back-and-forth and Alex has him for $3
• Paul: Bill Hall – Barry fills out his infield for $4
• Drew: Josh Willingham – Alex gets him for $8.  See? This is the level of OF I should have been focusing on, instead of Brad Frickin’ Hawpe at $29
• Stan: Bobby Howry – Stan seems to be using a relief pitching sheet from 2004. He gets Howry for $1, and his pitching is completed
• Barry: Jeremy Hermida – Another decent mid-game OF for $9. Alex now joins me in the single-digit cash club ($8)
• Mark: Orlando Hudson – Alex must be in a hurry, as he grabs Hudson for $7, completing his hitting.
• Steve: Jeff Francouer – Tim gets in on the OF rush and grabs Frenchy for $9
• Tom: Ramon Castro – this is the level of remaining catchers.  Stan actually bids $3 to get the Mets backup.
• Tim: Joe Blanton – Tim can now only nominate pitchers. Barry says $2.

Round Nine takes 22 minutes.  Here’s the money check:

• Andrew: $7 for  4 players
• Alex:     $1 for     1 players – hitting complete
• Paul:     $22 for 5 players – pitching complete
• Drew:     $12 for 12 players (including 8 pitchers)
• Stan:     $13 for 6 players – pitching complete
• Barry:     $23 for 6 players
• Mark:     $28 for 4 players
• Steve:     $10 for 4 players
• Tom:     $16 for 4 players
• Tim:     $9 for  1 players – hitting complete

Well, this portion of the draft wasn’t as catastrophic as it could have been.  Since I only spent $12 on two players ($7 Kawakami, $5 Baker), it couldn’t have been that bad.  But this was all about recovery, and for once I got to witness others painting themselves into a corner.  Tom has pretty much neglected outfield, and Drew of course needs 12 one-dollar players, so it’s not all bad.

The end of the auction is coming in Part Five!

[click to read Part One - Strategy or Part Two - The First Round]

Well, to recap, in the first round I spent almost half my money on a player I wasn’t supposed to get at a price too high, and then spent $10 more than budgeted for my DH.  Now I have no hope of getting a decent outfield, a first basemen, or a pitching staff, and it’ll be a looooong summer.  Hyperbole, sure, but it’s supposed to put you in the mood.

Round Two – 1:45pm

Andrew: “Johan Santana”

Well, I figured I’d get him out there, especially since I can’t bid on him – not responsibly, that is.  There have been drunk bids by those semi-intoxicated with alcohol, and there have also been a fair number of bids on studs by those semi-intoxicated by the auction action, as it were.  Sometimes reason goes out the window.  See Exhibit A, Jose Reyes.

I actually think Santana is a bit undervalued because of his perceived “bad year” last year – based solely on only getting 12 wins.  Never mind that his bullpen blew nine of his leads.

Santana goes for $39 to Paul, who got him last year for $43, so kudos to him.  He’s on the board.

Alex: “Carlos Zambrano”

Ugh.  Zambrano is a pitcher is dislike immensely.  He’s not really as good as his auction price, and he always seems to be overvalued.  His WHIP is getting worse each year, as are his peripherals, and he’s more and more hittable.  Of course, there are those that have rose-colored glasses towards the big fellas.  I guess if you squint hard enough he’ll start to look like CC Sabathia.  Plus the Superstation Cubs premium adds a buck or two for the guys that do/did live in Chicago.

In a surprise, Zambrano only goes for $21, in less-than-spirited bidding.  The bigger surprise is that he went to Barry, whom I would not have pegged as a Big Z fan.  Ah, well, he’s on the board.

Paul: “Rich Harden”

Now Harden is a quality pitcher – great K’s, great ERA and WHIP – when he pitches.  The Cubs got a good turn out of him last season, but now he’s questionable for the start of the season, and the rumors are that he’ll be the No. 5 starter so he can get extra rest.  Another guy I wanted, but that’s now shot to hell.

Alex gets him for $21 – same a Zambrano.  Interesting.

Drew: “Prince Fielder”

Ah, Prince.  So good to me for three seasons at $10.  Probably no chance of getting him, though I do throw down a “$21″ as the bidding rushes past me. Curiously, the bidding stalls in the high-20’s.  Granted, only three first basemen were needed (plus nine corners), but come on!

