Atomic RoadRunners

Padres almost-rookie Mat Latos was profiled in MinorLeagueBall.com’s “Not a Rookie” series.  John Sickels had this to say:

Mat Latos was an 11th round pick in the 2006 draft, out of high school in Coconut Creek, Florida. His draft position was deceptive: he was considered a first round candidate on talent alone, but fell down draft boards because of excessive bonus demands, a University of Oklahoma commitment, and worries about his makeup and personality.

Latos had health problems in 2008, missing much of the season with a strained oblique and a sore shoulder. He pitched well when healthy, seeing action for the Arizona League Padres, Eugene again, and Fort Wayne in the Midwest League, combining for a 2.57 ERA with a 69/13 K/BB in 56 innings. Scouts reported continued progress with fastball and breaking ball command, as well as an improved changeup. I gave him another Grade B in the 2009 book, writing that if he stayed healthy he’d be one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Overall in his minor league career, Latos went 12-8, 2.49 with a 216/47 K/BB in 185 innings, allowing 149 hits. That’s outstanding: K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, all terrific, FIPS excellent, everything was as good as it could be sabermetrically.

His major league statistics weren’t quite as good: his K/IP dropped from 8.8 at San Antonio to 6.9 in San Diego, while his walk rate jumped from 1.7 to 4.1. I think that’s just normal adjustment: keep in mind that he was just 21 last year. If he had attended college at Oklahoma, 2009 would have been his draft year. If a guy jumped directly from college to the majors and posted these numbers in 51 innings, everyone would be drooling over him.

There are two worries with Latos: his makeup, and his health. Latos has an, um, unusual personality. The positive spin is that he’s a free-spirit. The negative spin is best expressed by this quote from the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:   “He tends to reject structure, lacks a commitment to improve and rubs teammates the wrong way with his flippant attitude.” Descriptions I heard from informed observers in 2008 ranged from “he’s just a different guy” to “what a jackass.” His personality seemed to settle down in 2009, and he didn’t look out of place on the major league diamond. Indeed, he has a strong mound presence. You don’t have to be a choir boy to be a successful major league player, and at this point I’m not overly concerned about the makeup issue.

I am worried about his arm. He lost much of 2008 with the shoulder and oblique issues, and shoulder stuff always worries me. I also think his delivery looks awkward, to my eye anyway, like it puts stress on his elbow and shoulder. Other people, including some experts who know more about pitching mechanics than I do, disagree about this, but every time I see him pitch I think “he’s gonna get hurt.” Your mileage may vary.

In any event, if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he’d come in under the 50-inning limit, I’d rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher’s list.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams recently recapped the latest rumors on a Prince Fielder extension:

It’s good to be Prince Fielder. At 25 years old, he’s one of the most feared bats in the National League, entering the second year of a two-year, $18MM contract, and according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Anthony Witrado, he’s worry-free when it comes to his next contract.

Fielder addressed several reporters today at Brewers On Deck, a day-long fan festival held in Milwaukee. While it’s no secret that his agent, Scott Boras, aims for every dollar possible for his clients, Fielder says he’s not yet concerned with the situation, and that ultimately, it’s not Boras’ decision:

“In the end, it’s my decision. But as my agent, he’s going to make sure that I have the most information possible about what’s going to benefit me and my family. That’s what it’s about first. My family has to be happy, and then I go from there. There’s no urgency right now as far as that.”

Fielder owns Brewers single-season records in home runs (50 in 2007), walks (110 in 2009), and RBIs (141 in 2009). McCalvy writes that the historical significance of those numbers matters to Fielder. While Boras may be dreaming of the open market with dollar signs in his eyes, if you ask the big man himself, he’s happy where he is and would like to stick around:

“I came up here and I love it here. My thing is I want to stay here as long as possible. For now, I’m here for two more years anyway. All that other stuff, hopefully, will work out.”

Fielder is under team control through the 2011 season, as he’ll be eligible for arbitration one last time after the 2010 season. It’s tough to imagine that the Brewers would want to go through that process, as it could be a record-setting case. For comparison, Mark Teixeira received $12.5MM through his final year of arbitration, a 39% raise from the prior year. That type of raise would put Fielder somewhere around $14.5MM for 2011.

There have been no deadlines set on working out an extension to this point. If he were to reach the open market, Fielder would join a group potentially including Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, and Ryan Howard. Now that’s what I call a free agent class!

