Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

Does RotoProfessor have the same roster as the Roadrunners? Anyway, Josh Johnson gave the Roadrunners a boost after returning mid-season from a year-long absence due to surgery. Johnson won 7 games and lost only one, and racked up strikeouts, apparently exhibiting more velocity than in previous seasons, perhaps due to the surgery. Here’s RotoProfessor’s take:

A fourth round draft pick of the Marlins in 2002, Josh Johnson returned from Tommy John Surgery this season to pitch significantly better then anyone could have expected. Having made only 4 starts in 2007 prior to being shut down, he returned to the major leagues on July 10 and instantly made an impact. No, it wasn’t all rays of sunshine, as he had his ups and downs, but overall he has certainly given owners hope heading into 2009.

His final numbers for ‘08 were:

7 Wins
3.61 ERA
1.35 WHIP
77 Strikeouts (7.94 K/9)
27 Walks (2.78 BB/9)
91 Hits
.332 BABIP
.270 Batting Average Against
87.1 Innings

The walks were certainly the biggest surprise, as he had never been that type of control pitcher prior to his injury. In 2006, over 157 innings, he walked 68 batters, a BB/9 of 3.90. The question is, which is the real Johnson?

There’s no doubt that he has talent, being ranked the Marlins third best prospect back in 2006. Still, at Double A in ‘05 prior to his recall he had walked 3.22 batters per 9 innings, so I find it a little bit hard to believe that after the surgery he suddenly found the strike zone. Just look at Francisco Liriano’s numbers for proof.

The strikeouts are a number that I could see him continuing, or at least coming pretty close to. It’s along the lines of what he did at Double A in ‘05, which helped to put him on the map (7.28 K/9). Obviously it’s not among the elite in the league, so don’t grab him thinking that he will buoy your team in strikeouts. Still, he’s obviously a pitcher that will chip in and help your cause in K’s.

It’s questionable how good the Marlins are going to be, especially given the moves they’ve already made. Top players like Scott Olsen, Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham have already been shipped out of town, replaced with prospects and middle relievers. Yeah, they aren’t the top players on the team, but they were pieces that were counted on and replacing them is not going to be easy. It also makes owners wonder who may be the next sent packing, meaning that the Marlins could again be going through a full rebuilding.

That makes it nearly impossible to guess the number of wins that Johnson could accumulate. Still, it would be a surprise if he didn’t at least reach double-digits, though I wouldn’t count on 15 or more.

Let’s see exactly what I am looking at from him this season:

168.0 IP, 10 W, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 146 K (7.82 K/9), 62 BB (3.32 BB/9)

Yes, I see him as a usable option in ‘09, but I just don’t see him becoming one of the elite stars of the game. That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the talent to get there, and I think he will show signs of taking that step, but 2010 seems like the year he could fully emerge to me.

Happy Thanksgiving! While news has slowed due to the holiday weekend and upcoming Winter Meetings (starting December 8th), here’s the latest in nifty bullet-point format:

• Mark Teixeira: Top suitors are the Angels and Red Sox, with the Yankees, Orioles, and Nationals considerably farther behind. Teixeira is a Maryland native, explaining the O’s and Nat’s interest.
• Casey Blake: The Twins look like the top suitor, followed by the Indians. A deal with the Twins looked close to being finalized, but the Twinkies are likely waiting for the arbitration deadline to pass.
• Brandon Phillips: With Chase Utley slated to miss (at a minimum) all of Spring Training, and potentially the first half of the season recovering from hip surgery, Phillips’ value gets a boost, making him a stronger protection.
• Chris Dickerson: The Reds have been mentioned in several trade scenarios, but a few different reports have them chasing after the Rockies’ Willy Taveras, as the Reds aren’t necessarily sold on Dickerson as a center fielder. He probably doesn’t have the bat for a corner, making him a bench option.
• Jason Marquis may be on the market, as the Cubs try to line up cash and roster openings for a run at Jake Peavy. Peavy would give the Cubs a starting rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Peavy, newly re-signed Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden.
• Brandon Moss (knee) should be ready “if not opening day, then soon thereafter,” said GM Neil Huntington. Moss had knee surgery last month and is facing 4-6 months of recovery time. “There’s nothing that tells us he won’t be ready Opening Day,” Huntington said. (Rotoworld)
• Brandon Lyon: The market for free-agent reliever Lyon isn’t likely to be settled until the major free agents find homes. Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, along with trade candidate Houston Street are all in greater demand, as well are some of the lefty specialists. Latest rumors had Lyon considering Detroit or returning in a set-up role in Arizona.

