Atomic RoadRunners | Andrew Flynn’s High-Energy Fantasy Baseball

Courtesy of ESPN Fantasy, the Week 1 Forecast, compiled by Tristan Cockroft:

The Roadrunners have two pitchers that are going twice in week one:

Doug Davis
4/3, PIT (Ol. Perez), 4/8, ARI (C. Vargas)
(14-10 record, 3.08 ERA, .221 BAA in 39 career GS at Miller Park)

Brandon Webb
4/3, @COL (Jennings), 4/9, @MIL (Capuano)

Also, two Roadrunners get shout-outs in the “Hot Streak” section:

Jason Vargas (FLA) was 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 21 spring innings. He faces the Mets and Steve Trachsel, making him worthy of NL-only attention.

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) batted .347 with seven homers and 15 RBI in 23 spring games. Everyone thinks he’ll struggle in the power department at RFK Stadium, but with the Nationals on the road all week, expect a hot start.

No Roadrunners were mentioned in the Cold Streak section.

In her Transaction Analysis today on BP, Christina Kahrl outlines the ramifications of the Dodgers’ signing of Jeff Kent to a contract extension:

Signed 2B-R Jeff Kent to a $11.5 million contract extension through 2007, with a club option for 2008: [3/29]

What better posterboy for a ballclub in America’s most attention deficit-driven city than the man who doesn’t even follow his own profession? Cattiness aside, Kent’s aging well, so I can see why they’d want to keep him. However, saying this is an $11.5 million deal undersells how much it might cost the team: it’s two years at $9 million apiece ($500K buyout of the second season), a $2 million signing bonus, plus another $2.35 million in incentives. So, it’s potentially a $22.35 million deal, and not for this next season, but for Kent’s Age 39 and 40 seasons. That gets a bit steep at the stage of a player’s career where certainty becomes wishcasting.

She also whips on the Mets’ management, but not about Heilman like Jay Jaffe did below.  No, this time it’s an explanation following the Mets’ release of possible 5th outfielder Tike Redman, thus ensuring Endy Chavez is the only #5:

As the club’s fifth outfielder, Chavez might have better job security than the notional fourth outfielder, who would be whichever guy loses the fight for the job in right. Xavier Nady has gone stone cold, and not in that happy anti-hero pro wrestling sort of way, but more along the lines of the godawful laugh-out-loud bad Brian Bosworth vehicle, Stone Cold. It would actually be a pretty happy result if Victor Diaz won the job away from Xavier Nady anyway: Diaz would get 400-500 plate appearances, Nady could be freed up for spot duty in the infield corners, spot starts against lefties, and pinch-hitting, and Chavez could stick to pinch-running and defensive substitution work. I don’t mean to put Nady down, but Diaz could end up being the sort of hitter who helps the Mets as a regular for the next five years, and that should be cultivated. If Willie Randolph is flexible enough to do all of that this year, we should all be impressed. 

Word, sister!

In today’s BP Staff Roundtable, several Roadrunners were named as potential post-season award winners for 2006:

For NL Cy Young:

1. Jake Peavy

2. Roy Oswalt

3. Brandon Webb

10. Doug Davis

12. Mark Mulder

For NL Rookie-of-the-Year:

1. Prince Fielder

2. Jeremy Hermida

3. Ryan Zimmerman

The Roadrunners didn’t fare so well in the MVP voting, with Adam Dunn (13th) and Jeff Kent (18th) being the only mentions.

In today’s Baseball Prospectus chat session, Jay Jaffe wasn’t so kind to Mets management, or their prospects.  Bring forth the truth, Brother Jaffe!

I think the Mets went the wrong way this past offseason. They got a crap return on Cameron in Xavier Nady. They wasted a ton of resources on Paul Lo Duca when they had the very capable Ramon Castro in the fold. They thinned their starting pitching to acquire mediocre relievers, including Jorge Julio, my pick to make the Shea faithful pine for late-period Mel Rojas. They decided to keep potentially their second-best starter in Aaron Heilman in the bullpen. They didn’t sink the cost of Kaz Matsui. They didn’t slap Willie Randolph silly until he was disabused of the notion that Jose Reyes is a leadoff hitter. Need I continue?

