Atomic RoadRunners

This is the final installment of the 2009 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series.  Protected lists are due for submission this Sunday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern.  Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2009:

Chris Coste
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 28 Runs, 0 Steals
Coste was a great pickup with incumbent Carlos Ruiz struggling. Although a heavier workload brought down the average later in the season (when he had been replaced by Pablo Sandoval on the AaRr squad), he did an admirable job. The Phillies also brought in Ronny Paulino from the Pirates, so Coste’s security might be in jeopardy.

Gregor Blanco
2 Years – $5
.251 Average, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 52 Runs, 13 Steals
Blanco was a 7th-round minor league pick, though he really wasn’t much of a prospect. He did pretty well in spring training, and won at-bats from Matt Diaz (injured), Josh Anderson (sent to AAA) and the oft-injured (and then traded) Mark Kotsay. However, other than average (which fell his second time through the NL) and the occasional steal, he didn’t seem to do much, though his totals in the counting stats look decent. With some high-profile OF prospects coming up soon, there isn’t much certainty in Blanco’s world right now.

Brett Myers
2 Years – $31
10-13, 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 163 K’s
Myers was supposed to be my top-tier pitching acquisition, but he had a horrible first half, was sent down to AAA for three weeks, and then came back and pitched like a decent No. 2 starter. He kept up the strikeouts, but also walked more than expected. Apparently he needed a full year to get used to the move back from the bullpen, where the Phillies had him closing for 2007 before the Brad Lidge acquisition. He’ll be a decent starter in 2009, but not for $31 – that’s bollocks.

Jason Marquis
2 Years – $10
11-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 91 K’s
Marquis was a minor league selection as a fill-in starter. He wasn’t very good, and I didn’t activate him very often, but he lasted the year, which is more than many other pitchers can say. He had a bit of a hot streak in July and August, and we rode him for that. He was traded to Colorado, so that can’t possibly be good for his numbers.

Tony Pena
2 Years – $3
3-2, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 52 K’s and 3 saves
Pena was won at auction as a “handcuff” for the then-protected Brandon Lyon. This was after it was announced that Chad Qualls would handle the 7th inning, Pena the eighth, and Lyon the ninth. Pena didn’t do as well as his 2007 numbers, and he never had the chance to close, especially after the Diamondbacks acquired Jon Rauch. While Pena will be a decent set-up man, Qualls is the closer going into 2009.

Noah Lowry
2 Years – $1
– did not pitch –
Lowry was a transaction deadline pickup viewed exclusively for 2009. Injured in spring training, he had two surgeries on his throwing arm, and further complications in October pretty much killed any enthusiasm for protecting him. Plus, I think we’ve seen his peak three years ago, and he never had good stuff, for that matter.

Today we have the fourth installment in the my series of Protected List columns – The Fringe. These guys could go either way, with a lot of factors ultimately determining whether they make the cut. Here goes:

Blake DeWitt
2 Years – $5
.264 Average, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 45 Runs, 3 Steals
Nice pickup in week one. DeWitt was the fourth 3B on the Dodgers’ depth chart to start the season, behind Nomar Garciaparra, Andy LaRoche, and Tony Abreu. However injuries to the other three kept DeWitt starting, save for a few days in May. The deadline acquisition of Casey Blake ended the party only for a week, as DeWitt was then moved across the diamond to fill in for Jeff Kent. All indications have DeWitt as the starting 2B for 2009 for the Dodgers, with the Mark Loretta signing only providing a platoon partner against tough lefties. If he was still a 3B, then he wouldn’t be protected, but he’s adequate at 2B, and should earn his $5 keep. Should.

Verdict: Protect

Jody Gerut
2 Years – $5
.296 Average, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 46 Runs, 6 Steals
I had tracked Gerut through spring training, and picked him up once he was called up in May, after Jim Edmonds was dismissed from the Padres. He did really well, including a hot 7-homer August, but then missed most of September with a strained ligament in his finger on a stolen base attempt – leaving him unable to swing a bat. Padres manager Bud Black has already indicated that Gerut would be the starting center fielder. With more playing time, those counting numbers should increase. Worth $5.

Verdict: Protect

Chris Dickerson
2 Years – $5
.304 Average, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 20 Runs, 5 Steals
Dickerson was a flier pickup at the deadline, originally for a few extra steals. He was activated when Gerut went down with an injury for the Roadrunners. Dickerson exceeded all expectations, contributing the above stats in only 102 at-bats. This was the toughest decision for the final spot on the 2009 Roadrunners. Here are some additional projections and comments:

SOURCE        AVG    R     HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
BP Pecota    .247    63    15   50    17
Shandler     .243    53    12   42    19
Lindy's      .275    81    10   60    14
Fanball      .253    41    8    25    12
Marcel       .282    36    9    31    6
CBS Sports   .278    65    7    41    14
------------------------------------------

Average:     .263    56    10   41    14

Those are some very Mike Cameron-lite projections. The speed and athleticism doesn’t bother me, but boy, does that projected average, especially for someone that is “old” for a rookie and never really broke out in the minors.

