Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

Baseball fans this week were galvanized against the over-use of Tim Lincecum in his 138-pitch outing the other day. Here are two more snippets:

MSNBC’s Ted Robinson chimes in with some backstory of why 138 is the number of the week:

THE NUMBER OF THE WEEKEND…138. That’s how many pitches Tim Lincecum threw in his first career shutout Saturday night. It’s mind boggling that the Giants would take such a risk. Lincecum has no signs of trouble and I accept the concept of a young pitcher maturing through complete games. But this risk-reward ratio is so low as to violate every business school principle.

Lincecum is not the winningest pitcher in the NL, but he — by any statistical measure — is the league’s best. His main Cy Young rival, Brandon Webb, has called him dominant.

So, why have the Giants, finishing respectably in an otherwise dreadful season, allowed Lincecum to work over 200 innings?

The root lies in a July 26 game in which Lincecum pitched against Brandon Webb. Through seven innings, Lincecum struck out 13 D’Backs and had outdueled Webb. With a 3-2 lead, the Giants removed Lincecum, and the bullpen lost the game.

The outrage in San Francisco was notable. Fans flooded talk shows with brutal criticism of Giants manager Bruce Bochy. No matter that the Giants season was long lost or that Lincecum was the organization’s most valuable player. Baseball had changed, starters were babied, and the fans were hacked off.

Since that game, Lincecum has made nine starts and thrown at least 114 pitches in seven of those. Two of his last three starts have had pitch counts of over 127. Bochy clearly heard the fans but his use of Lincecum is dangerous given the oft-cited recent history of Mark Prior.

Lincecum should win the NL Cy Young but he will be watched carefully next year.

And Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus joined colleague Gary Huckabay’s disgust:

From the sheer volume of emails, it seems that everyone not in the path of Hurricane Ike was watching Lincecum’s pitch count. There was an interesting internal discussion about the value of a shutout, his long-term health, and his general Freakness. Let’s look at the facts: Lincecum threw 138 pitches, an average of just over 15 per inning, and his single-inning high for the game was 22 in the first. He had thrown a 132-pitch game three starts ago, had followed that high-count outing with a 92-pitch game where his effectiveness was down, but he came right back with an effective 127-pitch game before his most recent outing. His fastball sat at 92/93 all game long, and he did not appear to be reaching back in the later innings. In fact, it seems that he was pitching to contact and trying to go for quick outs rather than strikeouts in the later innings. While I’m not big on the value of a shutout, I’m not sure that Lincecum was taxed by this. Just after the game, I wondered if the Giants might be thinking of shutting him down, and that’s still not the worst idea, especially given that Brandon Webb’s 20th win likely takes Lincecum out of the Cy Young running. All that said, I completely agree with Gary Huckabay—there was no reason to do this. There’s a giant difference between “could” and “should,” and apparently Bruce Bochy doesn’t understand that.

Brett Myers pitched a complete game two-hitter in a 6-1 win as the Phillies completed a doubleheader sweep of the Brewers on Sunday. He struck out four and walked just one, pitching very well despite making his start on three days’ rest. The Brewers didn’t do a very good job working the count, as Myers needed just 95 pitches to get through the nightcap of Sunday’s doubleheader. The Brewers scored a combined 10 runs in a four-game sweep that leaves both them and the Phillies with identical 83-67 records. The Phillies are now one game back of the Mets in the NL East, though it’s two in the loss column. The Phillies and Brewers share the wild-card lead, with Houston two games back. Myers moved to 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA in 11 starts since returning from the minors. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

Angels 1B Mark Teixeira reached the 30-homer mark for the fifth straight season with a leadoff shot in the sixth inning Sunday against the Mariners. It was his 200th career home run and 10th home run since joining the Angels in a July 29 trade with Atlanta. He finished 1-for-2 with two walks and two runs scored. Teixeira is having his usual monster second half and is clearly an elite Fantasy 1B. Start him in all leagues. Given his relative age and health, he should start more than most Angels over the final two weeks. (CBS Sports)

Lastings Milledge collected three hits and two steals in an 8-7 loss to the Marlins on Sunday. Milledge singled twice and doubled once while scoring twice and driving in a pair of runs. His .262 average and 14 homers in 479 at-bats haven’t been much of a help, but Milledge’s 22 steals have given him some value. He’s still just 23 years old and is coming off a red-hot August, so he’ll be a candidate for a jump in production next season. (Rotoworld)

Joe Blanton held the Brewers to three runs in seven innings on Sunday but was not involved in the decision of a 7-3 Phillies’ win. Blanton watched as the Phillies scored four runs in the bottom of the eighth. He has a 4.53 ERA in 11 starts since coming to the National League. However, he’s been credited with nine no-decisions in those 11 starts, leaving him with a 2-0 record. The club is 7-4 in his starts, so they’ve surely been happy with the acquistion. However, pitching coach Rich Dubee said Blanton had pitched through a mild bout of biceps tendinitis for at least two starts. To cope with the discomfort, he unknowingly altered his mechanics, changing his arm slot and affecting his control. Blanton, who had a 5.58 ERA in six starts from Aug. 13 through Sept. 8, said he corrected his flaws during a bullpen session last week. He held the Brewers to five hits and two walks, throwing 64 strikes in 99 pitches. “I put in a lot of work in between my last start and this start to get mechanically sound and get right,” Blanton said. “I felt like I had a good base built, and I just tried to stick with it the whole game and attack the (strike) zone.” (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

Chipper Jones, who didn’t play in Saturday’s doubleheader because of a stiff back, went 3-for-5 in his final game at Shea Stadium on Sunday. Chipper, who named his son Shea, ended up hitting .313 with 19 homers and 55 RBI in 88 career games at the Mets’ soon-to-be-replaced home park. His career road OPS is just more than 40 points higher there than everywhere else. (Rotoworld)