Bottom line: this is an organization that’s in a lot more peril than some people think. 

But Jay, keep Reyes in the leadoff slot - Roadrunners need to run.

Courtesy of RotoWorld:

Johnny Estrada
Johnny Estrada finished 2-for-3 with a homer on Thursday and is batting .477 this spring. The Diamondbacks quickly abandoned thoughts of hitting Estrada second and they’re going to sit him in favor of Chris Snyder against most lefties, so it’s going to he tough for the ex-Brave to generate a lot of fantasy value. Still, he will have Chase Field helping him out. .285-10-60 is within reach.

Adrian Gonzalez
The Padres confirmed Thursday that Ryan Klesko (shoulder) would begin the year on the disabled list, making Adrian Gonzalez the team’s Opening Day first baseman. Geoff Blum could also see some action at first base against left-handers. Klesko will have to sit out at least the first six games.

Rich Aurilia
Rich Aurilia homered and walked in three plate appearances Thursday against the Red Sox. Aurilia’s nearly been a forgotten man with Tony Womack getting most of the starts at second base and Ryan Freel obviously being the best choice to get most of the starts at second base. Aurilia’s a better solution than Womack if Freel’s not going to be used, but he might start out getting the majority of his playing time as a first baseman against lefties.

Ryan Franklin
Ryan Franklin will begin the season in the bullpen, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel confirmed on Thursday. Franklin wasn’t a very good bet in NL-only leagues as a starter, and while he will be a candidate for wins while pitching in middle relief, there should be better alternatives out there for fantasy teams.

Fox Sports’ excellent Ken Rosenthal, who managed to be scoop numero uno during the Winter Meetings, has come out with his predictions for the 2006 season, and two Roadrunners have made his cut:

NL Rookie: Prince Fielder, first baseman, Brewers
Favorite race of ‘em all — Marlins right fielder Jeremy Hermida, Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and Diamondbacks first baseman [and former Roadrunner] Conor Jackson are among the other legitimate candidates. Fielder figures to draw more attention playing for a team on the rise, and also figures to hit for the most power — though D-Backs manager Bob Melvin predicts that Jackson will be a “monster.”

NL home run champ: Adam Dunn, left fielder, Reds
Dunn, a top-four finisher in this category each of the past two seasons, is at the right age, 26, and playing in the right park, Great American, for a 50-homer breakout.

Brief notes on Atomic RoadRunners from Rotowire:

Moises Alou
Alou has struggled in his minimal amount of time with the Giants so far this spring, hitting just .176 over 18 at-bats with one home run.  Eighteen at-bats isn’t enough to get worried over. Last year Alou struggled through April but turned in a good year when he wasn’t injured. Look for a quality year from Alou if he can remain off the disabled list.

Brandon Webb
Webb pitched in a minor league game for the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, the team web site reports. In five innings, Webb gave up eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits (no walks, five strikeouts, 93 pitches).      We’ve been touting Webb all spring, but all of a sudden, he’s given up 21 runs in 13 innings over his last three outings. Both Webb and the team said they felt good about they way he threw Wednesday. That means the D-Backs appear ready to discount Webb’s recent results as just one of those spring things, perhaps compounded by the fact he and his wife have just become first-time parents. If that’s the case, it may be a good thing that Webb’s first two starts of the season will come on the road, as it may be the first time in a few weeks he’s gotten a good night’s sleep.

Kerry Wood
Wood will pitch to hitters Friday in Las Vegas for the first time since undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder last Aug. 31, the Chicago Sun-Times reports.      Pitching coach Larry Rothschild has said that once Wood begins facing hitters, his rehab should accelerate quickly. There remains hope among Cubs officials that Wood could pitch for the team as soon as the last week of April.

Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez has played his way onto the Padres’ Opening Day roster, and he might even begin the year as the starter at first base with Ryan Klesko’s shoulder possibly putting him on the DL, the Associated Press reports.      Gonzalez has hit well since returing from the WBC, going .400 with two homers and six RBI. Given Klesko’s age and decline last year, it’s not a stretch to suggest the Padres aren’t losing much by replacing him with Gonzalez.