General manager Brian Sabean said he plans on using Pablo Sandoval as the Giants’ primary third baseman in 2009, the San Jose Mercury News reports. It was thought that the Giants may have been interested in bringing in a third baseman via free agency or trade, but Sabean would rather use a guy from inside the organization. He hit .345/.357/.490 in limited time last year, and his likely catcher eligibility (11 games there last year) should enhance his sleeper status. (Rotowire)

Brewers OF Corey Hart put up solid numbers again this season, but his late-summer swoon really took the shine off another 20/20 season. Hart would have saved everyone some trouble if he had been on the DL in September, as he certainly didn’t help the Brewers’ playoff push. RotoProfessor has a breakdown of Hart:

The Milwaukee Brewers have a ton of offense, with much of the attention rightfully going to Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. They have another key player in Corey Hart who deserves a ton of respect, though rarely is it thrown his way. Let’s take a look at the numbers he posted last season:

612 AB
.268 AVG (155 H)
20 HR
91 RBI
76 R
23 SB
.298 BABIP
.300 OBP
.459 SLG

Those numbers were down from what he posted in 2007, but it was his second consecutive 20/20 campaign, having hit 24 HR and stolen 23 bases the prior season. That is the type of OF’er that fantasy owners should be looking for as a #2 or 3, because he has the potential to help you across the board.

Yes, his 2008 average was down a little bit, but that could be credited to an awful close to the season. In 98 AB’s in September, Hart managed to hit just .173, a number that certainly dragged down his overall performance. Prior to the All-Star Break he was hitting .289, showing how productive he could be.

He also failed to hit a HR in September, meaning that it was a completely lost month. In 2007 he hit .330 with 6 HR over the final month of the season, so it certainly isn’t a trend for him to fold down the stretch. I would expect him to hit for a little bit more power over the course of the full season, assuming he doesn’t have another outage.

I know with his speed you’d like to see him score a few more runs, but he hits primarily fifth, behind Braun and Fielder. That gives him plenty of chances to drive in runs (which he did), but it is going to limit his potential to score them. The mid-80’s may be his limit, unless the Brewers really add a ton of offensive talent behind him.

He’ll also turn that magical age of 27, a season in which a lot of people look for players to have huge offensive breakouts. Obviously it’s no guarantee, but it is definitely something worth considering.

Let’s take a look at what I would expect from him in ‘09:

.288 (168-584), 28 HR, 93 RBI, 82 R, 23 SB, .308 BABIP, .332 OBP, .526 SLG

Basically, what I’m projecting is more of the same from Hart, with an improved batting average and power stroke. Given the collapse of last season, I don’t think this is unreasonable at all. So, if owners in your league opt to ignore him, given his overall numbers last season, do not hesitate to snatch him up. He’s a great option in all formats, and one cold stretch shouldn’t change that at all.

