Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

John Sickels reviewed Carlos Villanueva in his “Not a Prospect” series on Minor League Ball.  The series should really be entitled “No Longer a Prospect, as They’re Young But No Longer Qualify for Rookie-of-the-Year Voting” or similar.  Some excerpts:

Villanueva opened 2006 in Double-A and pitched well; he continued pitching well in Triple-A, then ended the season with 53.2 strong innings for the Brewers. Last year he pitched 114 innings for Milwaukee with a 3.94 ERA. In 168 career innings entering 2008, Villanueva has a 138/64 K/BB with 144 hits allowed and a 3.86 ERA.

What does the future hold?

PECOTA seems to hate him, giving him a collapse rate of 60% entering 2008. His comparables list includes scary comps like Todd Van Poppel and Ken Cloude, but also a few more successful guys like Mudcat Grant and Moe Drabowsky. Although in the rotation right now, my personal belief is that he is best utilized in the long relief/spot starter role, and that as a full-time starter he would be more likely to get overexposed and fail.

Villanueva is a Grade C/C+ prospect made good, and I tend to root for guys like this. If he stays healthy I think he will have a mixture of good and bad seasons, the kind of guy who will post a 6.00 ERA in a bad year, drift to another team, then turn things around quickly and post a 3.00 mark in a limited role, before being overexposed and struggling again. In the end I think Villanueva balances out as an average major league pitcher overall, but that’s not an insult, and he gives hope to every guy in Double-A who has average stuff and is looking for a break.

Hmm, perhaps I should have said “$6″ on Manny Parra instead.

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