Gary Majewski
Majewski threw a scoreless inning on Wednesday, on the heels of rough outings in three of his last four appearances and a shaky outing in the WBC, the Associated Press reports.      “I’m where I need to be,” Majewski said, adding that he liked the movement on his fastball. “After today, I don’t feel I’m that far behind.”

Ryan Franklin
Franklin might well be headed to the bullpen now that the Phillies have announced Gavin Floyd will start the year in their rotation, their  official site reports.      The move is not official yet, as unnamed club sources have indicated he is the choice to be bumped from the rotation. Charlie Manuel has not tipped his hand. Franklin’s agent and brother said: “We knew there was an outside chance that might happen. If it happens, Ryan is prepared to do whatever it takes to help the Phillies win.” Franklin has pitched well this spring, with a 2-1 record and a 3.57 ERA in 17 2/3 innings.

Adam Dunn
Dunn hit his fifth homer of the spring against the Devil Rays on Wednesday.      Dunn will spend most of his time in left field this year, but if/when Scott Hatteberg flops or needs a day off, Dunn will go to first base instead.

Rich Aurilia
Reds manager Jerry Narron still is fairly tight-lipped about the starting second base job, but has implied that all three of Aurilia, Ryan Freel and Tony Womack will play there, the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.      “We’re going to try to keep all three guys sharp,” he said. “We’re going to go with matchups and try to get the best nine guys out there. “Rich is going to play a lot of second, first and some shortstop. Freel will play a lot of outfield and some second. Womack will play primarily second, but we’ll use him as a pinch hitter, as a pinch runner.”

Jeff Kent
Kent has signed a one-year contract extension with the team that includes an option for 2008, reports the  team’s official site.      This comes as a mild surprise considering Kent just turned 38 on March 8th, but you can’t exactly say that he’s on a steep decline. Kent belted 29 homers and drove in 105 last year while posting his highest OBP (.377) since his MVP year in 2000. Since the Dodgers don’t have any elite second base prospects that are knocking on the door, this should help bridge the gap, potentially to Blake DeWitt in 2008.

Matt Wise
Wise appears to be over he injuries that dogged him at the end of the 2005 season.      Wise will begin the season as one of the top setup guys for the Brewers. 

ESPN’s Eric Karabell blogs about the danger of overlooking Doug Davis:

While trying to decide who my last of 12 keepers should be in a league that had its deadline this past weekend, I had an epiphany. I’m calling it the Doug Davis epiphany.

Who is Doug Davis? A few years ago, he was some obscure lefty with nasty — bad nasty, not what the kids say, good nasty — numbers that nobody figured would turn into a fantasy asset. I drafted this fella when he was a Texas Ranger, and he went 11-10 with a 4.45 ERA and WHIP of 1.55. I took a chance again two years later in a real deep mixed league when he was bad for Texas and worse for Toronto, and finally he wound up a Brewer. My team was in the tank by that point, so I held on to him and … lo and behold Davis was all of a sudden good, with a 2.58 ERA in eight NL starts. So I kept him.

I still have him, and I’m keeping him again. Are you aware that only four pitchers in baseball had more strikeouts than Doug Davis last season? Yep, that Doug Davis.

Davis is a lot better than people think. He doesn’t win games — or shall we say he hasn’t won games — but don’t blame him. He’s not paid to drive in runs. Davis was actually better than teammate Chris Capuano in every category that matters, including ERA and WHIP, but Capuano won 18 games. Davis won 11. It’s luck. And it could easily be reversed this season.

The point here is, there are a bunch of examples out there of players who didn’t put up the stats you think he did. Davis had more strikeouts than just about every pitcher in baseball, including Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Roger Clemens and John Lackey. Davis had 208 Ks! Seven pitchers struck out that many hitters in 2004, but only three pitchers topped that total in 2003. So Davis deserves credit. It’s not easy to strike out 200 hitters. For one, you have to make a lot of starts. A year ago I considered him my Steve Trachsel, a guy nobody seems to want who is reliable. You know what? Davis is too good to be Trachsel! 

