Daily ArchiveTuesday, May 2nd, 2006
Posted on May 2, 2006 by Andrew Flynn
Afternoon Notes
RotoAuthority’s Tim Dierkes has some research on BABIP:
According to Baseball Prospectus, the definition of BABIP:
“Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher’s average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher’s defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.”
Last year, eleven pitchers had a BABIP below .270: Clemens, Zito, Blanton, Pedro, Zambrano, Wakefield, Chen, Contreras, Benson, Santana, and Marquis. The lowest was Clemens at .248.
I think it’s fairly safe to say that pitchers with BABIPs below .250 cannot expect it to last. The following pitchers all have a BABIP of .230 or lower currently (remember, no one did this last year).
Taylor Buchholz - .125
…This seems likely to be a first time around the league type thing. Same goes for Buchholz and Bannister. Even Verlander, but probably to a lesser extent because his stuff is nasty. While their 15 minutes may not be up and some of these guys will be decent, it is time to start thinking about selling high.
And BP’s Will Carroll clarifies the Wood rehab:
I’m apparently as smart as a lugnut. Kerry Wood will not be a Lugnut, as I stated yesterday, since the Cubs now have an affiliation with the Peoria Chiefs. The error is entirely mine, exacerbated by the fact that his May 7th start will come against the Lugnuts. Everything else in my report is accurate and I apologize for the error.
Lastly, some injury news:
Reds placed outfielder Cody Ross on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 29, with a bruised left pinkie. Ross was hurt when he was hit by a pitch in his first plate appearance for the Reds. Chris Denorfia will replace him off the bench.
Posted on May 2, 2006 by Andrew Flynn
Overnight Dispatches
Courtesy RotoTimes and RotoWorld:
Two days after his worst start of the season, Jason Vargas was removed from the Marlins rotation and sent to the bullpen. Josh Johnson will replace Vargas, who is now the only lefty in Florida’s bullpen. Vargas has a 5.70 ERA after five starts. It doesn’t seem fair that Vargas goes when Brian Moehler has a 9.82 ERA and is still in the rotation, but the 23-year-old has walked 20 in 23 2/3 innings and that couldn’t be allowed to continue. Vargas should bounce back soon enough and have some value in NL-only leagues over the final four months.
Gary Majewski has given up seven runs in his last four outings and could be running out of chances in Washington, according to the Washington Post. When asked if Majewski was in danger of losing the right to pitch in the seventh and eighth innings of close games, Frank Robinson said, “He’s pitching himself into position [where] he may not even have the chance unless it’s at [Class AAA] New Orleans. That’s what he’s doing.”
Moises Alou was out of the Giants’ lineup on Monday with a sore left hip but expects to be able to play this afternoon, according to the Contra Costa Times. The Giants have Steve Finley making a start tonight.
Kerry Wood (shoulder) is expected to throw five innings on Tuesday for the rookie league Mesa Cubs. If Wood’s outing goes well his next step is to make several minor league rehab appearances as he works to build arm strength and stamina. He is still at least two weeks from returning.
Mets optioned outfielder Victor Diaz to Triple-A Norfolk. Diaz got one at-bat in four days with the Mets. Manager Willie Randolph could have played him in right field when Xavier Nady was given Sunday off, but he chose Endy Chavez instead.
Jeff DaVanon, back in center field after two days off, went 0-for-4 on Monday night. He’s now in a 4-for-32 slump. Eric Byrnes should have had a homer on Saturday (Randy Winn went over the wall to rob him) and did have an RBI triple on Sunday, so DaVanon is likely looking at less playing time for now. Byrnes will definitely play against the left-hander on Tuesday, leaving manager Bob Melvin to choose between DaVanon and Shawn Green for one spot.
Mark Mulder was charged with six runs in five-plus innings Monday in a loss to the Reds. Mulder allowed two runs through five, but he gave up a double and three singles to start the sixth. Both runners he left on base came around to score off Josh Hancock. It was the first loss for Mulder. He’s had four quality starts in six tries, with his only two rough outings coming against the Reds.
Rich Aurilia hit his fifth homer of the season off the Cardinals’ Mark Mulder on Monday night. Aurilia has more at-bats against righties, but all five of his homers have come off southpaws. With Brandon Phillips playing so well, it’s unlikely that Aurilia will see any starts against righties in the foreseeable future. He has some fantasy value while playing strictly against lefties, but he’s not going to keep this up.
Posted on May 2, 2006 by Andrew Flynn
May 2nd - Standings and Statistics
Standings: 5th Place - 72 points 7.5 out of first GOK 79.5 / SJ 77.5 / C0 73 / Pi 73 / AARR / X 71.5 HR AVG RBI R SB W ERA WHIP K'S S -- --- --- --- --- --- ---- ----- --- --- 40 .2624 177 167 26 13 3.78 1.345 149 8 T-4 8TH 1ST T-1 T-1 T-6 3RD 6TH 9TH T-5 BOX SCORE FOR 05.01 Atomic Roadrunners ab r h bi | bb so avg --------------------------------------------------------- Johnny Estrada Ari C 4 0 1 0 | 0 0 .297 Mike Lieberthal Phi C 4 1 1 1 | 0 0 .293 Prince Fielder Mil 1B 2 1 0 0 | 2 1 .337 Jeff Kent LAD 2B 4 0 1 0 | 0 2 .186 Khalil Greene SD SS 3 1 1 0 | 1 0 .205 Adrian Gonzalez SD 1B 4 0 0 1 | 0 2 .245 J.J. Hardy Mil SS 4 0 0 0 | 0 1 .269 Adam Dunn Cin OF 4 1 1 0 | 0 0 .264 Dave Roberts SD OF 4 2 2 2 | 0 0 .244 Jeff DaVanon Ari OF 4 0 0 0 | 0 1 .292 Jose Reyes NYM SS 5 0 2 0 | 0 1 .257 --------------------------------------------------------- Totals 42 6 9 4 | 3 8 .214 --------------------------------------------------------- RBI: MLieberthal 1(7), AGonzalez 1(13), DRoberts 2(7) 2B: JEstrada 1(3), ADunn 1(3), DRoberts 1(2), JReyes 1(5) GIDP: JDaVanon 1(4) PITCHING ip h r er bb ibb so bf era whip ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dan Wheeler L(0-1) 1.7 2 2 2 1 0 1 8 10.59 1.76 Mark Mulder L(2-1) 5.0 8 6 6 2 0 5 25 10.80 2.00 Matt Wise W(2-1) 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.00 1.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals 7.7 11 8 8 3 0 6 36 9.35 1.82 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- RESERVE HITTING ab r h bi | bb so avg --------------------------------------------------------- Rich Aurilia Cin 2B 4 1 1 1 | 1 2 .293 Ben Johnson SD OF 1 0 0 0 | 0 0 .226 --------------------------------------------------------- Totals 5 1 1 1 | 1 2 .200 --------------------------------------------------------- RBI: RAurilia 1(13) HR: RAurilia 1(5) RESERVE PITCHING ip h r er bb ibb so bf era whip ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Gary Majewski L(1-2) 0.7 1 1 0 1 0 1 5 0.00 2.86 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals 0.7 1 1 0 1 0 1 5 0.00 2.86 ----------------------------------------------------------------------