There was a time that he would have been put in the conversation when people were debating over Alex Rios, Curtis Granderson and Nick Markakis. Things have changed after he folded last season, and now he can be had rounds later (possibly as many as 3). That certainly makes him a great value pick, since he has the talent and potential to outperform the others in ‘09. Considering where he’s getting drafted he’s not a breakout player, but he certainly has a chance to outperform all projections.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III has heard that Twins might make a contract proposal to Casey Blake as soon as next week. Blake served brief stints with the Twins in 2000, ‘01 and ‘02 before establishing himself in Cleveland the following season. Now he could return to the team on his biggest contract yet at an age in which he should be entering the twilight of his career (he turned 35 in August). There are several other teams interested, though. (Rotoworld)

Cubs acquired RHP Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for RHP Jose Ceda. Gregg has 61 saves the last two years, but he’s hardly a dominant reliever and he’s looking at a salary of around $4 million for next season. If the Marlins were only going to move one of their arbitration-eligible players this winter, he should have been the one to go. Of course, he’s actually the fourth. The Marlins figure to replace him with Matt Lindstrom, though if a rehabbing veteran wants to sign cheap (Jason Isringhausen?), some sort of competition could be set up. The Cubs should use Gregg in the seventh or eighth inning, regardless of whether Kerry Wood re-signs. (Rotoworld)

Although comments in the past suggested otherwise, agent Rick Thurman said Tim Lincecum hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a long-term deal with the Giants. “I never draw a line in the sand,” he said. “If it’s something they’re interested in pursuing, an appropriate proposal, it’s something we’ll consider. And if not, that’s great, too.” Lincecum believes he can make considerably more going year to year with the Giants. However, if the team’s plan is to continue have him contend for the major league lead in pitches thrown every year, Lincecum might be smart to take the money while he can get it. (Rotoworld)

Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young Award by a comfortable margin Tuesday, taking home pitching’s highest honor in his second major league season. The slender kid with the whirling windup joined Mike McCormick (1967) as the only San Francisco Giants pitchers to win a Cy Young. Lincecum received 23 of 32 first-place votes and 137 points in balloting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks got four first-place votes and finished second with 73 points. “I was definitely surprised. I thought it was going to be a lot closer,” Lincecum said on a conference call. Lincecum led the NL in winning percentage (.783), ranked second in ERA and was third with 227 innings.

Listed at 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds, tiny by today’s standards for a big league pitcher, Lincecum defied detractors — and the laws of physics — by firing 97 mph fastballs past one hulking slugger after another. The 24-year-old right-hander was 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a major league-best 265 strikeouts, remarkable numbers for a fourth-place team that finished 72-90. “People have been doubting me my whole life,” he said. “I don’t let them bring me down.” Consider him arguably the No. 1 pitcher to target in Fantasy on Draft Day. We keep Johan Santana No. 1 still, because of the top contender with a great offense he pitches for, but Lincecum has a ton of upside and far more strikeout potential.

Webb, the NL winner in 2006, was runner-up for the second consecutive season after going 22-7 with a 3.30 ERA in 226 2/3 innings. Consider him one of the top five Fantasy starting pitchers to target on Draft Day. (CBS Sports)

Here are the results:

Pitcher, Club      1st  2nd  3rd  Points
Tim Lincecum, SF    23   7    1    137
Brandon Webb, AZ     4  15    8     73
Johan Santana, NYM   4   8   11     55
Brad Lidge, PHIL         1    7     10
CC Sabathia, MIL     1   1    1      9
Ryan Dempster, CHI            4      4

Here’s ESPN’s take, featuring a dismissive Peter Gammons, who may be past his prime:

And here’s ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian:

As Jim McLennan over at the AZ Snakepit wrote:

I can’t really argue with the top three, though it seems somebody can - one writer opted to leave Lincecum off his ballot entirely. Mind you, five chose to dump Webb too. I suspect it may have been the same idiot who voted for Sabathia as number one, and likely also for someone who threw less than seventy innings, in Brad Lidge. Lidge threw more innings, with a better ERA and an OBA twenty-four points lower, in 2004, and got only a single third-place vote, because he didn’t have the gaudy saves to show for it.

[Edit. I was wrong. It was actually a former Giants season-ticket holder, Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times, whose ballot apparently went Webb, Santana, Lidge. His reasoning was: "I thought Webb's victories (22) stood out to me more than anything, and Lincecum didn't have the victories. Twenty victories was a big deal. We had a stretch there where no one was hitting 20." A mob with pitchforks and torches is leaving San Francisco for Chicago as we speak]

Webb’s second-place could theoretically end up costing the team more money down the road, as the buyout for the team option year (2010) goes up by half a million dollars, each time Webb finishes in the top five for Cy Young voting. With three consecutive top two finishes, the buyout now sits at two million, though it would currently seem like insanity for any team to use that, rather than paying Webb $8.5m to pitch in 2010.

