Atomic RoadRunners

Mark Teixeira has officially filed for free agency. He’ll be the big tuna on the free-agent market this winter, while plenty of teams with large payrolls will be ready to open up the checkbook for the slugging first baseman. It’s believed that he’ll command as much as $20 million per season, so Teixera will have limited options. (Rotowire)

Player             AVG   R   HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
Victorino, Shane   .250  0    0    2     0

All things being equal, Phillies starter Brett Myers is glad they are facing the Rays in the World Series, as SportsbyBrooks explains:

Most players have that stock answer ready when you ask them “so, who would you rather play in the next round of the playoffs?” It’s usually something along the lines of “we’ll take either team, we’re confident either way,” yadda yadda. Well, it seems nobody asked Brett Myers this question when the Phillies won the NLCS, because he definitely had a real opinion.

In an astonishingly revealing interview published today, Myers says that he really, really didn’t want to play the Red Sox in the World Series, and if they did, he was going to ask Charlie Manuel if it was OK that he not pitch at Fenway Park. You see, Boston is where Myers had his little domestic violence dust-up a couple of years ago, and the whole experience still has him shaken up. It’s just probably better not to announce it to the world, there, Brett. I’m sure opposing fans everywhere are going to take it easy on you from now on.

USA TODAY’s national baseball writer Bob Nightengale tries to paint Myers as a rough-around-the-edges guy who quietly does a lot for the community and all that. But it’s Myers who brings some of his own past transgressions into the spotlight:

“I know there are people out there that think I’m a jerk. There are people out there who think I’m a wife-beater. That will never change…But you know what, I really don’t care what people think about me. If people don’t like me, they can deal with it. This is who I am.”

If anything, he should’ve just stopped there. But no, it soon became weepy time:

Myers lowers his head. He blinks away the wetness in his eyes and speaks almost in a whisper. “I just wish people took time to know me before they make judgments,” Myers says. “That’s all I ask. They think I’m this rude guy who doesn’t appreciate what I got. If only they knew.”

Don’t you just want to give him a big hug? He already claims that he had to get security for his wife in Los Angeles during the last series, and he was frightened at the prospects about having to go back to Boston with his wife and kids:

But he couldn’t escape the fear of the Phillies’ possible World Series opponent. “I did not want to play Boston,” says Myers, 28. “If Boston had beat Tampa, I would have gone to (manager) Charlie (Manuel) and told him, ‘I don’t want to pitch in Boston.’

“I don’t ever want to pitch in Boston again.”

You listening, Theo Epstein? Just don’t want you to be embarrassed when he becomes a free agent and you’re thinking about getting in touch with him.

Myers does recount the incident in 2006 that ended with him being arrested for allegedly assaulting his wife, Kim. He freely admits to being drunk and somewhat disorderly, but both parties claim guilt for what actually happened that night:

“They say I dragged my wife by her hair,” Myers says. “Never happened.

“They say I kicked her and threw her around like a rag doll. Never happened.

“I never did anything to her. There was nothing on her face. I was actually trying to protect her and get her to her room. She didn’t want to go, and things got carried away.

“When you’re both heavily intoxicated, that stuff does stuff to you you’re not supposed to do.”

I wonder if all of this would’ve come out if the Phillies were playing the Red Sox. Would Myers make it public that he was refusing to pitch in Boston? How would Charlie Manuel have handled that info? Unfortunately, this World Series is more interesting for the things that could have been, rather than what’s actually happened.

Brandon Webb had his best major league campaign yet in 2008, finishing with a 22-7 record in 34 starts for the D-Backs. You can chalk it up as another great season in what is turning into a very productive career for Webb. He’s still generating plenty of groundballs (2.93 G/F), while maintaining a healthy strikeout rate (7.27 K/9IP) and limiting his walks (2.58 BB/9IP). He’s proven capable of handling a heavy workload on a yearly basis, rolling up over 225 innings in each of the last four seasons, while Webb has finished with an ERA below 3.60 in all six of his seasons in Arizona. A long-term contract extension appears to be in the offing, while Arizona may need to get a hometown discount in order to keep him beyond an $8 million team option in 2010. (Rotowire)