Tom gets Fielder for a bargain price of $29

Stan: “Jake Peavy”

Here’s the last of the top starters, before the first drop-off.  Sure Peavy plays for a team that won’t win many games, and there’s a strong possibility that he’ll end up traded out of PETCO Park, but with his K’s he could still offer a stud-like season.

Peavy ends up going for $30 – to Stan – the second self-bid winner of the day, both ace starters, both by Stan.

The rest of the second round goes as follows:

Barry: “Francisco Rodriguez” - who cares? I have three closers.  He goes to Steve for $25.

Mark: “Matt Kemp” – I’m out already.  I was a bit surprised that he was so hyped this offseason by most publications.  I think he’s a Shane Victorino-type more than a Soriano type, and I’m not buying. He goes to Paul for $32.

Steve: “Chad Billingsley” – The best bet of the second tier of starters. He’s decent, young, but broke his leg in November, and might experience a bit of a setback.  I not really wild about him.  Of course he goes to Tim for $27 (I’d rather have Hamels at $25) where he’ll join other youngsters Yovanni Gallardo, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer

Tom: “Adrian Gonzalez” - His value would be much greater anywhere other than San Diego, where he may set a team record for intentional walks.  Alex gets him for a reasonable $25.

Tim: “Stephen Drew” - Again Tim nominates the best remaining shortstop – because that’s what you do when you already have Hanley Ramirez for $50.  Again, I can’t bid on middle infielders, and in a surprise, he goes to Drew for $24, slotted at DH.  Drew now has only $56 remaining, and still has yet to acquire a pitcher.  Interesting.

The second round lasted 23 minutes.

Round Three – 2:07pm

Andrew: “Derrek Lee” – A poor choice for a nomination, but I guess I was hoping to clear out the rest of the first base starters.  Tom ends up getting him for $23, but he was disappointed (only $2 less than Adrian Gonzalez), plus that pick clogs his DH spot.  He wasn’t happy with that one.  Maybe it was a good nomination after all.

Alex: “Jonathan Broxton” – Decent nomination for the young-stud closer fans.  Relievers haven’t really been brought up yet, so maybe the trend is starting.  Steve gets him for $25, netting both closers nominated thus far for $50.  I guess he’s happy with his starters.

Paul: “Khalil Greene” – Probably a low-ball nomination to squeak one by.  He’s undervalued after his bad season in San Diego, but might do well in St. Louis. Stan gets him for $8 – our first single-digit player.

Drew: “Adam Dunn”

Just like in the movie “Hot Fuzz” a light bulb illuminates over my head, and I say “Idea!”  Dunn is eligible at both first and outfield, so why don’t I focus on versatility, and try to nab Dunn as a first baseman.  He’s much better than the next-best first baseman available, and there’s only a few players that can match his 40-homer power potential in the draft (Fielder, maybe Soriano).  Additionally, if I end up getting a decent 1B later on, I can move him to outfield.

I get him for $19, which I think is reasonable, but several think that’s a bit high.  At least I have Chipper Jones to counteract his batting average.

So that’s $19 down, which leaves me with $64 for eight players, but I can at least shuffle the CM, 1B and an OF spot around if necessary.

Stan: “Matt Cain” – Hard-luck starter that I have ranked near the bottom of the third tier – lower than others.  He just hasn’t turned his potential into his performance.  Tom gets him for $24, only a dollar less than Cole Hamels.  Hmm.

Barry: “Chris Young – Pitcher” – Injury-prone, and not terribly effective outside of PETCO, Alex nabs him for $16, which is quite reasonable.  A lot more than Matt Cain for $24.

Mark: “Chris Young – Outfielder” - Self-nomination. Mark ends up getting Young for $21.  Decent price for a third-tier outfielder – right about where I thought he would be.

Steve: “Dan Uggla” - There he is.  Actually he’s not that bad, though his fielding is awful, we’re at best, ambivalent.  Mark grabs him as well for $19.

Tom: “Rickie Weeks” – Another self-nomination.  Tom gets him for $14, which is probably reasonable.  His infield is complete (along with DH).

Tim: “Edwin Encarnacion” – I’ve always been high on EE, especially since I originally signed him as a minor leaguer (then traded him away).  Mark grabs him as well, for $16.

