Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

Chase Headley was mentioned today in Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock over at Baseball Prospectus:

The former third baseman had a strong enough spring training to nearly win a big league job at his new position; maybe losing out to Paul McAnulty in the end burst his bubble temporarily, as he’s currently at .250/.318/.350 in 10 games for Triple-A Portland, and that’s only because he’s gone 5-for-13 in his last three games. More alarming early numbers include just one home run in 40 at-bats, and four walks against 15 strikeouts from a player with one of the best approaches in the organization. Still, with McAnulty struggling once again to hit big league pitching, Headley could be just a two- or three-week hot streak away from getting his chance.

SP Todd Wellemeyer received some kudos from Marc Normandin over at Baseball Prospectus in his BP Fantasy Beat: Patching Up the Rotation:

Todd Wellemeyer has some neat stats to start the year, with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings. His ERA of 4.00 isn’t optimal if you’re picky about rate stats and are aware that he probably won’t finish even there, but the strikeout rate and his decent K/BB of 2.9 have made up for it so far. The problem is that Wellemeyer’s already given up five big flies; I don’t expect him to give up homers on 36 percent of his fly balls on the season, but even when that figure falls out of orbit, there is the more serious issue of regression from even this level of performance to wonder about.

April is wonderful for player performance in limited playing time, and Wellemeyer’s line is no different. Yes, he has an ERA of 4.00, but he has also stranded 93 percent of his baserunners. He’s allowed 14 hits and seven walks on the season, with five of those hits coming as home runs. Even when the homer rate drops, his Left on Base rate should drop around 20 percent, to a more normal figure. His QERA is an improvement on his ERA, since it’s based on K/BB/GB rates, but even that should drop as the season drags on. His current K/9 is 10.0, but in his two longest campaigns, Wellemeyer posted K/9 of 6.2 and 6.8, respectively. Dropping his strikeout rate down to 2007 levels and plugging it into the QERA formula gives you 4.80. This is probably closer to his actual value—his Equivalent ERA from his PECOTA projection is also 4.80—assuming his problems with homers stop plaguing him. Wellemeyer doesn’t have much upside, and there are too many small sample issues surrounding his work so far. Unless you’re in a very large, very deep league, you can do better.

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Peter Moylan (elbow) is scheduled to be examined Wednesday by Dr. James Andrews and “could be out quite a while.” Moylan has been diagnosed with a strained elbow, but the newspaper notes than an MRI “showed irregularities that could indicate a serious injury.” It sounds like Moylan is going to be out a significant amount of time and possibly miss the season. Manny Acosta will likely get the first chance to close games until Rafael Soriano returns from the DL. Manager Bobby Cox said Tuesday that the Braves “will just mix it up” by using a closer-by-committee approach that includes Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer and Will Ohman while Moylan and Rafael Soriano are sidelined. Acosta is the favorite for saves. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

Also, under the headline “Another Shrimp Barbied“, Bugs and Cranks had the following to say:

Sometimes, I don’t know why I bother trying to stay positive.

Scant hours after I listed Peter Moylan as one of the lone bright spots in the Braves’ so-far ho-hum season, the Aussie hurler goes and winds up on the disabled list.

Son of a bitch.

For those of you scoring at home, that’s now four starting pitchers missing time with injuries, and two closers on the shelf with bum wings. In the season’s first twelve games. To say nothing of Mike Gonzalez and Anthony Lerew, already on the DL with healing elbows. At this point, only two weeks into the season, I can come to one of three conclusions:

1. Someone in the Braves’ clubhouse has secretly replaced all the pitchers’ arms with single-ply tissue paper, to see if anyone notices. (Note: I have. Now stop it already.)

2. Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, the only Braves pitchers seemingly unaffected by this injury epidemic, must have arms made of reinforced concrete, with solid steel tendons. Either that, or they’re next.

3. If Mike Hampton, who already has plenty of material for an ‘Injury-a-Day‘ desk calendar, actually attempts to return during this seemingly star-crossed period, I fear the man will literally shatter into tiny pieces on the mound. These are omens, Mikey. Stay away until the getting’s good.

