Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

Mark Normandin of Baseball Prospectus today ran a Fantasy Beat column looking at some surprise fantasy pitchers from 2008, including Todd Wellemeyer:

According to SNLVAR, Todd Wellemeyer has been the 28th most valuable starter in the majors this year (18th for those in NL-only leagues), and his ranking came out of nowhere. Wellemeyer split his time in 2007 between the Kansas City Royals and his current team, the Cardinals. He started 11 games and struck out 6.8 per nine, handed out too many free passes at 4.3 per nine, and gave up 1.3 home runs per nine. The converted reliever had always had issues with walks in the past—from 2003 to 2006, he gave up 5.8, 6.7, 5.9, and 5.4 unintentional walks per nine, though with his impressive strikeout totals, still managed at least a 1.5 K/BB in all but the last season.

This year has seen Wellemeyer drop a bit further from the strikeout rates we saw from him as a reliever, as he’s down to 6.1 per nine. That’s still above average, and when combined with the drop in his walk rates from 4.3 to 2.8 per nine, is certainly worth the trade-off. If you look deeper into his components, however, he’s performing a bit over his head. His QERA, which is based off of strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rates, three things that Wellemeyer handles at or a bit above average, comes in at 4.68. Wellemeyer does get an assist as long as he’s in St. Louis from his home park though, which is slanted toward pitchers, and he was not hurt by his team’s league-average defense this year either. What you have with Wellemeyer if he can replicate this production—and his 2008 PECOTA forecast sees no reason why he can’t—is a league-average pitcher who is going to perform a bit better than that due to his environment, and who may also pick up a few wins for you given that he’s on a team with some potent hitters that’s capable of contending for the playoffs. Keep him on your radar for 2009, but don’t overstate his 2008 ERA when making your final decision.

Prince Fielder homered twice and doubled Tuesday in a losing effort against the Cubs. Fielder tried to carry his teammates on his shoulders tonight, but Corey Hart and company refused to go along for the ride. Fielder is one of the few Brewers who has been stepping up during their five-game skid. He has four homers in the past five games, raising his season total to 32. He’s driven in 90 runs, which remains a pretty disappointing total. (Rotoworld)

Chris Iannetta hit his first major league grand slam Tuesday off the Padres’ Charlie Haeger. Iannetta also homered last night and now has 17 homers and 60 RBI for the year. He’s been a great surprise in a year in which he was supposed to be a pure backup to Yorvit Torrealba. The homer tonight pushed his OPS back over 900. (Rotoworld)

Third baseman Casey Blake went 3-for-5 with a home run and a triple in the Dodgers 6-2 win over the Pirates. A night after sitting out with lower back stiffness, Blake helped the Dodgers strike first with a solo home run in the second inning and followed it up with a triple in the third. In the sixth, Blake drove in Russell Martin with a single. Tuesday was his first multi-hit game since Sept. 3. Manny Ramirez added three hits as well as the Dodgers rolled past the Pirates. (Rotoworld)

Jose Reyes went hitless as the Mets were shut down by Washington’s Odalis Perez on Tuesday. As Reyes chokes, so choke the Mets. The shortstop is in the midst of a second straight disastrous September. He’s currently 11-for-54 with three runs scored and three RBI through 13 games. He’s even been caught on a third of his six steal attempts after entering the month with a 79-percent success rate. (Rotoworld)

C/INF Pablo Sandoval, who played first base Monday, had two hits and has hit safely in five consecutive games, nine of 10 and 23-of-29 since coming up from the minors. Sandoval is a catcher with pop, so he is an intriguing sleeper in deeper leagues. He has long-term potential, but his future might not be behind the plate. The rebuilding Giants will continue to get him at-bats behind Bengie Molina and at first base down the stretch, so give him a look if you have a need in crunch time. (CBS Sports)

Kevin Gregg says the Marlins have told him they want to look at Matt Lindstrom in the closer role for the rest of the season, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports. Arthur Rhodes may steal an occasional situational save as he did on Sunday, but it appears as though Lindstrom will get the bulk of the chances down the stretch. Gregg, who’ll be due a big raise in arbitration, doesn’t expect to return to Florida in 2009. “They basically indicated to me they’re going to give Lindstrom a tryout and see if he can handle it, see if they can use him next year instead of having to spend some money on me,” Gregg said. “Finances play everything into their decisions around here. I have no problem playing somewhere else. It’s not like this is the only team I’ve ever played for. It’s a business. They try to save every dollar they can and we try to earn every dollar we’re worth…. Next year I’ll have a job. I’m not worried about that. It’s just a matter of where it will be.” (Rotowire)

