Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

In today’s BP Fantasy Beat, Mark Normandin has an insightful (and pessimistic) view of Andruw Jones’ collapse:

After posting one of the more disappointing lines of 2007 at just .222/.311/.413, Andruw Jones has picked up where he left off with a .105/.209/.132 start to 2008. There are tons of players hitting badly at this point in the season, but Jones sticks out for a few reasons. For one, Jones has only hit 11.5 percent of his batted-balls for liners; the league average is closer to 20 percent, and his career rate is 18.1. Even last year he was at 17.2 percent; this can easily even out, since 11.5 percent is just three liners out of 26 batted-balls, but it’s something to watch.

There are two things that worry me more than his liner rate. Jones’ grounder rate is 69.2 percent; he’s hitting 3.6 times more grounders than flyballs at the moment, an odd thing for a player who has crossed the 40 percent mark for flyball rate the past three years. He’s also striking out in 31.6 percent of his plate appearances, the highest mark he’s had since he first came into the league as a 19-year old rookie. He’s never hit for much of an average, so if his bat is slowing to the point where he can’t hit for much power, he’s not going to be any help at the plate.

The evidence for his bat slowing is sort of muddled with the few numbers we have to look at this early in the year. He’s pulling 27 percent of the balls he makes contact with to the left side of the infield, and then another 26 percent of them to left field. Only 16% of his batted-balls have gone to the right side of the field. Last year, Jones hit 33.4 percent of his batted-balls to the left side of the infield for a batting average of .171, so that pull rate is nothing new.

Jones is hitting .304 on fastballs so far this year, but the only place he’s killing the ball is right down the middle of the plate and outside; he hasn’t been able to do anything effective with inside pitches yet. This makes me think that so far, he’s only been hitting mistakes off of guys who aren’t challenging his bat speed yet. If that’s the case, Jones’ line may not jump to the point where he’s going to be any help for you at a very deep position. Keep an eye on him and watch for improvement or stasis in his batted-ball data, strikeout rate and pitches hit before doing anything rash.

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