After hitting a three-run homer in the first game, Shane Victorino went 4-for-4 in the nightcap against the Brewers on Sunday. Before busting out today, Victorino was 10-for-53 with no extra-base hits over his last 14 games. It was his first game with more than two hits in a month and a half. Victorino’s four hits were a season high. He had a three-run homer in game 1 earlier in the day. Victorino looks like a must-start outfielder in all leagues during Fantasy crunch time. Get him active for Fantasy Week 25 (Sept. 15-21) while he is hot.(CBS Sports) (Rotoworld)

Giants closer Brian Wilson allowed one hit in one scoreless inning Sunday at San Diego, striking out one to record his 39th save. He has two scoreless appearances after a three-outing stint when he gave up five earned runs. Wilson’s ERA is a little high, but he has a nice save percentage and nice numbers overall. Continue to think of him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy closer despite his recent struggles. (CBS Sports)

Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom, who had worked in four of the previous five games, didn’t get a chance to pitch in a save opportunity Sunday against the Nationals. The Marlins had to switch between three relievers, though, before Arthur Rhodes finally recorded the save. The Marlins’ struggles with Lindstrom out only helped solidify his role in the ninth inning. The team could revert back to Kevin Gregg as their closer at moment’s notice, but Lindstrom looks like the Marlins reliever to own for now. (CBS Sports)

The Mets tried to make a comeback of their own in the bottom of the ninth Sunday, putting their first two batters on, but Mike Gonzalez retired the next three for his 11th save in 12 chances. Gonzalez is a sleeper at the closer position down the stretch. He is proving healthy and effective coming off Tommy John surgery and will close as much as the lowly Braves give him a chance to in the final weeks. (CBS Sports)

Fill-in closer Luis Ayala gave up a go-ahead homer to pinch-hitter Greg Norton, and the Atlanta Braves rallied for five runs in the ninth inning Sunday and a 7-4 victory that trimmed New York’s tenuous NL East lead to 1-1/2 games. Ayala (2-9) began the ninth with a 4-2 lead and allowed consecutive singles to Casey Kotchman and pinch-hitter Kelly Johnson. Norton then drove a full-count delivery into the Mets’ right-field bullpen — appropriately — for a 5-4 Atlanta edge. It was Norton’s third pinch-hit homer this season. Ayala is no sure thing, obviously, and the Mets might not give him that much of a leash down the stretch. Consider him a low-end closer option, although the Mets do have seven-game weeks in both of the final two weeks. Ayala should still get save opportunities, as long as he doesn’t blow it. (CBS Sports)

Prince Fielder hit a solo homer for the Brewers, who have lost four straight and 11 of 14. Fielder has a hit in his past six games and looks like a solid start in all leagues for Fantasy Week 25 (Sept. 15-21). The Brewers will have in the lineup everyday in the final two weeks of the season. (CBS Sports)

Meanwhile, RotoProfessor has named Fielder one of this season’s most disappointing players:

He may be one of the most disappointing performers in all of baseball this season.  After hitting 50 HR with a .288 average in 2007, people expected him to put up at least similar numbers in 2008, but that certainly has not even been close to the case.  The average is acceptable at .263, but sitting with just 29 HR at this point this season it can be seen as nothing more than a major setback.

His biggest month this season was 8 in June and he only hit 4 a piece in April and May.  He did have a terrible month of July last season, where he hit just 3 HR, but he also had months of 13, 9 and 11, so it more then made up for it.

The 2008 numbers look like they could be right in line with his 2006 season, when he hit .271 with 28 HR.  Those are obviously not numbers that warrant first round consideration and if that is the player he is going to be then he obviously does not belong being taken so early.

Point to whatever you want for his decreased power supply, if it is the fact that he is now a vegetarian or that 2007 was a fluke or whatever else you want to throw in there, there certainly is a lot of risk surrounding selecting him early on in any draft.  While it is possible that he bounces back and supplies 40+ HR power again in 2009, I’m not willing to gamble with such an important pick and would recommend you doing the same.

If I’m going to pick a player in the first round, I want to know for a fact that he is going to help me extensively in at least one category, or at least be above average across the board.  You do not get that in Fielder at all.  He has proven that he is never going to give you a great average, even though he is not going to hurt you.  He also provides little speed, so SB just aren’t going to be there and who knows how many times he’s going to be able to round the bases.  Yes, he did score 109 last season but had just 82 in ‘06 and is on pace for a similar number this year.

If he was a lock to hit 45 HR, then this discussion would be extremely different.  Unfortunately, I just don’t believe that at this point making him an impossible pick in the first round.

Jose Reyes stole his 50th base, giving him four straight seasons with at least that many, the NY Daily News reports. Earlier this month, Reyes passed Mookie Wilson for the Mets all-time stolen base record. At just 25, Reyes is only beginning to exhibit his fantastic potential. (Rotoworld)

Arizona RHP Brandon Lyon, who lost the closer’s job Saturday, pitched a 1-2-3 seventh Sunday. Lyon, who is likely headed to free agency, is nothing more than a low-end middle reliever for the deepest of NL-only leagues that use true middle men here on out. (CBS Sports)

The Cubs opted to move Ted Lilly ahead of Marquis in the rotation, thus pushing Marquis’ start to Wednesday, the Chicago Tribune reports. We talked about how with Hurricane Ike, the Cubs would shuffle their rotation for better matchups. Marquis will draw Ben Sheets in the second game of the Cubs / Brewers series. (Rotoworld)