That round lasted a surprising 34 minutes, our longest round.  After three rounds, it’s time for a money check:

• Andrew: $64 for 8 players
• Alex: $71 for 11 players
• Paul: $72 for 12 players
• Drew: $56 for 15 players (and all 10 pitchers)
• Stan: $54 for 11 players
• Barry: $114 for 15 players
• Mark: $107 for 10 players
• Steve: $59 for 7 players
• Tom: $64 for 8 players
• Tim: $87 for 9 players

Round Four – 2:41 pm

(I didn’t get any players in the fourth round, so I’ll provide abbreviated comments)

• Andrew: “Brett Myers” – Had I stuck to my plan, this is one of the guys I would have targeted.   Still has big potential, and this is his “walk year’ (contract status, not pitching technique).  Tom gets him for $16.  I think that’s a bargain. I was the guy that said “$13″ and “$15″, and after the fact, Tom said he would have said $18, so oh well.
• Alex: “Trevor Hoffman” - Not really interested, plus he’ll be on the DL to start the season.  Alex gets him for $11 – he seems surprised it’s so low.
• Paul: “Pablo Sandoval” - Another favorite of mine, Stan gets him at $14, and plugs him in a catcher.  That’s one way to beat the positional scarcity issue.
• Drew: “Casey Blake” – Barry finally steps up and grabs his second player of the day.  And a decent value as well – a .270/20/80 guy on the Dodgers could have gone for $10.
• Stan: “Aaron Harang” – Another risk/reward pick – he was very good, but he might be broken. I’m in on the bidding up until “$9″ – can’t go any higher.  He goes to Mark for $11.
• Barry: “Javier Vazquez” - This was the other guy to target.  I had him ranked as the seventh-best starter, right behind Billingsley and Harden.  But I have no money (as evidenced by my Myers and Harange losses earlier this round.  Tim gets him for $19.  Gee, Myers and Vazquez for a combined $35.  Sure sounds like my starting pitcher strategy prior to blowing it on Webb.  Dammit.
• Mark: “Francisco Cordero” - Another closer, though this time Steve is finished.  Hersh gets him for a reasonable $16.  Are the days of $40 closers behind us?  Or even $30 closers?
• Steve: “Matt Capps” - Comfortable with his two closers, Steve nominates another.  Tom wins some surprising sprited bidding at $19.  I guess Qualls, Street, and Hanrahan are the only full-time closers left, thus the rush on Capps at the end.
• Tom: “Shane Victorino” - Ah, the Flyin’ Hawaiian.  I hope someone gives him a good home, as he’ll be missed here in Roadrunner land.  I actually was able to bid $22 and $24 before I pulled out.  Steve got him for $30.
• Tim: “John Maine” – Another long-time Roadrunner.  Maine is still not quite right after offseason surgery, and his spring has cooled me off a bit.  He goes to Alex for $8.

Round Four lasted 25 minutes.

Round Five – 3:06pm

Here’s where it all goes downhill . . .

Andrew: “Raul Ibanez”

I actually wanted Ibanez – I had him and Brad Hawpe as listed as pretty even, with Ibanez providing more RBI, and Hawpe more home runs.  Bidding got up to $17 and then it was just Barry and me.  Now the thing with this is that everyone else thinks there’s some sort of higher-level gamesmanship happening whenever Barry and I are in a bidding war.

So of course, Tom mentions, “Ooh, the boys from Phoenix battling it out!”

Please, it’s really not like that.  I don’t think.  Is it?

Several years ago, Barry and I got into a bidding war which ended up with a “good-natured fuck you” battle.  Example:

Barry: $18

Andrew: Fuck you, $19

Barry: Fuck you, $20

Andrew: No, fuck you, $21

Barry: I believe I said, fuck you, $22

etc.

So you can see how this got started.  The problem is that Barry and I both need three outfielders, and the resources are drying up.  Other than Ibanez, the only guys left at his level or above are Corey Hart, Brad Hawpe, and Andre Ethier.  And I’m not a fan of Hart or Ethier, even though I had Hart for the past two seasons, and Ethier is from Chandler – I just don’t believe the hype for a guy who will hit .290 and maybe 20 homers.  And Hart killed me at the end of last season, with his .176 average in August and September.