Mike Gonzalez blew his second save of the season in a 8-7 loss to the Phillies. After not blowing a save in over four years, Gonzalez has two blown saves in the eight days. The fact that the Braves don’t have other closing options and Gonzalez’s two scoreless efforts sandwiched between the blown saves, means that he shouldn’t be in danger of losing the job. (Rotowire)

Tony Pena (2-2) pitched a perfect eighth inning for the victory Monday and Chad Qualls came on in the ninth for his fourth save in 12 chances. Pena has taken over as the D-Backs’ primary setup man and could be a candidate to close if something happens to Qualls, who has taken over as the closer recently. Pena has a great arm and could be a candidate to close long term, too. (CBS Sports)

James Parr was removed after giving up four runs and 10 hits in 4 1/3 innings versus the Phillies on Tuesday. Parr was up to 14 scoreless innings as a major leaguer before Chase Utley and Jayson Werth got to him for three in the third tonight. One more followed in the fourth, and Parr was lucky there was no further damage in the fifth. He was removed with two on and one out, but Buddy Carlyle got out of the jam. (Rotoworld)

John Maine (shoulder) made 50 throws from flat ground at a distance of 100 feet Tuesday. Maine is expected to undergo offseason surgery to shave down a bone spur in his shoulder, but is hoping to come back as a reliever in the postseason first. “I don’t know why I’d be going through this if I wasn’t going to pitch,” Maine said. “I could have had the surgery three weeks ago.” (Rotoworld)

The San Diego Union Tribune reports that Jody Gerut (finger) is “unlikely to bat again this season.” Gerut may be used as a pinch-runner, but he’s still not able to grip a bat after injuring his finger on August 27. If he’s indeed done hitting, Gerut finishes his comeback season at .297/.352/.495 with 14 homers and 43 RBI in 355 plate appearances, which is remarkable for a 30-year-old who hadn’t topped 200 plate appearances in a season since 2004. (Rotoworld)

Overall Standings

Rank Team                Batting Pitching Total Dif  Behind
---- ------------------- ------- -------- ----- ---- ------
 1   Atomic Roadrunners  43.0    38.0     81.0  0.0  0.0
 2   X-Men               32.0    39.0     71.0  1.5  10.0
 3   Shoeless Jews       32.0    33.0     65.0  1.0  16.0
 4   Stanimals           25.5    37.0     62.5  0.5  18.5
 5   Goodfellas          39.0    21.5     60.5  -1.5 20.5
 6   The Pi Train        25.5    27.0     52.5  0.5  28.5
 7   Uncle Lester        12.0    38.5     50.5  0.5  30.5
 8   Cover Zero          26.0    15.0     41.0  -1.5 40.0
 9   Get Off Kong!       22.0    13.0     35.0  -1.0 46.0
 10  Misogynistic Padres 18.0    13.0     31.0  0.0  50.0

Yesterday's Stats

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (9/16/08)
Player                        BA HR R RBI   SB
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Blake, Casey 3B LA        0.6000  1 2   2    0
DeWitt, Blake 3B LA       0.5000  0 1   1    0
Dickerson, Chris OF CIN   0.2500  0 1   0    0
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL    0.6000  2 2   3    0
Headley, Chase 3B SD      0.5000  0 0   0    0
Iannetta, Chris C COL     0.5000  1 2   4    0
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL     0.5000  0 1   0    0
Milledge, Lastings LF WAS 0.5000  0 0   0    0
Moss, Brandon OF PIT      0.0000  0 0   1    0
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM     0.0000  0 0   0    0
Sandoval, Pablo C SF      0.5000  0 0   0    0
Teixeira, Mark 1B ANA     0.0000  0 0   0    0
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC      0.2500  0 1   0    0
Victorino, Shane CF PHI   0.6000  0 0   1    0

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (9/16/08)
Player                       ERA  K S   W WHIP
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Gonzalez, Mike RP ATL      27.00  1 0   0 3.00