This is the final installment of the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner Protected List preview series. Protected lists are due for submission this Monday, February 1st, by midnight, Eastern. Here are the folks that are saying goodbye, as they will not be protected for 2010:

Kyle Blanks
2 Years – $10
.250 Average, 24 Runs, 10 HR, 22 RBI, and 1 steal
Blanks was a top 1B prospect for the Padres, but was moved to the outfield due to the presence of Adrian Gonzalez. To give you a vision, Blanks is like a fatter Frank Thomas in the outfield. He can slug, but he probably should be tethered to first base. He was lost for the season in August with plantar fasciaitis, and just isn’t worth protecting for $10, as he was originally drafted by Misogynistic Padres in the third round of the minor league draft.

Kiko Calero
2 Years – $5
2 Wins, 1.95 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 69 K’s (in 60 innings)
Still a free agent as of this writing, Calero strung together a good season in the Marlins’ pen, but is not a player anyone should consider protecting. No save chances, just some decent WHIP if you need it.

Nick Masset
2 Years – $5
5 Wins, 2.37 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 76 innings)
Like Calero, Masset is another guy that was picked up for ERA and WHIP assistance. The problem with relievers is you can usually never bank on them repeating their performance from year-to-year. One bad outing will taint the stats for three months. Meanwhile, some other scrub is mowing them down, and thus is worth the FAAB flyer in May. Masset just signed a two-year, $2.58 million extension, and will likely be one of the top Reds set-up guys, but not for $5.

Steve Peace
2 Years – $5
.206 Average, 19 Runs, 4 HR, 16 RBI, and 1 steal
Originally picked up by The Pi Train in 2009, Pearce was a second-hand pickup in August. Pearce’s career is at a crossroads, and may already be over, though the Pirates will keep paying him for another year or two. Pearce had a tremendous season in 2007 in AAA as a 1B/OF, but he couldn’t repeat the magic. Pittsburgh got tired of waiting for him to develop, and now he’s behind Garrett Jones and possibly Jeff Clement at 1B, and also may lose out to Jones, Ryan Church, and Brandon Moss in right field (assuming Milledge and McCutchen occupy left and center, respectively). And he keeps getting worse at the plate. Pass.

Ryan Roberts
2 Years – $5
.279 Average, 41 Runs, 7 HR, 25 RBI, and 7 steals
Picked up after the Roadrunner trade of Brandon Phillips, Roberts pretty much was the starting 2B for the Diamondbacks after the deadline trade of Felipe Lopez to Milwaukee, and he filled in rather well. At the end of the season, it was thought that Roberts might have a shot as the starting 2B for 2010, but then the D’backs received Tony Abreu from the Dodgers to complete the Jon Garland deal, and then signed a below-market-value Kelly Johnson in January. Now either Roberts or Abreu is the primary middle-infield backup, assuming the D’backs can move Augie Ojeda. Roberts also can play 3B and OF, so he’s a handy guy to have around. Obviously, not worth protecting.

Rusty Ryal
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 11 Runs, 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 0 steals
If Ryan Roberts isn’t worth protecting, what does that mean for Roberts’ backup in Rusty Ryal? Bad news, that’s what. Ryal was called up in August to help out, and to his credit, he filled in at first and second base once it was clear the Diamondbacks were phoning it in. He did hit 17 homers and 70 RBI with a .290 average at AAA Reno, but quite obviously, there’s no protections here.

Delwyn Young
2 Years – $5
.266 Average, 40 Runs, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and 2 steals
Young was given every chance to earn the 2B job after the Pirates traded Freddy Sanchez to the Giants at the deadline. The fact that Pittsburgh traded for Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura is an indication of how that experiment went. Pirates GM Neal Huntington has announced that Young will be on the squad in a utility role, as he can play OF corners, 2B, and a passable 1B (though he’d be forth or fifth on that depth chart). Not really protectable material.

Today we have the fourth installment in the my series of 2010 Protected List columns – The Fringe. These guys could go either way, with a lot of factors ultimately determining whether they make the cut. Of last year’s Fringe (Blake DeWitt, Jody Gerut, Chris Dickerson), two were protected, while hindsight said that I was 0-for-3 on that score. So, lesson learned, here goes this year’s attempt, in which I try to be more discerning:

John Baker
2 Years – $5
.271 Average, 59 Runs, 9 HR, 50 RBI, and 0 steals
Baker was selected in the 2009 auction, and didn’t seem to have that great a season. In fact, it often seemed that he was slumping and losing playing time to platoon partner Ronny Paulino, but his totals actually made his $5 salary worthwhile. Due to the Roadrunner roster crunch, it’s between Baker and Buster Posey, who is cheaper and has more upside.