And right now, the getting is anything but good. Just look around. Jeff Bennett’s thrown the most innings on the team, other than Hudson. Manny Acosta and his 7.20 ERA are closing out games, assuming that sort of thing is actually required. And some guy named Jorge Campillo is out in the bullpen, with a uniform on. And Bobby Cox is calling him in to pitch in real live games. Freaky.

From RotoProfessor:

While I still think Pearce will play his way into a role for the Pirates at some point this season, he certainly isn’t doing enough to force their hand at this point. Granted, he has warmed up a bit, hitting .286 over his last 7 games, including his current 5 game hitting streak. Over that time he has 4 RBI and 2 runs scored, though he walked just once.

From a player who was expected to take over for either Jason Bay, Xavier Nady or Adam Laroche, his numbers are not encouraging at all. For the season, he is hitting .264, but has yet to hit a home run. He’s driven in 8 RBI and scored just 2. His OBP of .298 is definitely not what you want to see from a player who could hit in the middle of your line-up.

He is the same player who hit 31 HR last season and posted an OBP of .394. Hopefully he is able to settle himself down and back to what he does best in the near future.

I still expect him to make an impact at some point this season, but unless he turns things around, it’s not going to be as soon as I would have hoped. Keep his name in mind, but owners in all formats should ignore him at this point. Deep keeper leagues are the only ones who should be considering him until he at least shows signs of progress. Unless there is an injury or a trade, he’s certainly not doing enough to warrant being recalled.

OF John Bowker, who became the first Giants player to homer in his first two games last weekend, hit his first career triple leading off the seventh inning Tuesday against the Diamondbacks and singled in the ninth. Bowker finished 2-for-4 with a run scored and is 6-for-10 with seven RBI in his first three major-league games. At least for now, Bowker seems to be playing every day against right-handers, which means he’s probably worth an add in NL-only leagues. The Giants have to displace one of Randy Winn and Fred Lewis to get him in the lineup, though, so he probably has a short leash. (CBS Sports)

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Randy Winn “might find himself on the bench more than expected” because of the emergence of John Bowker. Winn, who played 155 games last season, was out of the lineup Tuesday. “We’ll see what happens,” Winn said. “This year they said they were going to go with younger players, and they’re doing it. I think it’s not a big surprise. If they come to me, I’ll have a better answer for you. Right now, I’m just going with the flow.” (Rotoworld)

Also, RotoWorld.com’s Nate Stephens details the Week 2 Callups:

No big names were called up in the NL this week, but Bowker is one player I’ve been intrigued with for awhile and I think is well worth watching. A third-rounder out of Long Beach State University in 2004, Bowker was considered to have a good but inconsistent swing that lead to very mediocre results in college. He went on to have a nice debut in the low minors after signing, but two seasons at High-A San Jose in 2005 and 2006 were big disappointments with little improvement.

The Giants moved Bowker up to Double-A in 2007 anyway, and the 6′2″ left-hander responded with an incredible .307/.363/.523 line that included 35 doubles, six triples, and 22 homers. Perhaps that line doesn’t look “incredible”, but once you adjust for the fact that he was playing at one of the worst parks for power hitters in the minors (Dodd Stadium) it does look quite nice. His line away from Dodd Stadium was .345/.397/.629, further cementing his season as an outstanding one.

I wrote about Bowker after attending last year’s Eastern League All-Star Game, highlighting how the now 24 year-old had a quick swing that generated plenty of power. That power has been evident so far with the Giants, as Bowker has smacked a homer in each of his first two games. Since Bowker also has solid plate discipline and is adept at handling left-handed pitchers, he could prove to be a real sleeper for those in NL-only leagues. That the Giants are again working him out at first base after doing so this spring is encouraging, as first is a big position of need for the Giants both now and in the future (until Angel Villalona is ready). If Bowker can keep hitting, and I like his chances, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him claim the first base job and perform admirably while doing so. A .270-15-60 season with 450+ at-bats isn’t out of the question.

Recommendation: Go the extra dollar for him in NL-only one-year and keeper leagues; only those in very deep mixed leagues should monitor.