Andrew: $18

Barry: $19

Andrew: $20

Barry: $21

Andrew: $22

Paul: Who is this schmoe these guys are fighting over?

Barry: $23

Andrew (internal): Ok, that’s the limit you had him pegged for.

Andrew: $24

Barry: $25

Andrew (internal): Screw it, now just get Hawpe.

Barry gets him for $25.

So there were some glances between the two of us, but I thought it was over.

Alex: “Andre Ethier” – Right back at it.  I got bids in for $15, but I wasn’t that interested, and Ethier goes to Mark for $24

Paul: “Joel Hanrahan” – I actually like Hanrahan, but I don’t need a closer.  He goes to Paul for $14.

Drew: “Lastings Milledge” - Drew’s Nationals fetish is almost more blatant than Stan’s Pirate fetish of the early 90’s.  I actually would like Milledge, but I know I need power, and a more consistent batting average, so I think I get in a bid at $14, and then let him go.  Stan gets him for $22, which is just about right.

Stan: “Chad Qualls” – Another closer, and Tim gets him for $12, which is a decent price.  Boy, the closer market isn’t what it once was.  Everyone’s probably realized that saves can be picked up mid-season.  After all, my three closers were all FAAB pickups, and two of them (Wilson and Lindstrom) had been released by the teams that drafted them.

Barry: “Bronson Arroyo” - Blech.  He might be done.  I’m not even considering Arroyo, though I do need a cheap starter.  To show you the super demand for him, Arroyo goes to Mark for $4 – the second single-digit player.

Mark: “Brad Hawpe”

Okay, now we’re talking.  I hold out of bidding until it gets into the late teens, and I jump in with a $19.

It goes around the room again, and Barry bids $22

Andrew: $23

Barry: $24

Stan: Jeez, fellas, here we go again.

Andrew: $25

Andrew (internal): Come on, I need this guy!

Barry: $26

Andrew (internal): Crap!  What’s his problem?  Why are we bidding against each other this time?

Andrew: $27

Barry: $28

Andrew (internal): Bastard!  I let you have Raul Ibanez you son-of-a-bitch!  There’s no one left!  Must . . . get . . .Hawpe!

Andrew: $29 (hangs head)

Well the reaction of the room was unanimous.  Barry “wins” the battle by running me up to $29 on Brad Fucking Hawpe.  The room spins a bit, and I really can’t believe I just blew that big a wad of cash.  Sure Corey Hart was still available, but that was about it, and I still need two more outfielders.

Feeling severely burned, I chalk up Hawpe on my roster.  That leaves me with $35 for 7 players.  I had $64 remaining, and I spent 45% of it on Brad Freaking Hawpe.  He’d better break out and hit 30 homers and bat .290.  Probably not going to happen.

Steve: “Conor Jackson”

A ha!  Here’s someone I can grab – just like Dunn, he’s versatile, and eligible at 1B and OF.  I could put him at corner and still get two outfielders.  He’s all batting average, but hopefully he’ll improve his power.  Maybe he was just tired in the second half last season when he went all of August and September without a home run.  He’s still a good antidote to Adam Dunn, batting average-wise.

Other than Hart, whom I didn’t want to deal with, CoJack was the best-available outfielder, with Milton Bradley, Mike Cameron, Eric Byrnes and Jeremy Hermida next on the list.  Bidding slowed down, and the first “Going once” didn’t generate any additional bids.

I get him for $16, and put him at outfielder for now.

Tom said “Nice job, jumping back in there and shaking Hawpe off.”

Cool.

So that leaves me with $19 for 6 players.  That’s do-able.

Tom: “Corey Hart” - This seems like the other one Barry was waiting for, as he still had plenty of money.  I believe Tim and Barry were bidding against each other, with Hart getting $28. Is Hawpe worth a buck more than Hart?  Probably not.  But the bottom line is that after today, the money means nothing until protected list time, and I needed the guy.

Yep, keep telling yourself that.

Tim: “Tommy Hanson”

Here he is!  The guy I’ve been waiting for.  Tim brought him out WAY too early here.  I had figured I could get him for $3, but was willing to go $5 on him.

I bid $3

Paul bids $4

I bid $5

Drew bids $6

What the hell?