Here’s a quote from Chris Bracke, associate editor of Fanball Magazine:

I admit I bought into him last year mostly in an attempt to pick up a couple extra steals, but I believe his inability to make consistent contact will make him too much of a liability in the batting average department. The comp I believe people should keep in mind when considering the potential for Dickerson this season is Michael Bourn. And if that didn’t make you just throw up in your mouth, I don’t know what will.

Exactly.

Plus, the Reds then signed Willy Taveras to play CF, pushing Dickerson (who held his own in CF) over to left field, potentially in a platoon with Norris Hopper.  Okay, fine.  Then then Reds signed BOTH Jacques Jones and Johnny Gomes to minor-league deals with spring training NRI’s, which further informs me that Dickerson is now one of four competing for the LF spot.  So now he’s a talented 4th outfielder (don’t ask me who the #3 is), and that’s not worth $5, not with that kind of uncertainty.  We’ll see how spring training goes, and may bid accordingly.

Verdict: Release

Today is the third installment in the 2009 Atomic Roadrunner protected list preview. We’ve already identified nine players that are keepers, now we’re moving on to “The Probables” – guys that it makes sense to protect, are generally a good value, but wouldn’t be shielded from expansion, if you know what I mean. Here’s the breakdown:

Todd Wellemeyer
2 Years – $5
13-9, 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 134 K’s
Nice pickup in week two. Wellemeyer received the benefit of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, who was able to stretch out the career reliever. He had some rough spots in June and July as he fought through some elbow soreness, but he is a serviceable #3/#4 starter. Good for $5, obviously.

Mat Gamel
3 Years – $5 (Minors)
.329 Average, 19 HR, 96 RBI, 96 Runs (Double-A Stats)
Gamel is one of the top Brewers prospects, and he had a tremendous season at Double-A, even though he slumped in August and September as he was moved up to AAA and a September call-up to Milwaukee. It was later revealed that he had some elbow soreness that was affecting his swing. His defense is a question mark, but he may be called up in May a-la Ryan Braun two seasons ago. Right now the Brewers are creating a Bill Hall / Mike Lamb platoon at 3B.

Chase Headley
2 Years – $5
.269 Average, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 34 Runs, and 4 steals
Last year, Headley was essentially where Mat Gamel was last season. The Double-A MVP in 2007, he was picked up, did well in spring training, was sent down, and was called up in early June. Headley, however, is a solid defender at the hot corner, but was moved to OF due to the presence of Kevin Kouzmanoff, who can’t play anywhere else. With more AB’s and confidence, Headley should improve his average and his counting stats.

Yesterday we started off our upcoming protected list preview with the No Doubters. The good news is that there were five, so the 2009 Roadrunners look to be off to a good start. Here’s a look at the next group – the “Almost Automatics”. These guys would be No Doubters except for one or two chinks in the armor. Here’s the breakdown:

Chipper Jones
1 Year – $23
.364 Average, 82 Runs, 22 HR, 75 RBI, and 4 steals
Chipper enjoyed a very strong first half, batting over .400 into late May, and ended up winning the NL batting title. Injuries took effect in the second half, and he missed the majority of September, save for pinch hitting duties. He was an All-Star, and led the NL in batting, On-Base percentage, and was 12th in the MVP voting, which was partially due to the Braves’ fade in the standings. The dings against him are his age coming into 2009 (37) and that he’ll likely have a few DL stints. He’s actually moved up in the NL 3B rankings, as Garrett Atkins and Aramis Ramirez disappointed in 2008.

Brian Wilson
1 Years – $10
3-2, 41 Saves, 67 K’s, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
All-Star selection and finished 2nd in the NL in saves behind Jose Valverde. Not that great a pitcher, statistically speaking, but was the go-to guy. No other options were around, but now there’s an improved bullpen backing him up.

Mike Gonzalez
2 Years – $5
0-3, 14 Saves, 44 K’s, 4.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Picked up in April, he ascended to the closers role mid-season, but unfortunately the Braves lacked save opportunites down the stretch. Good bet for $5.

Matt Lindstrom
2 Years – $10
3-3, 5 Saves, 43 K’s, 3.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Was given the closing opportunity late in the year due to Kevin Gregg’s injury, and did quite well – well enough to have the Marlins trade Greeg to the Cubs.

With protected rosters due in six days, it’s time to review the options for the 2009 Roadrunners. As I did last season, I’ve broken the list into five groups:

• The No Doubters
• The Almost Automatics
• The Probables
• The Fringe
• Not So Much

These should be self-explanatory. First up, the No Doubters:

Tim Lincecum
1 Year – $7
18 Wins, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 265 K’s
Seabiscuit was ridden hard by Manager Bruce Bochy, wrapping up a Cy Young award and an All-Star appearance. He was first in strikeouts, K/9, hits/9, shutouts, and wild pitches. He was 2nd in ERA, Wins, and won-loss percentage. For $7.

Ryan Theriot
1 Year – $1
.307 Average, 85 Runs, 1 HR, 38 RBI, and 22 steals
Theriot again earned his salary with the high average and runs, and 22 steals were nice as well, though he was caught 13 times. Gained 50 points of average to offset 6 fewer steals and 2 fewer homers.

