Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

SP Todd Wellemeyer received some kudos from Marc Normandin over at Baseball Prospectus in his BP Fantasy Beat: Patching Up the Rotation:

Todd Wellemeyer has some neat stats to start the year, with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings. His ERA of 4.00 isn’t optimal if you’re picky about rate stats and are aware that he probably won’t finish even there, but the strikeout rate and his decent K/BB of 2.9 have made up for it so far. The problem is that Wellemeyer’s already given up five big flies; I don’t expect him to give up homers on 36 percent of his fly balls on the season, but even when that figure falls out of orbit, there is the more serious issue of regression from even this level of performance to wonder about.

April is wonderful for player performance in limited playing time, and Wellemeyer’s line is no different. Yes, he has an ERA of 4.00, but he has also stranded 93 percent of his baserunners. He’s allowed 14 hits and seven walks on the season, with five of those hits coming as home runs. Even when the homer rate drops, his Left on Base rate should drop around 20 percent, to a more normal figure. His QERA is an improvement on his ERA, since it’s based on K/BB/GB rates, but even that should drop as the season drags on. His current K/9 is 10.0, but in his two longest campaigns, Wellemeyer posted K/9 of 6.2 and 6.8, respectively. Dropping his strikeout rate down to 2007 levels and plugging it into the QERA formula gives you 4.80. This is probably closer to his actual value—his Equivalent ERA from his PECOTA projection is also 4.80—assuming his problems with homers stop plaguing him. Wellemeyer doesn’t have much upside, and there are too many small sample issues surrounding his work so far. Unless you’re in a very large, very deep league, you can do better.

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