So of course, like all young studs brought out too soon (Kershaw, Lincecum) he ends up going for $10.  To Drew – his first pitcher!  Congrats, Drew – your only pitcher won’t be up in the majors until July at the earliest!

That round lasted 31 minutes. After five rounds, it’s time for a money check:

• Andrew: $19 for 6 players
• Alex: $52 for 9 players
• Paul: $42 for 10 players
• Drew: $46 for 14 players (including 9 pitchers)
• Stan: $18 for 9 players
• Barry: $56 for 12 players
• Mark: $68 for 7 players
• Steve: $29 for 6 players
• Tom: $29 for 6 players
• Tim: $56 for 7 players

[Return to Part One - Strategy, or Part Two - The First Round, or continue to Part Four - A Fistful of Dollar Players]

[click to read Part One - Strategy]

Ok, so now we’re LIVE in Vegas, at the famous Rio Hotel, Casino and Resort. There are six of us here in Room 649 of the Ipanema tower, overlooking the Rio swimming pool. It’s creeping towards 1:00pm local time, and there’s college basketball on the television (muted, of course). Around the room we have yours truly, the Commish, Andrew Flynn, seated at the cafe table/desk, facing north, my right side adjacent to the window. I’m the one with internet access, thanks to the lack of wireless in the room. (really, in this day and age?) Opposite me, “manning” the speakerphone, is Stan Sharik, of the fifth-place Stanimals.

On the couch across from me is Alex Tava, of X-Men on the left, and Tim Nygard, of Misogynistic Padres, on the right. Barry Stahl of The Pi Train occupies the lounge chair in the corner (I have to peer around my laptop screen to see him), and on the bench at the foot of the bed is Tom Ross, of Get Off Kong!

On the phone we have Paul Hershberg, of Shoeless Jews, calling in from home in Louisville, Kentucky. Also dialed in is Steve Sharik (“Cover Zero”) and Mark Ratajczak (newly re-named “Pirate Smokers”), both calling in from their respective homes in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

There’s a few minute delay as Drew Capece, of Goodfellas, of Bowie, Maryland, is having trouble getting on the conference call. Everyone hangs up so Tim can dial in as the host. After a few moments, we’re all online.

The Introduction

As commissioner, I had to give a bit of a preamble to the league – here are the bullet points:

This is our 18th Season since starting from scratch in the 1992 Draft, in my tiny apartment on Madison, watching Christian Laettner make a last-second bucket over Kentucky. First, some announcements:

• Phone numbers for contacting league members have been posted to the board and emailed, in case someone gets disconnected.
• I’ll try to have the rosters inputted into the system sometime later tonight or tomorrow morning.  Several of you have yet to access the system – an email was sent out – please let me know if you need that info again.
• Also keep in mind that we have a new statistics site – OnRoto.com.  Thanks to Mark, who set us up for free.  Plus I think we’re all familiar with the site and the way it works.
• First NL game is Sunday night, April 5th (Atlanta at Philadelphia, 8pm Eastern). Roster moves are due prior to that game for Day 1 and Day 2 (Monday April 6th), which has a full slate of games.
• FAAB is active for Week 1.  FAAB deadline is Midnight Eastern, Monday night, April 6th.  Teams then have 12 hours to make any necessary moves for the Noon Eastern transaction deadline on Tuesday April 7th.
• Lastly, league fees.  Fees should be sent to me before opening day.  Standard $260, plus whatever the portion of the conference call is for those not in attendance in Las Vegas.  I’ll post the address that you can use, or you can send money using a credit card via PayPal, though that requires around a $10 surcharge.

Reminders:

• Nomination order will be in the order of finish from 2008, so it will start with the Atomic Roadrunners and end with Tim
• Starting after round three, we’ll have a money check after every odd round
• Players are allowed two official “hold ups” – if they exceed that the auction will continue
• For those on the phone, please identify yourself when possible while bidding to help reduce confusion.
• We’ll have a 10-minute break between the Major League and Minor League portions of the draft
• Minor League Draft will start with Tim and work up last season’s order of finish until it gets to Atomic Roadrunners, who will have the last selection of each round
• We’ll try to keep the minor league draft moving along – last season we averaged just over 30 seconds per pick, and prior to most picks the “on deck, in the hole” teams will be announced.