Herr Rotoprofessor has a Quick Hit piece today discussing Brandon Phillips, how his 2008 was, and what to expect in 2009:

I could sit here and sing the praises of the Reds Brandon Phillips as one of the top second baseman in all of baseball and it would be justified.  He is coming off an injury-shortened season (559 AB) where he hit .262 with 21 HR, 78 RBI, 80 R and 23 SB.  The problem is that 2008 was actually a disappointment, especially considering he went 30/30 with a .288 average in 2007.

The loss of Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn could be part of the reason for his decline, as he had hit .280 with 15 HR and 19 SB prior to the All-Star Break.  The truth is that after they were dealt away, a lot more pressure was put onto him as being “the man” in the line-up.  Yes, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce were there to support him, but they were rookies.  Teams were obviously going to look to make them beat them, as opposed to giving Phillips the opportunity to be the determining factor in the game.

August was by far his worst month in 2008, hitting just .212 in 104 AB.  Yes, he had some power, but you expect a significantly better average from a player who would one of the centerpieces of your fantasy offense.

I’m not sure what the Reds are going to add this off-season, but the maturation of both Votto & Bruce will offer Phillips increased protection.  That will allow him, hitting primarily in the cleanup spot once again, to get back to the type of production that owners are expecting.  It will also allow him to get back to scoring some runs, though batting cleanup I don’t think he’ll get back to the 100 R plateau as he did in 2007.

Let’s take a look at the numbers I’d expect from him:

654 AB, .287, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 91 R, 29 SB .307 BABIP (105 K, 42 BB), .335 OBP, .480 SLG

It’s tough to project someone as a 30/30 player, but I’m coming pretty close here with Phillips.  Obviously, no matter whom the Reds bring in, I think Phillips is going to return to the form that he had in 2007.  He’s a Top 3 player at his position, right there with Chase Utley & Ian Kinsler.  He’s a great pick in all formats, to say the least.

The Twins have expressed interest in free agent third baseman Casey Blake. Blake’s agent, Jim McDowell, said six other teams have also called about his client. Blake hit .274 with 21 dingers and 81 RBI in 2008. Minnesota is seeking an upgrade at third base and the Dodgers may want him to return after stabilizing the position after his trade to the NL. His agent is reportedly seeking a three-year deal, so he won’t come cheap. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

The Hardball Times did some analysis of Brett Myers’ split-personality season, and came to some interesting conclusions, which aren’t all bad:

Brett Myers started three games for the Phillies in the postseason and his team won each time. This was a far cry from the way Myers was pitching before the Phillies sent him to Triple-A at the beginning of July. In his first 17 starts of the season, he posted an ugly 5.84 ERA, with some poor peripherals showing this wasn’t a fluke.

After a few weeks in the minors, Myers was called up and pitched much better, posting a 3.49 ERA with a significantly better walk rate in his 14 starts down the stretch. What did Myers change that made such a difference? Many times you hear a manager say that a pitcher needs to work on a few things, but what really is going on? I’ll shed some light on what Myers was working on and how his stuff changed in his return.

Let’s start with an overview of Brett Myers’ repertoire. Myers is one of the few pitchers in the big leagues who throws (at least) five pitches frequently: four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curve and change-up. Here is a look at his movement chart.

Myers’ fastball is very over-the-top, with little horizontal movement but good “rise.” When he is right, he is throwing this pitch in the lower to mid 90s. He also throws a sinker that has better horizontal movement than it actually sinks and he throws this pitch in the upper 80s, touching 90 on the gun.

