Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

In today’s BP Fantasy Beat, Mark Normandin has an insightful (and pessimistic) view of Andruw Jones’ collapse:

After posting one of the more disappointing lines of 2007 at just .222/.311/.413, Andruw Jones has picked up where he left off with a .105/.209/.132 start to 2008. There are tons of players hitting badly at this point in the season, but Jones sticks out for a few reasons. For one, Jones has only hit 11.5 percent of his batted-balls for liners; the league average is closer to 20 percent, and his career rate is 18.1. Even last year he was at 17.2 percent; this can easily even out, since 11.5 percent is just three liners out of 26 batted-balls, but it’s something to watch.

There are two things that worry me more than his liner rate. Jones’ grounder rate is 69.2 percent; he’s hitting 3.6 times more grounders than flyballs at the moment, an odd thing for a player who has crossed the 40 percent mark for flyball rate the past three years. He’s also striking out in 31.6 percent of his plate appearances, the highest mark he’s had since he first came into the league as a 19-year old rookie. He’s never hit for much of an average, so if his bat is slowing to the point where he can’t hit for much power, he’s not going to be any help at the plate.

The evidence for his bat slowing is sort of muddled with the few numbers we have to look at this early in the year. He’s pulling 27 percent of the balls he makes contact with to the left side of the infield, and then another 26 percent of them to left field. Only 16% of his batted-balls have gone to the right side of the field. Last year, Jones hit 33.4 percent of his batted-balls to the left side of the infield for a batting average of .171, so that pull rate is nothing new.

Jones is hitting .304 on fastballs so far this year, but the only place he’s killing the ball is right down the middle of the plate and outside; he hasn’t been able to do anything effective with inside pitches yet. This makes me think that so far, he’s only been hitting mistakes off of guys who aren’t challenging his bat speed yet. If that’s the case, Jones’ line may not jump to the point where he’s going to be any help for you at a very deep position. Keep an eye on him and watch for improvement or stasis in his batted-ball data, strikeout rate and pitches hit before doing anything rash.

Jose Reyes (hamstring) will be re-evaluated on Monday, but is unsure if he’ll be able to play on Tuesday. Reyes has missed two games since injuring his hamstring while running out a ball on Friday, and said Sunday that his hamstring felt “a little better.” Despite the uncertainty, he should probably remain in weekly lineups. (Rotoworld)

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Rich Hill is now the Cubs’ fifth starter, and that the team will skip the spot as off days allow. Jason Marquis has been bumped up in the rotation, and will start Friday against the Pirates. Hill will start Saturday, and appears to be on a short leash. “We’ve got [Sean] Marshall and [Jon] Lieber that deserve an opportunity also. I’m not talking about now. I’m talking down the road a little bit,” Piniella said. (Rotoworld)

Brian Wilson picked up his third save of the season Sunday, tossing a scoreless ninth inning during the Giants’ 7-4 win over the Cardinals. Giants RP Brian Wilson pitched the ninth inning Sunday against the Cardinals to earn his third save in four chances for despite giving up back-to-back singles to start the inning. The Giants closer got out of the jam by striking out Ludwick and Chris Duncan before Rico Washington flew out to center to end the game. Since Tyler Walker struggled Saturday, Wilson ’s leash is a little longer. (Rotowire)

Tim Lincecum turned in a gem Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing just two runs over six innings with 11 strikeouts to just one walk in the Giants’ win in a 7-4 game on Sunday. Lincecum needed 23 pitches to get out of the first inning Sunday against the Cardinals, but settled in after that, walking one and giving up six hits, three of which were doubles. He shouldn’t get used to run support like he received today, but Lincecum is good enough when he’s on that he should garner a fair number of wins anyway. The win moved Lincecum to 2-0 on the season with a 2.25 ERA. If he pitches with command like he did Sunday more often, he’s going to be awfully tough to beat, no matter how poor the Giants’ offense is. He gets the Cardinals again next time out. (Rotoworld, Rotowire)