With that, we were ready to begin.

Follow the Money

First off, some teams were coming into the draft with a comfortable amount of protections, and some had the bare minimum.  Additionally, several teams had loads of cash to spend, while others would be on a budget straightaway.  Here’s the breakdown:

• Atomic Roadrunners: $98 spent / $162 available for 11 players
• X-Men: $127 spent / $133 available for 14 players
• Shoeless Jews: $117 spent / $143 available for 14 players
• Goodfellas: $112 spent / $148 available for 18 players
• Stanimals: $126 spent / $134 available for 14 players
• The Pi Train: $125 spent / $135 available for 16 players
• Pirate Smokers: $75 spent / $185 available for 14 players
• Cover Zero: $117 spent / $143 available for 10 players
• Get Off Kong!: $106 spent / $154 available for 12 players
• Misogynistic Padres: $75 spent / $185 available for 12 players

The above list is in the order of the 2008 final standings, which will also be the order of nominations for the auction.  I thought I was in pretty good shape, thus the ambitious shopping list.  Pirate Smokers and Misogynistic Padres both had the most money available, and Cover Zero and my Roadrunners also were high up in the dollars per player rankings.

Tim’s team and mine were similar in terms of needs, with Steve and Tom’s teams also being similarly constructed.  We all needed outfielders, Tim needed a few more infielders, but I had them all beat in terms of closers.  Drew’s Goodfellas would provide the most interesting case study, as he had to acquire a full slate of 10 pitchers – no one remembers that ever happening before.

So I guess we’re ready . . .

First Round – 1:15 pm

Andrew: “With the first nomination of the 2009 WBRL draft, I nominate Hanley Ramirez, for $20.”

Crickets.

I wish.

The bidding zoomed right into the high $30’s before it even went dollar-by-dollar.  I got in a bid at $42, which was theoretically my limit, and yet still got another bid of $45 in before I packed it in.  To no one’s surprise, Tim Nygard, purveyor of the “Stars and Scrubs” strategy in so many previous drafts, walked away with Hanley Ramirez at $50.

Fifty.

Crap.

My strategy was falling apart after one player.  I quickly did some mental inflation, and added a bit to the top-tier talent, but only the studs, as values tend to “normalize” pretty quickly after that, historically in our league.  So Johan was back at $38, Webb, Peavy, and Hamels were all $32-$35, Reyes was probably now $42, and Utley was going back to mid-$30’s.  Additionally, the top OF’s (Soriano, Manny, Kemp, Victorino) will likely be $30 or more, along with Prince Fielder.

After some shuffling, I noticed that some of the folks were a bit frazzled by that purchase, or maybe they were adjusting their projections as well.  The last player drafted over $50 was Barry Bonds in 1999, for $53.  Coincidentally, he was also drafted by Tim, who also picked up a $44 Larry Walker, a $44 Kevin Brown, and a $40 Billy Wagner that draft. Next highest guy was $16 Mark Grace – Stars and Scrubs, indeed.

Alex: “Brandon Webb”

Slightly interesting, as Reyes or Johan traditionally would have been the second nomination, but no matter.  Bidding was pretty active, and I managed to say “$25″ as the bidding went dollar-by-dollar at that point.  It seemed to have good momentum when Alex said “$30″, and since I had Webb pegged around $35, I felt no fear of saying “$31″, even though I wasn’t going to get him, as my strategy was to get two lesser pitchers.

Wait.  Why’s everyone looking at me?

Stan, who wasn’t bidding, took over the “Going once, going twice” countdown, a little too early for my taste.

As a sidebar, I think there is a bit of an art in stretching out the dollar values of players.  Saying “Going once” too early will diminish the liklihood of additional bids. Even worse, saying “Going twice”  too quickly after “Going once” will effectively kill any momentum.  So when I’m auctioneer, I tend to say (often) “We have Player X . . . at $17. . . to Hersh . . .Player X . . .” which usually brings out an $18.  Additionally, a “Going once” will bring out the next bid when it gets down to the dollar increments, especially between two bidders. So as I was saying . . .

Stan said “Going twice” and I gave him a panicked look.  I can’t ask the auctioneer to stretch out the timing on someone I’m bidding on, so I quickly scanned the room, and there were no contemplative looks from anyone indicating that a “$32″ was forthcoming.  “Sold!”