While Myers’ fastball returned to form after his trip to Triple-A, what really made the difference for him was how he used his pitches. His slider, which doesn’t have great movement, took a back seat to his curve ball, which is an excellent pitch, especially in strikeout situations. While he was a threat to throw any of his five pitches on any count before going to the minors, he kept the ball moving away from batters upon returning.

While hitters had a better idea of what Myers might throw, he was able to beat them with his stuff because he was using his pitches better. By keeping the ball moving away from hitters, he kept them off balance and unable to square him up.

The Tigers have shown some initial interest in Lyon, the MLB.com Hot Stove Blog reports. The Tigers have also shown interest in former Nationals closer Chad Cordero as well. The Tigers are looking for some short term bullpen help as the team has 2008 first-round draft pick Ryan Perry as their closer of the future, and Joel Zumaya could work his way back in to the running for the closing gig if he can stay healthy. (Rotowire)

Agent Jonathan Maurer said Wednesday that he expects the Diamondbacks to re-initiate contract talks with Brandon Webb this offseason. However, Maurer said that the $54 million extension Arizona previously had on the table “wouldn’t work today.” He also suggested that the Diamondbacks may look to trade Webb if they can’t work out a deal, but the two sides were on the verge of an agreement just a few months ago and he’s under the team’s control through 2010. No reason was given for the last-minute change of course during the season, but Webb could win his second Cy Young award in three years after an excellent 2008 season. Webb’s productivity over the last three seasons could command an annual salary in the $18-20 million range, ultimately pricing him out of the D-Backs’ plans given the number of young players they’ll eventually need to commit to. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

The Reds activated Phillips (finger) from the 60-day DL on Friday. He should be fine for spring training and is expected to serve as the Reds’ starting second baseman in 2009. (Rotowire)

Here’s a rundown of Roadrunner rumors during this week’s General Manager Meetings in Dana Point, CA.:

• Brandon Lyon is open to pitching in Colorado.

• According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the Diamondbacks haven’t talked contract with Brandon Webb’s agent, Jonathan Maurer, since the team pulled out of a June near-agreement for three years and $54MM. Maurer expects to hear from the D’Backs this winter, but the price has gone up. Webb isn’t looking to set any records, but he’s well under-compensated on his current deal (which runs through 2010). ESPN’s Buster Olney heard a four-year, $80MM extension would probably suffice, but it’s not known whether the D’Backs will do that. Maurer wonders if they’ll look to trade Webb if contract talks break down.

• According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Nationals are preparing to make a significant offer to Mark Teixeira. Olney believes the Angels will make an offer in the $100-120MM range, but that offer will expire soon. If and when Scott Boras passes on that proposal, it might be the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals, and Orioles competing for Tex.

• GM Ruben Amaro Jr. had an informal five-minute talk with Casey Close, who represents Ryan Howard and Joe Blanton.
• Larry LaRue says the Angels are hinting they can afford both Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia.  The Yankees could afford it, too.
• The Angels have not yet made an offer to Mark Teixeira, but they’ll deal with that situation before moving on to other needs.  Boras is suggesting Teixeira pays for himself.
• Ken Rosenthal has an Angels update: If they are to sign Mark Teixeira, the Angels would like to do it quickly.  However, it’s Scott Boras’ custom to let the market develop until late December or so.  It’s possible the Angels change gears on November 14th.  There are other big names to pursue, though none fit as perfectly as Tex.

• MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert talked to Brandon Lyon’s agent Barry Meister, who said his client would be open to closing or an eighth inning role.  Lyon would be thrilled to return to the D’Backs, but they don’t figure to match a multiyear offer.  More likely, they offer arbitration but let him leave. Lyon, 29, posted a 4.70 ERA in 59.1 innings this year.  His command was strong, possibly indicating better times ahead.

• In the Cubs’ scramble to land Jake Peavy via trade and to re-sign Ryan Dempster, Ken Rosenthal reports that several players may have to be traded to reduce payroll, including Jason Marquis.
• The Rangers may look at outside options for third base, and they’ve been in touch with Casey Blake’s agent.