Brandon Lyon converted 26-of-31 save opportunities before being permanently replaced in the closer’s role by Chad Qualls. He’s set to become a free agent this winter, while Lyon will likely end up signing elsewhere as the D-Backs will have to wisely spend payroll with a number of young players due for significant salary increases. Lyon’s effectiveness hinges heavily on where the opposition hits his pitches, as an inflated .355 BABIP is particularly costly when you don’t have dominant stuff. That said, Lyon’s strikeout rate swelled to a career-high 6.67 K/9IP in 2008 and in most circumstances, he should be able to reprise his role as a viable seventh- or eighth-inning set-up man in 2009. Just don’t expect the opportunity for him to close regularly to be there. (Rotowire)

Tony Pena finished the 2008 season with a 3-2 record and three saves while posting a 52:17 K:BB ratio in 72 appearances. The early-season emergence of Brandon Lyon as the D-Backs’ closer put Pena’s opportunity to work the ninth inning on hold, while Chad Qualls ended up taking over the role down the stretch when Lyon and trade deadline acquisition Jon Rauch were struggling. As for Pena, his strikeout rate (6.44 K/9IP) remained in line with his career mark, while he managed to cut back on his walks (2.11 BB/9IP) and home runs (0.62 HR/9IP). If he had been able to avoid a spike in BABIP (.329), Pena would have finished with an ERA closer to three than the 4.33 he ended with. All signs point to another season as a valuable set-up man for the D-Backs, especially since Arizona is likely to lose Juan Cruz via free agency. Pena will also remain in the mix for the closer’s role, and he could be given a chance to compete for the job during spring training. (Rotowire)

Joe Blanton pitched two-run ball for six-plus innings and homered Sunday to earn a win in Game 4 of the World Series. Blanton lined one to left off Edwin Jackson to become the first pitcher to homer in a World Series game since Ken Holtzman in 1974. He issued two walks, recorded seven strikeouts and, at the plate, even contributed a home run. “I just close my eyes and swing hard in case I make contact,” said Blanton, who thought he hadn’t homered since high school. “Better to be lucky than good, I guess.” The Phillies have won all three of his postseason starts, with Blanton compiling a 3.18 ERA in the process. He hasn’t lost in 16 regular and postseason starts for Philadelphia. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

Pablo Sandoval went 3-for-5 with a homer and three RBI for Magallanes of the Venezuelan Winter League on Friday. Edgardo Alfonso, Sandoval and Richard Hidalgo all homered while batting 3-4-5 in the lineup. The Giants have to be especially excited to see Sandoval producing while hitting between washed up has-beens. He’ll surely fit right into Brian Sabean’s future plans. (Rotoworld)

Player             AVG   R   HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
Victorino, Shane   .000  0    0    0     0

Player             ERA   WHIP   W   SV   K
------------------------------------------
Blanton, Joe       3.00  1.000  1    0   7

Player             AVG   R   HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
Victorino, Shane   .000  0    0    0     0

Brett Myers took the loss in Game 2, giving up three earned runs (four total) off seven hits and three walks while striking out two against Tampa Bay. It was an OK performance by Myers, who was hit early but settled down after the first two innings. He’s scheduled to pitch Game 6 if necessary. Despite struggling in his last few starts, Myers had a 7-4 record and 3.06 ERA in the second half. He had a tough time transitioning from the bullpen back to the rotation this season and even spent some time in the minors, but when he came around, he came around. Draft him as a No. 3 Fantasy SP next season. (Rotowire, CBS Sports)

Actually, Myers wasn’t that bad.  As John Perrotto points out in today’s Baseball Prospectus:

The Rays did not exactly smack losing pitcher Brett Myers around on their way to a 4-0 lead by the fourth inning. All of the Rays’ runs came on outs, including two in the first inning when consecutive grounders by Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria produced runs. B.J. Upton hit an RBI single in the second, Dioner Navarro scoring in front of Rico Baldelli’s being thrown out at the plate by right fielder Jayson Werth. Jason Bartlett’s squeeze bunt in the fourth made it 4-0. That was quite a change for the Rays, as they have slugged their way through October with 23 home runs in 13 games. “We can play long ball, small ball, any kind of ball you want,” Upton said. “It’s the World Series. You just try to score runs any which way you can. Do whatever you have to do to win ballgames.”

Player             AVG   R   HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
Victorino, Shane   .500  0    0    0     0

Player             ERA   WHIP   W   SV   K
------------------------------------------
Myers, Brett       3.86  1.429  0    0   2

Player             AVG   R   HR   RBI   SB
------------------------------------------
Coste, Chris       .000  0    0    0     0
Victorino, Shane   .500  1    0    0     0

(From left, Shane Victorino, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, Chris Coste) The World Series begins today in Tampa Bay with the Phillies facing the Rays. Brett Myers will be starting Game Two, and Joe Blanton may start Game Four, unless the Phillies need Cole Hamels to pitch on short rest. Victorino will start in center field, and bat either second or seventh, depending on who’s pitching. Coste hasn’t seen much action in the playoffs thus far, sitting to former Roadrunner Carlos Ruiz.