Verdict: Release

Matt Diaz
2 Years – $5
.313 Average, 56 Runs, 13 HR, 58 RBI, and 12 steals
Seemingly as usual, Diaz was an early-season pickup and produced some decent numbers in a platoon in the Braves outfield, shared with Garrett Anderson. Normally a .280 hitter, the 2009 average was a surprise, as were the 12 steals. Most projection systems have him earning between $9-14 for 2010, so likely to be protected this year, unless the Braves sign Johnny Damon or Jermaine Dye in the next few days before the deadline.

Verdict: Probable Protection – Game Day Decision

[Update: Protected]

Mat Gamel
2 Years – $5
.242 Average, 11 Runs, 5 HR, 20 RBI, and 1 steal
Gamel was protected as a minor leaguer and was one of Milwaukee’s top prospects coming into 2010. He was called up in May, but languished on the bench, as the hot hand of Casey McGehee manned third base. A defensive liability, he has lost most of his luster as a hitter, his strong 2008 may now be an outlier.

Verdict: Release

Ryan Hanigan
2 Years – $5
.263 Average, 22 Runs, 3 HR, 11 RBI, and 0 steals
Hanigan took over from Ramon Hernandez in July, and at a glance, seemed to do a good job, especially when it came to batting average. However, reviewing his stats, there’s just nothing there. The re-signing of Hernandez by the Reds relegated Hanigan to backup duty again, and most agree that will be his role for the next decade.

Verdict: Release

Chase Headley
1 Year – $5
.262 Average, 62 Runs, 12 HR, 64 RBI, and 10 steals
Headley has been on the RoadRunners since midway through the 2007 season, when he was gunning for the Texas League MVP. Stuck in left field due to the arrival of Kevin Kouzmanoff the past two seasons, Headley should be the starter at the hot corner in 2010 with the Crushin’ Russian’s departure to Oakland. Headley’s numbers should look better at 3B, and those steals are a bit of a surprise.

Verdict: Protect

Angel Pagan
2 Years – $5
.306 Average, 54 Runs, 6 HR, 32 RBI, and 14 steals
Pagan was a great pickup mid-season, as he became a starter due to the injuries to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church, who was later traded to Atlanta. .300 average and 14 steals should play everyday, but this is the Mets, who brought in Jason Bay this offseason. But then Carlos Beltran underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, and may miss the first month or two of the season. To counter, the Mets took Lil’ Sarge, Gary Mathews, Jr. off the Angels’ hands, so now Pagan has to compete for the CF job, and eventual 4th OF slot. Too much risk for what would be my 4th OF slot. No thanks.

Verdict: Release

Brendan Ryan
2 Years – $5
.292 Average, 55 Runs, 3 HR, 37 RBI, and 14 steals
Another sneaky fast performer that was picked up mid-season, this time to replace the injured Jose Reyes on the roster. As a starting shortstop, Ryan will have to fend off prospect Travis Greene, as well as middle infield re-tread Julio Lugo, and may find himself batting ninth behind the pitcher due to manager Tony LaRussa’s whims. That said, you pretty much know what you get with him, though the average and steals are probably high-water marks. We’ll look for him as a pick-up or even minor league pick, but the roster spot is too valuable.

Verdict: Release

Edinson Volquez
1 Year – $2
4 Wins, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 47 K’s (in 49 innings)
Volquez was the injury-challenge player acquired from Get Off Kong! in June (Jose Reyes went the other way, neither played again in 2009 – a wash). After several false-starts in rehab, Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery in August, and will likely miss most of the 2010 season, though he is targeting a mid-season return. The protected list isn’t a good place for rehab.

Verdict: Release

Sean West
2 Years – $5
8 Wins, 4.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 70 K’s (in 103 MLB innings)
West was called up from AA to fill in for the injured Andrew Miller in May, and he did alright the first time through the league. He had some great outings, and some rather pedestrian ones as well. He could likely use more seasoning, but would be a decent 5th starter type. But not worth a protected slot.