Prince Fielder walked all four times he was up, but he never scored Tuesday in the 5-1 loss to the Cardinals. Bill Hall went 0-for-4 and grounded into two double plays behind him, dropping his average to .210. Brewers manager Ned Yost agreed to have Ryan Braun and Fielder switch spots per their requests, but the slumping Braun had tonight off and Fielder wasn’t given a chance to do any damage. The Brewers may try something else to help get him going. Putting Corey Hart ahead of Hall is one option. (Rotoworld)

Jose Reyes finished 4-for-5 with a run scored in his return against the Nationals on Tuesday night. Reyes was a home run away from hitting the cycle, and appears to be just fine after missing two games with a strained hamstring. The most encouraging news could be that he attempted a stolen base in his first game back, even if he was caught. His early start to the season has been disappointing, which is disconcerting after the way he ended last season, so maybe this game will be the catalyst to get him back on track. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

Diamondbacks closer Brandon Lyon, who hadn’t pitched in nearly a week, got in an inning of work Tuesday at San Francisco. He allowed two hits and a walk. Lyon hasn’t exactly dazzled in his first two weeks on the job, but he has the support of manager Bob Melvin. If he can figure out the role, he might be a worthwhile Fantasy closer, pitching for a contender like the Diamondbacks. Treat him as a No. 2 option right now. (CBS Sports)

Cubs SS Ryan Theriot took advantage of the gusts blowing out at Wrigley on Tuesday evening by hitting his first home run of the season, a two-run shot off reliever Todd Coffey in the eighth. Theriot only hit three homers last season and is not on Fantasy teams for his power capability. He is nothing more than a deeper NL-only option with the stats he puts up. (CBS Sports)

If Alfonso Soriano (calf) has to go on the disabled list, Murton would likely get called up from Triple-A Iowa. In that case, Murton would likely see time in left field when Reed Johnson’s in center - mostly against left-handed pitching. Mark DeRosa could also be in the mix, with Mike Fontenot moving to second base. (Rotowire)

However, the Chicago Tribune believes the Cubs will call up Eric Patterson, not Matt Murton, as the replacement for Alfonso Soriano should Soriano land on the DL. If that really happens, then Jim Hendrhy was lying through his teeth when he kept saying he thought Murton would be a solid left fielder on a lot of teams. The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan suspects the Cubs will give Mark DeRosa a lot of time in left field, with Mike Fontenot taking over at second. (Rotoworld)

Overall Standings

Rank Team                Batting Pitching Total Dif  Behind
---- ------------------- ------- -------- ----- ---- ------
 1   Goodfellas          35.0    46.0     81.0  9.5  0.0
 2   Shoeless Jews       36.5    30.5     67.0  1.5  14.0
 3   The Pi Train        29.0    33.0     62.0  -4.0 19.0
 4   X-Men               23.0    35.5     58.5  -1.5 22.5
 5   Stanimals           37.5    12.0     49.5  3.0  31.5
 6   Uncle Lester        12.0    36.0     48.0  -3.0 33.0
 7   Misogynistic Padres 36.0    11.5     47.5  -5.5 33.5
 8   Get Off Kong!       22.5    24.5     47.0  3.0  34.0
 9   Atomic Roadrunners  17.5    28.0     45.5  -3.0 35.5
 10  Cover Zero          26.0    18.0     44.0  0.0  37.0

Yesterday's Stats

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (4/15/08)
Player                        BA HR R RBI   SB
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Barton, Brian OF STL      0.0000  0 0   0    0
Bowker, John OF SF        0.5000  0 1   0    0
Dewitt, Blake 3B LA       0.3333  0 0   0    0
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL    0.0000  0 0   0    0
Hart, Corey C. RF MIL     0.6667  0 0   1    0
Jones, Andruw CF LA       0.6667  0 2   0    0
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL     0.5000  0 0   0    0
Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN  0.0000  0 1   0    0
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM     0.8000  0 1   0    0
Ruiz, Carlos C PHI        0.0000  0 0   0    0
Spilborghs, Ryan CF COL   0.0000  0 0   0    0
Teixeira, Mark 1B ATL     0.0000  0 0   0    0
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC      0.5000  1 2   2    0
Valentin, Javier C CIN    0.0000  0 0   0    0

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (4/15/08)
Player                       ERA  K S   W WHIP
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Lyon, Brandon RP ARI        0.00  0 0   0 3.00