Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

More commentary about Lincecum’s last start, as his next start is tonight against Randy Johnson and the Diamondbacks. This is from Caleb Peiffer’s Thursday’s Games to Watch on Baseball Prospectus:

Lincecum tossed his first career complete game in a shutout of San Diego last Saturday night, but it came at the cost of 138 pitches, the most that have been thrown in one start since Livan Hernandez had a 145-pitch outing on July 31 of 2005. Manager Bruce Bochy wanted to get Lincecum the complete game, in part to bolster the 24-year-old’s case for the NL Cy Young award, as Bochy told MLB.com “I didn’t want that [of a CG] in the record when they talk about Cy Young votes.” Bochy has been pushing Lincecum towards that end lately; in the start before last Lincecum pitched into the ninth inning, finishing with 127 pitches, and three starts ago he threw 132 in 7 2/3 versus Colorado. No pitcher has tossed at least 125 in three out of four starts since 2003, when both Kerry Wood and Javier Vazquez had similar stretches. As a result of the recent stress, Lincecum is now way out in front of all other major league pitchers in Pitcher Abuse Points, with a per-start average PAP that has not been topped since 2005, when Hernandez made six starts of 130 or more pitches.

The stories about Lincecum’s freakish physical nature abound—how his twisting, off-kilter delivery is perfectly suited to get the most from his 5′11″ 160-lb frame, or how he didn’t need to ice his arm in college despite the fact that he regularly threw huge numbers of pitches (reportedly including 15 Category Five starts of 133-plus pitches during his three years at the University of Washington, according to college baseball analyst Boyd Nation). While Lincecum may well be a physical anomaly, the decision to push the limits of his rubber arm for a Giants team well out of contention is highly questionable, as BP founder Gary Huckabay expounded upon recently. Lincecum has passed through the “injury nexus,” that period of heightened injury sensitivity when a pitcher is still filling out and his tendons and muscles are still growing; a 2003 study by Will Carroll and Nate Silver found that the risk of pitcher injury is most acute at ages 21 and 22, before dropping down to its lowest point at age 24. That fact doesn’t excuse the last four starts for Lincecum, however, as Bochy and the Giants are threatening to bring back pitcher abuse, which had been virtually extinguished from today’s game.

Brandon Webb pitched seven innings and allowed three runs — two earned — Wednesday in a defeat of the Giants. All three runs came in the first. The Diamondbacks came right back with one run in the bottom of the inning and five in the second, and Webb settled in nicely after that. But his bat was more effective than his sinker early on. Arizona scored five runs in the second inning to erase a 3-1 deficit. Chris Snyder started the rally with a one-out walk and advanced to second on Chris B. Young’s single off Jonathan Sanchez (9-11). David Eckstein flied out but Webb followed with a tying two-run double to the center-field wall. The right-hander’s hit snapped the Diamondbacks’ 0-for-25 skid with runners in scoring position. Webb avoided serious trouble from there, allowing only one more runner to reach second and holding San Francisco scoreless over his final six innings. He’s still hardly in peak form, but he’s throwing quite a bit better than he was two or three weeks ago. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

Angels 1B Mark Teixeira hit a two-run homer off A’s RP Brad Ziegler in the ninth inning to give Los Angeles a 2-1 lead. Teixeira’s drive over the right-field fence was the first home run allowed by Ziegler as a professional since Aug. 17, 2005, for Double-A Midland at Arkansas. Teixeira, who has 31 homers, had two doubles earlier in the game to up his count to 37. Teixeira also knocked in the Angels’ only two runs in the game. Teixeira has been the Angels’ best offensive player since coming to the club, and this month is no different. Teixeira has 12 RBI in just 13 games this month. (Rotowire, CBS Sports)

Prince Fielder had three hits, including a three-run double, in the Brewers’ 6-2 win over the Cubs on Wednesday. Fielder also had a second double and a walk in the game, which the Brewers were able to win even though Ben Sheets left after two innings. Fielder also had three hits yesterday. Fielder has seven RBI in the last three games. He’s hit .405 with six homers and 12 RBI in 12 games against the Cubs this season. In the two games so far at Wrigley Field, he is 6-for-9 with three doubles, the two homers and six RBI. On top of that, he’s got an 8-game hitting streak going and he’s got three homers and seven RBI over his last three games. He’s hot and he’s a must-start in all Fantasy leagues. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

St. Louis SP Todd Wellemeyer (12-8) didn’t allow a hit on Wednesday against the Reds until Andy Phillips led off the fourth inning with a home run to center, his second homer of the season. Bruce followed with another homer to center, his 19th this year. Janish connected two outs later. That was enough for Wellemeyer to earn the loss. The right-hander allowed just one other hit besides the home runs. He walked two and struck out six. The slumping Wellemeyer is 1-4 in his last five starts and has given up all three sets of back-to-back home runs allowed by St. Louis this season. He’s still recommended in deeper mixed Fantasy leagues for his potential. He pitches twice next week but it will be two tough games. His next scheduled start comes Monday against Brandon Webb and Arizona and he’ll end his week against the Reds again. (CBS Sports)

Luis Ayala picked up a save against his former team by retiring the only Nationals hitter he faced on Wednesday. With the Mets entering the inning up 9-5, Ayala wasn’t expected to pitch. After an adventurous ninth that saw both Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano pitch, Mets manager Jerry Manuel turned to Ayala to stop the bleeding. With a man on first in a two-run game, Ayala was called in to face light-hitting Roger Bernadina and struck him out, even though both the second and third strikes were pretty hittable pitches. It was Ayala’s first appearance since his disaster against the Braves on Sunday. That he was the seventh reliever used by the Mets shows just how much confidence the team has in him as he tries to pitch with a strained groin. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