Verdict: Release

Catcher Buster Posey has been ranked as the 4th best prospect in both Keith Law’s ESPN Top 100, as well as the MLB.com Top 50. Some excerpts:

From Keith Law:

Posey reached the majors less than 14 months after signing his first pro contract on the strength of his bat and his advanced feel for catching, amazing for someone who only became a full-time catcher in 2007. Posey has a short, compact stroke with excellent bat control and sprays the field with line drives. He doesn’t have much raw power on account of his size and the presence of just a little loft in his swing, but he makes up for it with good plate discipline, and he should post good on-base percentages in the majors. As a catcher, he has soft hands and good athleticism behind the dish with a plus arm, unsurprising for someone who was a part-time reliever in college. There’s some concern about Posey’s trouble catching better fastballs — and Giants pitchers do bring the heat — when he reached the majors, but it’s possible that was merely exhaustion from Posey’s first full pro season and rust from the fact that San Francisco brought him up only to have Bruce Bochy let him rot on the bench for three weeks. He could catch every day for the Giants right now if they weren’t too busy throwing money at the likes of Bengie Molina.

From the MLB.com Top 50:

Statistically speaking: While most people talk about Posey’s bat, and for good reason, it should be noted he threw out 46 percent of would-be basestealers in 2009. And he didn’t really take a step back when he jumped from Class A Advanced up to Triple-A. With San Jose, he threw out 49.2 percent; in Fresno, it fell only to 38.1.

Scouting report: Equipped with perhaps the best, and most advanced, hitting approach of anyone on this list, Posey can hit to all fields. While not a huge power guy, he’s got plenty of extra-base pop, and could hit 15-20 HR a year in the bigs. A very good athlete who used to play shortstop, he runs very well for a catcher and has a plus throwing arm. He’s still learning the nuances of playing behind the plate full-time.

Upside potential: An every-day catcher with star potential at the big-league level. The bat is ready to contribute right now if given the chance.

They said it: “He wants to learn, get better and be a key aspect in winning a championship. The best thing you can say about a kid is that he’s a ‘gamer,’ and that’s Buster Posey.” — Andy Skeels, Posey’s manager in San Jose in 2009

He said it: “I’m even more happy to be on a team fighting for a playoff spot. I’m looking forward to the atmosphere.” — After getting called up to the big leagues last September

Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner has been touted in the release of two new prospect rankings today. First ESPN’s Keith Law labels Bumgarner as the 27th best prospect, but MLB.com is more bullish, ranking the young left 10th. Some excerpts:

First from ESPN’s Keith Law:

Bumgarner took a big tumble this year when his velocity gradually declined the deeper he went into the season. It’s possible the velocity drop was just a function of a very young pitcher (he didn’t turn 20 until Aug. 1) who wore down over the course of a long year, but it’s also possible that this is where he’s going to pitch long-term if he works as a starter. Bumgarner throws from a low arm slot — well below 3/4 — and has had some trouble against right-handed hitters since they see the ball very well out of his hand, although the slot gives him good tailing life on his fastball. He throws a slider and changeup and both will flash average or better, but neither was very consistent in 2009, with the slider sometimes showing good tilt but other times going soft on him, allowing hitters to pick up the break earlier. He was 88-93 mph early in the season but just 87-90 by midsummer, and the velocity on his slider and changeup dipped as well. He’s a big kid who has started to fill out and could add more to his 6-foot-4 frame, but the loss of velocity this year and his related difficulty in missing bats raise serious questions about how high his ceiling really is.

And from MLB.com:

Statistically speaking: In his Minor League tenure, Bumgarner has a career 1.65 ERA. He won the Minor League title in 2008 with a 1.46 mark, then finished third with a 1.85 ERA in 2009. After his ERA dropped below 2.00 on June 11, 2008, it never rose above 2.38 at any level (that was its height on June 13, 2009).

Scouting report: Bumgarner’s velocity dropped in the second half of last season, but when he’s firing on all cylinders, he can crank it up into the mid-90s with good life and command. His secondary pitchers continue to improve, with a good breaking ball and a changeup that lags behind a little bit. He’s got a tremendous work ethic and is incredibly competitive on the mound.

Upside potential: With his combination of stuff, command and competitiveness, he’s got front-of-the-rotation potential. He could start that climb by landing the No. 5 spot in the Giants’ rotation this spring.