ESPN’s Tristan Cockroft had praise for two Roadrunners in his NL Bold Predictions column:

On Ryan Zimmerman:

Rookie of the Year (NL): Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: Yes, he plays in a bad ballpark, which will hurt his power numbers, but what’s wrong with a whole bunch of doubles (think 40-plus)? Zimmerman will get 81 road games, in which he could rack up 10 homers, and if he adds five more at home, that’s a solid 15-homer year, plus a solid batting average to boot. The comparisons to a young Brooks Robinson have already started, and hitting fifth or sixth, Zimmerman should be a fine fantasy source of RBI with a high batting average.

On Jason Vargas:

The Marlins’ Jason Vargas will be the most surprising starter on a losing team, finishing with numbers much like the ones Doug Davis has enjoyed in Milwaukee the past couple seasons. 

ESPN’s Scott Engel has some cautionary words on the status of Armando Benitez.

Fantasy owners of Armando Benitez should have concerns. It’s only spring training, but a bad outing is still a bad outing, and he allowed nine runs in 1.2 innings Monday. Benitez has battled injury problems this spring, so consider picking up Tim Worrell and also consider Merkin Valdez if you have room on your bench.

Today’s BP UTK column mentions the future of Ryan Klesko, which will have a direct effect on Adrian Gonzalez.

Expect Ryan Klesko to lose playing time and end up as trade bait by mid-season. Injuries have increasingly reduced his ability to stay in the lineup.

BP’s Christina Kahrl posits that Brandon Watson might not be the best OF choice in Washington. Join the crowd.

Watson over Church? Watson over Church? Sweet Jeebus, not even Sherlock Holmes would make that choice. Talk about taking the edge off of the bittersweet joy that comes with having Clayton represent an upgrade, not to mention coming to terms with a ballclub that has the interchangeably unthreatening lefty bats of Ward, Michael Tucker, and Marlon Anderson. Now, maybe this is all about motivating people, because Church did have a lousy camp, while Watson did what he had to do to resemble the leadoff hitter that Frank Robinson wishes he had.

Will Carroll provides an update on Kerry Wood in yesterday’s Under the Knife column at Baseball Prospectus:

The Cubs are ahead of schedule. Yes, I typed that correctly. Both Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are ahead of most estimates for their return. While both remain risky red lights, they’re both making progress. My Cubs source says both are working hard on their individual programs, actually needing the Cubs staff to consistently hold them back a bit. Overdoing it isn’t the best way to get healthy or stay healthy, but the spirit has to be considered a positive. Wood is a bit ahead of his late April return.

According to the Tampa Tribune, the Mets and Devil Rays are considering a trade to send Aaron Heilman (he of the 4th-best-starter-that’s-been-relegated-back-to- the-pen because of the best 16 innings pitched by Brian Bannister - lifetime) in exchange for middle infielder Julio Lugo. According to Rotoworld, Heilman would start immediately should the trade be made. Mets reliever Heath Bell has also been mentioned in talks. If consummated, it would certainly turn out better than the last deal, that send uber-stud Scott Kazmir to the Devil Fish for Victor Zambrano.

It’s going to be easier to determine the first cut of the year for the FAAB Fairy.  Possibly Phillies #5 starter (and steroid guilty-sign holder) Ryan Franklin will most likely start the season in the Phillies bullpen, as a strong spring has secured the rotation spot for Gavin Floyd.  Franklin had a 3.57 ERA this spring, but Clearwater might be the most friendly park he’ll appear in for some time.

From Baseball Prospectus 2006:

Flyball pitchers with low stikeout rates face long enough odds in the big leagues.  First thy have to hope for a home park that turns flyballs into long outs instead of homers.  They also need pinpoint control to prevent extra baserunners, minimizing the damage when they serve up a cookie . . . and they need luck and good defense to mitigate all the batters who don’t strike out and instead put the ball in play . . .  Wisely non-tendered by Seattle, Franklin signed with Philadelphia.  Avert your eyes.