Crap, crap, crap.

Okay, I suddenly blew past “acceptance” in my five stages of drafting grief (along with denial and bargaining).  I hovered momentarily at anger, but switched back to stage four – depression.  I just trashed my draft strategy with my first selection.  I didn’t mind getting Webb – I’ve had him the past three seasons (with one Cy Young and two second-place finishes), and $31 is a decent price, but damn, I’m screwed.

What’s worse, half the people in the room looked at me like they knew that would happen, like I was an easy Brandon Webb “mark”.

Worse yet – maybe they were right, and I was living in denial.

Am I that easy to read?  No poker face whatsoever.

Okay then, chalk it up – $31 for Brandon Webb.  My pitching situation is screwed, but hopefully I can recover on the hitting side.  There isn’t really a need to adjust the hitting totals to accomodate for the pitching.  Now instead of two No. 2’s, I’ll just have to get a No. 3.  So I was going to spend $39 on two pitchers – that leaves me $8 for my second guy.

I think we’ll be okay.  I hope so – there are 120 more picks to go, and after five minutes, I’m already in shambles.

Paul: “Chase Utley”

What the hell?  This is infuriating!  Utley was my backup plan for not getting Hanley or Reyes – you can’t nominate him now!

I think I managed to say “$22″ or something, but it was all a bit of a blur, as I was still reeling from the Webb selection.  My whole value system had been rocked again – Hanley should have gone for $45 – he went for $50.  Webb should have gone for $35 – he went for $31.  What was going on?

I’m scrambling, frantically jumping between spreadsheets to record Webb, run some different scenarios, cross Utley off the position list . .  . where’s the bidding?

I can’t stomach bidding on Utley.  I don’t have a strong connection, and I guess I hope he’s injured well into the season (he won’t be), because I really don’t have the enthusiasm to bid, though I really should.

Drew ends up getting him for $36, putting him at middle infield.

Drew: “Garrett Atkins”

And hey, it’s happened.  The proverbial, “You win a player, then it’s your nomination” phenomenon.  Paul ran the numbers – it happens once every 15 or so picks, just about at random.  Oh well.

Another thing is that Drew always seems to nominate “underwhelming” players with his first-round nominations, but of course I can’t substantiate that at all.  It seems that there was someone he nominated fourth or so overall that ended up going for $4 or $5, and then we went back to the studs.  Odd.

Drew drafted Atkins last season, and could have protected him for $30.  Good thing he didn’t, as Atkins has been on a bit of a decline for a while now.

I’m starting to recover from Webb-shock and Utley-upset.  Good thing, too, that I have no interest in Atkins.

Tim gets him for $21.  That’s two of the first four to Tim, and he’s spent $71.  He still has $114.

Stan: “Cole Hamels”

Well, that’s better.  A fellow ace stud, fresh off his widely-televised World Series heroics.  Our league tends to over-value the younger studs, and he’s got potential written all over him.  Since I’m sure to be out of the bidding, I get in a “$20″ just to try to head-fake anyone that’s sure I’m spent on pitching.

After a “$22″, Stan offers a flat “$25″.

Crickets.  For real.

Now I’m a bit miffed.  Hamels should definitely be going for low $30’s, and even if his arm is a bit wobbly, he’s at a minimum the fourth-best starter available in the draft.

Stan gets him for $25.  Shocker.  He looks a little uneasy – I know that look, as I showed it a few picks ago.  Huh.

Curiously, Hamels may be in line for a Webb-like WBRL salary.  Owned as a rookie and protected at $10 for three seasons (just like Webb), his first real auction he goes for $25 (just like Webb).  So I guess in 2012, Hamels will go to Stan for $31, and he’ll be pissed too.

Barry: “Jose Reyes”

Bastard.

Now I’m screwed.  I don’t know if Barry knows my plan or not.  I discussed it obliquely when discussing potential highest-priced players, and who my first nomination would be (Hanley, Reyes, or Johan).  Since I’m defending champ, I’ve known about this first-nomination responsibility since October.  Barry originally owned Reyes as a rookie for $10, and in 2006, he and I ran up the bidding from $31 to $38, which is where I eventually won him.