They said it: “He’s had a good year. He’s a kid we think a lot of. Sure, he came up here on the fast track, but he’s the best choice we have to put out there. He’s the guy who’s probably our best starter in the Minor Leagues.” — Giants manager, Bruce Bochy, on the decision to call up Bumgarner

Today is the third installment in the 2010 Atomic Roadrunner protected list preview. We’ve already identified six players that are keepers, now we’re moving on to “The Probables” – guys that it makes sense to protect, are generally a good value, but wouldn’t be shielded from expansion, if you know what I mean. The problem is that we need three more guys in that scenario – yikes. Here’s the breakdown:

Casey Blake
2 Years – $5
.280 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 79 RBI, and 3 steals
Blake was acquired from The Pi Train in August specifically for his protectability. Typically a model of consistency, Blake has put up roughly a 80/18/80/.275 season each of the past seven seasons. There are no prospects pushing him, and he just finished the first year of a three-year contract. With the ownership and money issues in the Dodgers’ front office, everyone needs a little stability, even if he is 36 yars old. He will run streaky, however.

Madison Bumgarner
2 Years – $2
0 Wins, 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10 K’s (in 10 MLB innings)
12 Wins, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 92 K’s (in 131 High-A and AA innings)
The Giants’ No. 2 prospect behind Posey (below), Bumgarner plowed through Hi-A and AA before getting the call in September. Seeing occasional outings, including one start, Bumgarner impressed, though the loss of velocity as the season progressed was a concern. Still, the 20-year old (yes, 20) is penciled in as the Giants’ No. 5 starter to start 2010.

Mat Latos
2 Years – $5
4 Wins, 4.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 39 K’s (in 50.2 MLB innings)
8 Wins, 1.37 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 73 K’s (in 72.1 Low-A and AA innings)
Latos was picked-up mid-season as a great minor league protection candidate, but the Padres inexplicably allowed him to pitch a meaningless game on September 1st, passing the 50-inning rookie threshold, and then promptly shut him down for the season. Often cited as having an attitude problem, Latos reeled off great minor league innings, and having Petco Park as a home can’t hurt either. Decent flyer for $5 – went for $7 in the November experts draft.

Buster Posey
2 Years – $1
.325 Average, 84 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, and 6 steals (combined Hi-A and AAA numbers – only 17 MLB at-bats)
Posey is the heir apparent behind the plate in San Francisco. However, his value and protectability took a hit when the Giants re-signed Bengie Molina to a one-year contract, almost guaranteeing that Posey starts the season in AAA. Still it’s only $1, but it’s also my second catcher position. There’s no doubt Posey will be a star, but he’d be a much better investment if his contract clock hadn’t started last season.

Drew Stubbs
2 Years – $5
.267 Average, 27 Runs, 8 HR, 17 RBI, and 10 steals
Stubbs was a mid-season pickup, and I was planning on possibly protecting him as a minor leaguer. Lo and behold, the former No. 6 overall pick replaced Willy Taveras in centerfield, and amassed 180 at-bats. The good news is that he made enough of an impression that most are projecting him as the starting CF. While there is debate about his power numbers, everyone is in agreement that he’s worth more than $5.

Yesterday we started off our upcoming protected list preview with the 2010 No Doubters. There were only three, as for the first time since 2006 it didn’t include “Lincecum – $7″. Along with a new rule change that reduces the minimum amount of protectables from 9 to 5, the 2010 Roadrunners may be off to a shaky start. Here’s a look at the next group – the “Almost Automatics”. These guys would be No Doubters except for one or two chinks in the armor. Here’s the breakdown:

Johnny Cueto
1 Year – $5
11 Wins, 4.41 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 132 K’s
Cueto was acquired mid-year from Cover Zero, and shortly after that, the 23-year-old starter had a run-in with Dusty Baker’s School of Young Pitcher Fatigue. It was apparent to the entire world that he was either gassed, hurt, or both, but a 15-day DL stint for a sore hip seemed to cure all. According to most sources, his ERA and WHIP won’t be this bad, as he was lit up a bit in some of those aforementioned starts. Still plenty of potential here, for $5

Chris Iannetta
1 Year – $1
.228 Average, 41 Runs, 16 HR, 52 RBI, and 0 steals
Long-time Roadrunner Iannetta finally was given the starting gig for 2009, but his paltry average allowed Yorvit Torrealba to steal at-bats. Always a power threat, Iannetta suffered a May hamstring injury, and he just wasn’t the same after that. Last season he was a no-doubter, but this season, with the lousy average, and the signing of former Royals starter Miguel Olivo a threat to take more at-bats, Iannetta has some issues to be concerned about. He did sign a three-year, $8.35 million contract extension in early January, so at least he’ll be on the squad. Almost too much drama for $1.