Update: Chris Coste will be the Phillies’ DH for Game 1 against the Rays, the Philly Inquirer reports. Coste will probably only get this start. The Phillies are facing lefty Scott Kazmir, but that’s the only lefty slated to start for the Rays at home. (Rotowire)

RotoProfessor has taken it upon themselves to solving the Fielder dilemma – as in, what happened? Here’s a look:

Recently, a reader asked me my opinion of Prince Fielder and to look deeper into his numbers to see when he turned things around. Could the signing of Ryan Braun or the trade of CC Sabathia have motivated him to pick things up?

The Braun signing came first, and we’ll start there. His signing came right around May 15, so that’s the date that I am going to use for this comparison. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

• Through May 15: .255 (36-141), 5 HR, 23 RBI, 18 R, .362 OBP, .411 SLG
• From May 17 on: .282 (126-440), 29 HR, 79 RBI, 68 R, .375 OBP, .537 SLG

Obviously, it is clear to see that the numbers were significantly better after the Braun signing, but was that the reason why? In the first 13 games after the signing, Fielder did hit .321 (17-53), but with just 1 HR, 2 RBI and 5 R. Yes, the average was there, but the power did not really come around until May 30.

From May 30-June 22, Fielder hit 10 HR in just 77 AB. Was there any rhyme or reason to that hot stretch? Maybe, maybe not. It’s easy to say that his struggles early on this season was due to his lack of a contract. It’s easy to say that once he saw Ryan Braun get a major deal from the Brewers he felt that he needed to turn things up in order to get the Brewers to sign him to a similar deal.

We really will never know, but what we did know was that Fielder had a terrible stretch to start the season, but he did turn things around. That turn around just came well after the ink dried on Braun’s contract.

The Sabathia acquisition was another milestone in the Brewers season. The numbers are a little bit closer, but he was still obviously better after the trade then before it. I used the cut-off date of July 8 for this comparison. Let’s look at the lines:

• Prior to the trade: .269 (88-327), 17 HR, 48 RBI, 51 R, .354 OBP, .483 SLG
• After the trade: .284 (74-261), 17 HR, 54 RBI, 35 R, .393 OBP, .536 SLG

To me, this split is a lot more telling. In 56 less AB, he was a significantly more productive player, basically up in every category across the board. Again, am I willing to say it was Sabathia who pushed Fielder to better himself?

Not by looking at his August numbers, when he hit .228 with 6 HR and 20 RBI with a .436 SLG over 101 AB. That was his lowest Average and Slugging Percentage in any month this season, even with his horrendous start to the season. If it were Sabathia who motivated him to produce, why would his worst month of the season come just weeks after his acquisition?

Basically, what it comes down for me is that Fielder’s season was not motivated by contract signings or trades. Simply put, he was not the same player that he was in 2007, when he hit .288 with 50 HR and 119 RBI. The speculation as to the reasons are endless really. He became a vegetarian. He didn’t get a long-term contract. He simply isn’t that good.

Whatever reason you want to believe, and we will probably never know the truth, all you can do is knock him down a few notches on your 2009 draft board. A player who was viewed as a potential first round pick a year ago, should now be seen as a late second round, early third round pick.

Last season he entered the season as a possible Top 3 first baseman now he is behind guys like Pujols and Berkman, Howard and Teixeira, for sure. Some may see him as a lesser choice then Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez. The comparison between he and Kevin Youkilis is an intriguing one as well. Basically, Fielder can be ranked almost anywhere in the Top 5-8 1B, and someone would be able to justify it.

It’s too early for me to say exactly where I’m going to rank him heading into 2009, but I will say that I am not going to ignore his 2007 season when evaluating him. Still, his FB% was down, similar to his number from 2006, when he hit 28 HR in his first full major league season.
Maybe he is just a .280ish hitter that’s going to launch 30-35 HR every season. Maybe the 50 HR season was the aberration, not the rule. Still, unlike some of the other 1B around, he’s proven he has the potential to bust out and carry your team in HR. That’s something worth considering. That’s something worth gambling on.