But fortunately several people are in on the bidding, and it jumps around quickly – almost too quickly – to $40.

Here comes the real conversation between my big fat mouth and my rationale.  See if you can tell who wins.

Andrew’s mouth: “$40″

Rationale: “Okay, good, we can probably go up to $44 without too much damage, but let’s check those Dan Uggla stats while we’re at it.  Maybe Rafael Furcal?”

Others: “$41″, “$42″, “$43″

Andrew’s mouth: “$44″

Rationale: “Good, I think we’re done, here.”

Other: “$45″

Rationale: “Okay, tough break, we’ll let him go . . .”

Andrew’s mouth: “$46″

Rationale: “Um, what are you doing?  Are you crazy?  This ends now!”

Other: “$47″

Rationale: “WALK AWAY! Do not say another . . . ”

Andrew’s mouth: “$48″

Rationale: “WHATTHEHELLAREYOUDOINGAREYOUMAD????”

Stan: “Sold!”

Rationale: “OHMYFUCKINGGOD!  WE’RE BROKE! We have no money for this. Why didn’t you listen? Furcal! Drew! Uggla!  All reasonable!”

Andrew’s mouth: “(sigh) . . . take that!“

Well, there you have it.  My second player.  Following my dream plan.  Didn’t get Hanley, but for only $2 less, I probably don’t have to worry about steals.

I’ve spent $79.  On two players.  That’s 49 percent of my available money.  On two players.  Both of whom were on the squad from 2006-2008.

“I’m getting the band back together.”

What can I say.  The plan is shot to hell, but at least I’ll have “my guys.”

However, I don’t think I’ll be able to afford Shane Victorino, Prince Fielder, or Corey Hart for the family reunion.

Mark: “Manny Ramirez”

Though I should be in on this biding as well, since I need power, and not speedy outfielders so much any more, I once again need to re-group, though it happens more quickly this time.

Bottom line is that I spent $10 more than I projected, and a good $20 more than reasonable on that DH slot, so now it has to come from somewhere.  Alright, so I’ll skip the $30 outfielder and make it two $23 outfielders.  That’s okay – since speed is accounted for with Reyes, the non-speedy outfielders might be more affordable. That’s a $7 savings.  I can’t take anymore from pitching, so perhaps the second OF can be $20 instead of $23.  Okay, sounds like a plan.

Drew gets Manny Ramirez at $32.

That’s seven players, and Tim, Drew and I have six of them.

Steve: “Russell Martin”

Interesting.  Sure, he’ll draw more cash than any other catcher by a good $10, but I’m not sure a catcher run is going to happen at this point.  At the least it reminds me that the catching position is ridiculously thin, so I need to keep track.  I get in a bid at “$12″, apparently because I’m insane, but it’s quickly passed.

Mark ends up getting him for $22, which is probably appropriate.

Tom: “Alfonso Soriano”

Another guy that was on my list, but is now unreachable.  After all, I have $83 for nine players.  The more I look at the situation, the more bummed I am that I won’t be able to be in the bidding on these guys, because it would be gross negligence to go after another.  (Reyes was merely “indulgence” not “negligence”).

Steve gets Soriano for $34

Tim: “Rafael Furcal”

Sure, rub it in my face.  He’ll probably go for mid-$20’s and do very well.  Though he is an injury risk.  I can’t even bid, since my DH spot is filled.  So ho-hum, I’ll sit out the rest of the first round while these guys bid on Furcal, and plan my next nomination.

Stan gets Furcal for $25.  Bingo, on the mark.

First Round Recap:

• Roadrunners: $79 spent – Webb $31, Reyes $48
• Misogynistic Padres: $71 spent – H. Ramirez $50, Atkins $21
• Goodfellas: $68 spent – Utley $36, M. Ramirez $32
• Stanimals: $50 spent – Hamels $25, Furcal $25
• Cover Zero: $34 spent – Alfonso Soriano
• Pirate Smokers: $22 spent – Russell Martin

X-Men, Shoeless Jews, Pi Train, Get Off Kong! not yet on the board.  The first round takes exactly 30 minutes.  It’s sure to pick up the pace in the next few rounds.

[return to Part One - Strategy, or continue to Part Three - Slowly Sinking]