Randy Wells
2 Years – $7
12 Wins, 3.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 104 K’s
Wells was picked up in May, and proceeded to surprise all, earning a sixth-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting (with one 2nd place vote). A converted catcher, Wells survived well in his second and third times through the league. While his ERA can’t possibly be as good, he should be a solid starter for 2010.

With protected rosters due in seven days, it’s time to review the options for the 2010 Roadrunners. As I did the past two seasons, I’ve broken the list into five groups:

• The No Doubters
• The Almost Automatics
• The Probables
• The Fringe
• Not So Much

These should be self-explanatory. First up, the No Doubters:

Prince Fielder
2 Years – $29
.299 Average, 103 Runs, 46 HR, 141 RBI, and 2 steals
Fielder was acquired mid-season in a trade with Get Off Kong!, and thus re-joined the Atomic Roadrunners for his sixth overall season, which is impressive, since he’s only 25 years old. After a power dip in 2008 due (possibly) to a vegetarian diet, the homers (and everything else) returned. Signed to a relatively modest $29 contract, he should again earn his keep in 2010.

Josh Johnson
1 Year – $5
15 Wins, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 191 K’s
Johnson, who just signed a four-year, $39 million contract extension, was touted early on as a Cy Young dark horse, though that would be tough in Florida. He had a lot of innings (209) coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008, but was pretty solid, though he did have a few clunkers that damaged his ERA a bit down the stretch. A potential ace worthy of protection for $5.

Clayton Kershaw
1 Year – $9
8 Wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 185 K’s
Picked up mid-season in a trade with Misogynistic Padres, the 21-year old Kershaw found himself as de-facto staff ace for the Dodgers entering the post-season. He did relatively well, without major flame-outs, but he was gassed after a long season. The toll manager Joe Torre placed on his young arm is worrysome, but Kershaw should definitely deliver $9 worth of value, especially since all reports indicate he’s still improving.

Mets GM Omar Minaya said Friday that the center field job will be an “open competition” between Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr.. And so it begins. Pagan, 28, hit .306/.350/.487 with six homers, 32 RBI and 14 stolen bases over 343 at-bats last season and played solid defense in the outfield, but he’s going to lose playing time to Minaya’s new toy. Matthews, who’s now 35, batted just .250/.336/.361 in 2009 with four homers and four stolen bases in 316 at-bats. He has two bad knees and is no longer a talented defensive outfielder. Let’s all just pray that Carlos Beltran returns quickly. (Rotoworld)

Reds OF Drew Stubbs was one of several NL players featured in today’s Wavier Wired:

Losing Jay Bruce to a wrist injury brought the first rumbles that the Reds’ CF Of The Future would be called up from Triple-A, but it wasn’t until Willy Taveras went down a month later that Stubbs made it to the bigs. When he did, people wondered what took the Reds so long: Stubbs cranked eight dingers in 196 PAs (after just three in 472 Triple-A PAs in 2009), swiped 10 bags and added a 7.6 UZR in just 42 games.

Going into 2010, the Reds CF Of The Future seems to be their CF Of The Present. With no real competition from above (only Dusty Baker could ever see Taveras as an obstacle to Stubbs’ advancement) or below (the other young CF prospect, Chris Dickerson, is likely slotted into LF and has had problems staying healthy), the job should be his in spring training and beyond. But his 2009 performance is a great example of small sample size, since some of those trends aren’t likely to be sustainable.

Stubbs has decent power potential, but it’s not the jaw-dropping kind brought by fellow Reds prospect Juan Francisco, or even the relatively (next to Francisco) modest power of Bruce. Stubbs makes good contact and has excellent speed, so those 94 doubles (and 16 triples) in the minors come as much from his feet as his hands. The .480 SLG he posted in limited time (84 PAs) at Triple-A at the end of 2008 evaporated upon more prolonged exposure in 2009—he hit only one more Triple-A homer in 2009 in 472 PAs.

The same is likely going to happen to his homers in 2010. He’s got the bat speed and the ability to make solid contact that will eventually translate into home runs, but those are a year or two away. Consistent contact is more of an issue with Stubbs. The one aspect of his minor-league career that did show itself in last year’s debut was his strikeout rate: his 27.2 K% with the Reds is almost exactly in line with his 27.3% in the minors.