Brandon Phillips
1 Year – $16
.261 Average, 80 Runs, 21 HR, 78 RBI and 23 steals
Considered a “down” year for Phillips, he didn’t match his 2007 30/30 totals, but still was possibly the second-best 2B after Chase Utley. 20/20 is still very nice, but the drop in AVG and batting cleanup are both concerns.

Chris Iannetta
2 Years – $1
.264 Average, 50 Runs, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 0 Steals
Iannetta finally broke-out in his second season, stealing playing time away from the presumptive starter Yorvit Torrealba to start in 104 games. With additional playing time, counting stats should improve, but the average is a problem. Still, for $1, he’s the 4th or 5th-best catcher in the NL.

Josh Johnson
2 Years – $5
7 Wins, 3.61 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 77 K’s
Picked up mid-season as he came back from Tommy John surgery, Johnson went 7-1 in 14 starts, with 77K’s in 87 innings. Better yet, reports indicate that he gained 2-3 mph on his fastball. Very good for $5.

Chipper Jones is hoping to receive a contract extension from the Braves sometime in the near future, the Braves’ official website reports. Jones and general manager Frank Wren have not discussed a new deal since September; so though Jones says he is not worried, it’s understandable that he’s getting anxious. (Rotowire)

According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds are likely “going to give Chris Dickerson every chance to win at least the left-handed part of a platoon” in left field. “If we started right now, it would probably be a platoon situation with him and a right-handed bat, whether it’s [Jonny] Gomes or Jerry [Hairston Jr.],” manager Dusty Baker said. Dickerson played way over his head in a 31-game stint with the Reds last season, but is capable of producing 10-15 homers and 20-plus steals in regular playing time. (Rotoworld)

The Detroit Tigers signed RHP Brandon Lyon, who had been with the Diamondbacks, to a one-year, $4.25 million contract. He can earn an extra $500,000 in incentives. Lyon becomes the favorite to close for the Tigers over Fernando Rodney. The Cardinals will have to keep looking elsewhere after losing out on another target. Perhaps they’ll re-sign Jason Isringhausen or take a chance on a rehabbing Akinori Otsuka.

Lyon should be the clear favorite to close over Fernando Rodney. Neither was really any good last year, but Lyon has the better track record and is the more durable of the two. Ideally, Joel Zumaya would step up and push both into setup roles by June or July.

Agent Barry Meister said previously that Lyon had a two-year, $9 million deal on the table. If he indeed signs with Detroit, Lyon will compete with Fernando Rodney for closing duties. The Cardinals are said to be the other finalists for his services. (Rotowire)

Lyon will have a chance to earn the closing role in Detroit this spring. “He was not promised the closer’s job,” GM Dave Dombrowski said. “He thinks he’s going to win the job and that’s why he wanted to come here.” (Rotoworld)

It was thought that if Lyon signed with the Cardinals to be the closer in 2009, the Atomic Roadrunners would protect him as the 15th man – and fourth closer on the staff, joining the Braves’ Mike Gonzalez, the Marlins’ Matt Lindstrom, and the Giants’ Brian Wilson.

Chris Iannetta Iannetta has accepted an invitation from Team USA to play in the World Baseball Classic, the Denver Post reports. Iannetta burst onto the scene in 2006, struggled in 2007, and followed it with a breakout season. While his .261 batting average in 2008 left much to be desired, his .895 OPS ranked second in the National League among catchers with at least 333 at-bats. He also set the record for a Rockies catcher with 18 home runs and 66 RBI. However, Iannetta has never played an entire season, and there are questions regarding his durability. A lengthy tenure in the WBC, coupled with the atmosphere in Denver, could fatigue him earlier in the MLB season than anticipated. (Rotowire)

Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom has accepted an invitation to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. “It’s huge,” said Lindstrom. “You play for your country. We want to show everyone we still have the best talent in the world.” He went 3-3 last season with a 3.14 ERA in 66 appearances. Other Marlins taking part in the tournament include Hanley Ramirez (Dominican Republic), Rick Vandenhurk (Netherlands), Renyel Pinto (Venezuela), Jorge Cantu (Mexico) and Alfredo Amezaga (Mexico). (Rotoworld)

Rockies acquired RHP Jason Marquis from the Cubs for RHP Luis Vizcaino and cash. The Rockies get more expensive, taking on $5 million even after the $875,000 payout from the Cubs, but time will tell if they’re actually any better. The arrival of Marquis would appear to knock either Greg Smith or Jorge De La Rosa out of the rotation. Odds are that De La Rosa will go to the pen, but he was a lot better than Marquis down the stretch last year. Meanwhile, Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales get dropped further down the depth chart. Supposedly, the Rockies are still interested in adding Tim Redding even after this move. However, he’s totally unnecessary at this point. The Cubs are taking a $4 million commitment here, as Vizcaino is due $3.5 million in 2009 and then either $4 million or a $500,000 buyout in 2010. He could always bounce back and prove to be a useful reliever for the Cubs, but if it comes down to him or Michael Wuertz for one spot in the pen, we’d take Wuertz. (Rotoworld)