Corey Hart collected four hits as the Brewers beat the Mets 9-7 on Sunday. He opened with a leadoff single in the second and fourth; followed a Bill Hall flyout in the fifth with his third single and finished with a RBI single in the sixth. He popped out in his last at-bat, but still managed to raise his average to .295. All four hits were singles for Hart, who drove in one and and scored once. The right fielder entered the game batting .231 and he still doesn’t have his first homer of the season. Hart came into the game without a hit in his previous eight at-bats, but made sure to rectify those woes with his third multi-hit game in seven outings. Hart still doesn’t have a home run through two weeks, but he has four RBI and three stolen bases. Hopefully the power will come soon, but Hart still remains a top 25 Fantasy OF. (Rotoworld, CBS Sports)

Chipper Jones went 3-for-5 with a homer but the Braves still lost to the Nationals 5-4 on Sunday. The homer was a two-run shot off starter Tim Redding. Jones also doubled and singled in the contest and is hitting .408 in the early going. (Rotoworld)

Cubs starter Jason Marquis gave up two runs and four hits in five innings Sunday at Philadelphia in his latest start. He turned a two-run lead over to Michael Wuertz, who didn’t retire a batter in the sixth. Marquis did not factor in the final decision. He had just two strikeouts and walked five batters in the game. Marquis originally was supposed to start Thursday, but got pushed back because he was ill. He was 12-9 last season with a 4.60 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 191 2/3 innings. Fantasy owners should expect more of the same from him this season, making him a useful starter on weeks when he faces very favorable matchups or two starts. He won’t get two starts in Fantasy Week 3, but does have a decent matchup against a pedestrian Pirates offense. (CBS Sports)

Braves 1B Mark Teixeira went 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored Sunday at Washington. He also walked. It was only his second two-hit game of the year, but he’s batting .333 (5-for-15) over his last three games. Teixeira usually starts slowly, but his bat might finally be coming around. He has the potential to hit .300 with 40 home runs over the course of a season, so stick with him through this early cold spell. As a free-agent-to-be, he could be on the verge of a career year. Keep him active in all formats. (CBS Sports)

Overall Standings

Rank Team                Batting Pitching Total Dif  Behind
---- ------------------- ------- -------- ----- ---- ------
 1   Goodfellas          31.0    42.0     73.0  -4.0 0.0
 2   Shoeless Jews       38.0    30.0     68.0  3.5  5.0
 3   The Pi Train        31.0    35.0     66.0  8.5  7.0
 4   X-Men               24.5    36.5     61.0  -0.5 12.0
 5   Misogynistic Padres 40.0    13.0     53.0  -8.0 20.0
 6   Uncle Lester        14.5    37.5     52.0  -6.0 21.0
 7   Atomic Roadrunners  18.0    30.0     48.0  10.5 25.0
 8   Stanimals           34.0    10.5     44.5  -3.5 28.5
 8   Cover Zero          26.5    18.0     44.5  -2.0 28.5
 10  Get Off Kong!       17.5    22.5     40.0  1.5  33.0

Yesterday's Stats

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (4/13/08)
Player                        BA HR R RBI   SB
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Davis, Rajai OF SF        0.0000  0 0   0    0
Dewitt, Blake 3B LA       0.3333  0 0   0    0
Fielder, Prince 1B MIL    0.0000  0 0   0    0
Hart, Corey C. RF MIL     0.8000  0 1   1    0
Jones, Andruw CF LA       0.0000  0 0   0    0
Jones, Chipper 3B ATL     0.6000  1 1   2    0
Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN  0.0000  0 0   0    1
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM     0.0000  0 0   0    0
Ruiz, Carlos C PHI        0.3333  0 1   0    0
Spilborghs, Ryan CF COL   1.0000  0 0   0    0
Teixeira, Mark 1B ATL     0.5000  0 1   0    0
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC      0.5000  0 0   0    0
Valentin, Javier C CIN    0.0000  0 0   0    0
Victorino, Shane CF PHI   0.0000  0 0   0    0

Atomic Roadrunners Players Yesterday (4/13/08)
Player                       ERA  K S   W WHIP
------------------------- ------ -- - --- ----
Lincecum, Tim SP SF         3.00 11 0   1 1.17
Wilson, Brian RP SF         0.00  2 1   0 2.00