That K rate has improved each year of his development thus far, so it should continue to do so in the majors, but it’s not going to happen overnight. That means the BA is going to suffer, which will probably always be the case with him. GP doesn’t see much for him in 2010 in either BA or power, with a level of freshman pessimism similar to that expressed with Hanson above.

But note that all of the projections on Fangraphs except Marcel concur with GP’s modest power projections, and only Bill James sees him with category-sealing SB numbers. Still, speed, as they say, never slumps, and Stubbs should steal bases—as long as he can get there in the first place. And as long as he’s got the playing time, which is a big factor in that GP projection.

Shawn Weaver, GP’s Cincinnati writer, has split the CF time among Stubbs, Dickerson, and Taveras, which may certainly happen if Baker continues to favor veterans (particularly punchless ones like Taveras, still signed at $4M through 2010) or if Stubbs struggles. The other wild card is Francisco, who will be shifting to LF in Triple-A after Rolen’s two-year extension. Though he’s got farther to go than Stubbs in development, and shows even worse strikeout tendencies, it’s possible that Francisco pushes Dickerson to CF and a struggling Stubbs to the bench, or even Triple-A.

There’s a lot of moving parts here, and banking on a high-strikeout kid isn’t the best way to spend your budget. If he snags the full-time job and keeps mashing, he’ll beat that GP projection easily, particularly the roto dollar number. But he is much more likely to struggle, which could cut into his counting stats significantly. His speed and potential makes him a worthy gamble, especially in keeper leagues, but restrain yourself and let someone else overbid on that 196-PA sample.

Marlins signed RHP Josh Johnson to a four-year, $39 million contract. Johnson’s future in Florida was in doubt after the two sides reached an impasse with negotiations in November, but coincidental or not, they made considerable progress after MLB and the MLBPA singled out the Marlins for not spending enough of their revenue-sharing money on player payroll. The new contract buys out Johnson’s final two years of arbitration and his first two years of free agency. Johnson, who turns 26 later this month, will earn $3.75 million in 2010, $7.75 million in 2011 and $13.75 million in In 2012 and 2013. Johnson has quickly emerged as one of the National League’s best starters since his return from Tommy John surgery, going 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings with the Marlins last season. (Rotoworld)

The Cubs are negotiating with RHP Kiko Calero, reports FOXSports.com’s Jon Paul Morosi. Calero posted a 1.97 ERA over 60 innings for the Marlins in 2009. A 10.4 K/9 is very attractive, but concerns with his torn rotator cuff in 2008 are scaring teams away from the two-year deal the 35 year old is asking for. Chicago is in need of a late-inning reliever, so Calero makes sense. (Rotoworld)

CBS 5 in San Francisco reports that the Giants have re-signed catcher Bengie Molina to a one-year, $4.5 million contract. It’s a rather surprising turn of events, but it looks like the latest offer by the Mets may have really been “take it or leave it.” Molina will head back to the Giants, presumably as a mentor to young Buster Posey. That said, it’s possible that Posey could now start his season in the minors in order to delay his service time. (Rotoworld)

Also:

4:29pm: SI.com’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Mets offered Molina $5MM-plus, but he took less to return to the Giants. ESPN’s Buster Olney says San Fran is basically at their payroll limit now.

3:50pm: The Giants have re-signed catcher Bengie Molina to a one year deal worth $4.5MM, according to Dennis O’Donnell of CBS 5 Sports in San Francisco. Earlier today we heard that Molina rejected the Mets’ latest offer, and Ken Davidoff of Newsday tweets that the offer was “take it or leave it.”

Molina returns to the Bay Area despite reports that GM Brian Sabean said he believed the backstop had received a multi-year offer elsewhere. He earned $16MM as part of the three year deal he signed with San Francisco back in 2007, and hit .278/.302/.440 with 55 homers while with the Giants. The move all but guarantees that top prospect Buster Posey will start the season back in the minors.

Chris Iannetta believes he will get a “large volume” of starts behind the plate for the Rockies this season. The Royals signed former Royals catcher Miguel Olivo this offseason to push Iannetta, who finished the ‘09 season slowly. “If I am playing like I expect to, I will be in there,” Iannetta said Monday. “I want to play a large volume of the games and let my performance speak for itself.” The 26-year-old batted .228/.344/.460 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI in 289 at-bats last year. (Rotoworld)

Note: The Rockies also signed former Dodger and Marlin catcher Paul LoDuca to a minor league contract today.