Jose Reyes led off Wednesday’s win over the Nationals with a home run and later added an RBI single and his 51st stolen base. Reyes drove Shairon Martis’ fifth pitch over the video board in right-center field at Washington’s home stadium. It was Reyes’ 15th homer this season, third leading off a game. Reyes is still hitting only .224 in September, one year after receiving much of the blame for the Mets’ 2007 collapse by having a bad September. The Mets — and fantasy owners — will have a hard time getting along if Reyes doesn’t perform down the stretch again. (Rotowire, CBS Sports)

Cubs SP Jason Marquis made his first start in 11 days on Wednesday night against the Brewers and picked up his ninth loss. Marquis had some control issues. He lasted 5 1/3 innings and was pulled after walking two batters and throwing a wild pitch in the sixth. He walked five and gave up six hits on the night. He did strike out three batters. Marquis did not pitch well on lots of rest Wednesday. Still, he’s a solid starter for a contending team and is recommended in deeper mixed leagues during the season’s final week. That’s because he pitches twice in that frame. His next scheduled start comes Monday at the Mets and then he goes to Milwaukee. (CBS Sports)

Braves 3B Chipper Jones is hitting .365 after going 1-for-3 with a walk on Wednesday against the Phillies to increase his lead over St. Louis’ Albert Pujols by 11 points for the majors’ best batting average. Pujols went 0-for-4 at Cincinnati. Jones has reached base safely in 40 straight games. Jones figures to get days off down the stretch, but he will remain active with the batting title within reach. Consider him a must-start third baseman in all leagues for Fantasy Week 26 (Sept. 22-28). (CBS Sports)

With Chad Qualls apparently again unavailable, Tony Pena picked up his third save Wednesday against the Giants. The Diamondbacks had Doug Slaten start the ninth in a 7-3 game, but he walked both hitters he faced. Pena entered then and immediately allowed an RBI triple, to make the score 7-5. However, he retired the next three batters to finish the game. Qualls needed Tuesday off after pitching both Sunday and Monday, but it was surprising that he wasn’t used tonight. He might be hurting. (Rotoworld)

Shane Victorino had three hits and his 33rd stolen base in Wednesday’s win over the Braves. Victorino now has 10 hits in 13 at-bats in his last three games, which is about as hot as you can get over a three-game stretch. (Rotowire)

Milwaukee OF Corey Hart only managed one hit in the Brewers win over the Cubs on Wednesday, but it was a big one. Hart went 1-for-5 and singled home two runs for his 85th RBI on the year. He’s batting .274. Hart isn’t exactly having a good run at the plate right now, but he still has too much potential to bench in Fantasy. Stick with Hart through thick and thin. (CBS Sports)

Chris Dickerson (Achilles’ tendon) was once again out of the Reds’ lineup on Wednesday, the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. With Edwin Encarnacion also out, the Reds’ lineup is looking even more emaciated than usual. Of the eight position players, only Joey Votto and Jay Bruce can remotely be considered regulars. (Rotowire)

Overall Standings

Rank Team                Batting Pitching Total Dif  Behind
---- ------------------- ------- -------- ----- ---- ------
 1   Atomic Roadrunners  44.0    38.0     82.0  1.0  0.0
 2   X-Men               31.0    39.0     70.0  0.5  12.0
 3   Shoeless Jews       32.0    33.0     65.0  1.0  17.0
 4   Stanimals           25.0    37.0     62.0  0.0  20.0
 5   Goodfellas          40.0    21.5     61.5  -0.5 20.5
 6   The Pi Train        25.0    27.0     52.0  0.0  30.0
 7   Uncle Lester        12.0    38.5     50.5  0.5  31.5
 8   Cover Zero          26.0    15.0     41.0  -1.5 41.0
 9   Get Off Kong!       23.0    14.0     37.0  1.0  45.0
 10  Misogynistic Padres 17.0    12.0     29.0  -2.0 53.0

Yesterday's Stats

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (9/17/08)
Player                        BA HR R RBI   SB
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Blake, Casey 3B LA        0.0000  0 0   0    0
DeWitt, Blake 3B LA       0.0000  0 0   0    0
Dickerson, Chris OF CIN   0.0000  0 0   0    0
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL    0.7500  0 1   3    0
Headley, Chase 3B SD      0.0000  0 0   0    0
Iannetta, Chris C COL     0.5000  0 0   0    0
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL     0.3333  0 0   0    0
Milledge, Lastings LF WAS 0.2000  0 2   0    0
Moss, Brandon OF PIT      0.2500  0 1   0    0
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM     0.5000  1 2   2    1
Sandoval, Pablo C SF      0.5000  0 1   1    0
Teixeira, Mark 1B ANA     0.7500  1 1   2    0
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC      0.0000  0 0   1    0
Victorino, Shane CF PHI   0.7500  0 1   0    1

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (9/17/08)
Player                       ERA  K S   W WHIP
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Ayala, Luis RP NYM          0.00  1 1   0 0.00
Marquis, Jason SP CHC       5.06  3 0   0 2.06
Webb, Brandon SP ARI        2.57  2 0   1 1.43
Wellemeyer, Todd SP STL     4.50  6 0   0 1.00